ESPN analytics give Stanford the edge in Saturday’s Big Game, but the betting sites have spoken and they disagree.
On Saturday night, FanDuel opened with Cal as a 4.5-point favorite over Stanford, but by 9:30 p.m. Saturday, the point spread had dropped to 3.5 points. On Sunday morning the Golden Bears are still 3.5-point favorites over Stanford on FanDuel.
DraftKings also made Cal a 4.5-point favorite Saturday night, and as of Sunday morning the Bears remain 4.5-point favorites.
.—UPDATE: DraftKings reduced its point spread at midday Sunday. Cal is just a 3-point favorite.over Stanford on the DraftKings site at noon Sunday.—
—UPDATE 2: FanDuel reduced its point spread Sunday afternoon. Cal is only a 2.5-point favorite over the Cardinal at the Fan Duel site as of mid-afternoon Sunday
—UPDATE 3: ESPN BET Sportsbook posted its odds Sunday afternoon and listed Cal as a 2.5-point favorite over Stanford. The BetMGM site lists Cal as a 3-point favorite over the Cardinal—
The numbers crunching performed by ESPN’s analytics give Stanford a 51.9% chance of winning the Big Game. That percentage increased ever so slightly on Sunday, even though neither Cal nor Stanford played this weekend. ESPN analytics gave Stanford a 51.6% chance of winning before Saturday’s games were made.
Granted, a 51.9% chance suggests the game is almost a tossup, but it makes the Cardinal a slight favorite in the minds of numbers nerds.
But the bookmakers who watch games and analyze what they see give the Golden Bears the edge in their bid to win the Big Game for the fifth straight year.
Of course, the point spread is likely to change between now and Saturday’s game at Stanford Stadium, but it is no surprise that Cal is favored by the betting public at the moment.
Cal is 6-4 overall and 3-3 in the ACC, while Stanford is 3-7 overall and 2-5 in the conference.
Both teams had byes this past weekend, so there is no advantage there, but Cal is coming off a road overtime upset over then-No. 15 Louisville, which was an 18.5-point favorite.
Stanford, meanwhile is coming off a 20-15 road loss to North Carolina.
Cal’s starting quarterback will be true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who has started all 10 games this season and has a 6-4 record as a starter. Stanford is expected to start redshirt freshman quarterback Elijah Brown, who made his first start of this season against North Carolina, He is 0-1 as a starter this season and 0-2 as a starter during his career at Stanford. (He played in three games last year, making one start.)
There’s a decent chance Cal’s outstanding inside linebacker, Cade Uluave, will return for Saturday’s contest after missing the previous two games with a wrist injury.
Stanford has the advantage of having Saturday’s game at home, but over the past 16 years, the road team has a 10-6 record in the Big Game.
We have seen over the years that point spreads and favorites don’t mean a lot in rivalry games like the Big Game, and there have been some major upsets in the past.
But betting sites have been fairly accurate in Big Game point spreads in recent years:
2024 Big Game
Cal favored by 14 points.
The Bears did not come close to covering the spread and had to scramble to win the game at all. The Bears trailed 21-10 entering the final period, but scored two touchdowns in the the fourth quarter, including a 98-yard touchdown drive that ended with Fernando Mendoza’s 22-yard touchdown pass to Jonathan Brady with 2:40 remaining.
Final score: Cal 24, Stanford 21 (Stanford beat the spread)
.
2023 Big Game
Cal favored by 7 points
Cal’s Jaydn Ott rushed for 166 and Fernando Mendoza threw three touchdown passes with one interception. Mendoza’s 8-yard touchdown pass early in the fourth quarter gave the Bears a 12-point lead.
Final score: Cal 27, Stanford 15 (Cal covered the spread)
.
2022 Big Game
Cal favored by 5 points
Cal led throughout the game and clinched the win with Jaydn Ott’s 1-yard touchdown run that gave the Bears a 10-point lead with 58 seconds remaining. Stanford’s Joshua Karty kicked a meaningless (except for the Cardinal record books) 61-yard field goal on the final play, which would have been controversial if it had affected the winner against the spread.
Final score: Cal 27, Stanford 20 (Cal covered the spread)
.
2021 Big Game
Cal favored by 1.5 points
Cal rolled up 636 yards of offense, including 352 yards on the ground, and Chase Garbers passed for 250 yards and ran for 59 yards in a 30-point Cal blowout.
Final score: Cal 41, Stanford 11 (Cal covered the spread)
.
2020 Big Game
Cal favored by 1.5 points
In a game played in an empty stadium during Covid, Stanford blocked a Dario Longhetto extra point with 58 seconds left that would have tied the game.
Final score: Stanford 24, Cal 23. (Stanford beat the spread)
.
2019 Big Game
Stanford favored by 2.5 points
Chase Garbers’ 16-yard touchdown run with 1:19 remaining gave Cal its first lead of the game and set the final score.
Final score: Cal 24, Stanford 20. (Cal beat the spread)
Recent articles:
What do ESPN’s analytics say about the Big Game outcome?
Cal’s second-half rally falls short in basketball loss to Kansas State
Cal football GM Ron Rivera discusses impact of win over Louisville
Cal men’s and women’s basketball programs sign one player apiece
How does Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele compare to other freshman quarterbacks?
