Columbus Blue Jackets @ Toronto Maple Leafs
07:00 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: TSN4, FDSNOH
The Leafs last game was at home on November 18 against the St. Louis Blues, which Toronto won by a score of 3-2 in overtime. The Leafs have a record of 9-9-2 for a 0.500 Points %.
The Columbus Blue Jackets last played away on November 18 against the Winnipeg Jets. The Blue Jackets lost by a score of 5-2 in regulation, and their current league record is 10-8-2 for a 0.550 Points %.
Them
The last time these two teams met the Blue Jays won a game in meme-tastic fashion striking out Ohtani, and providing everyone who cared a moment of massive enjoyment. And not all that many people watched the game.
At that time the Leafs and the Blue Jackets had very similar records, with the Blue Jackets having the dramatically better five-on-five results. They’ve cooled down a bit, but are still over 50% in Corsi and are 10th best in Expected Goals %.
They get very good, but not outstanding Save % in all-situations, and their power play has the second highest Expected Goal rate behind noted powerhouse team, the Penguins, but they don’t score even close to their Expected. Their PK/goaltending while shorthanded is very bad.
Everything about Columbus explains the Eastern Conference. If there were genuinely very bad teams in the East, or even more than just a few underperforming teams, they’d win more often and have more points. Eventually, as the east plays the west a little more, the standings are going to change and we might figure out what the extreme parity in the east means. Are all these teams very good, okay, not very good? It’s impossible to know that right now.
Lines
Last Game (2025-11-18) via Daily Faceoff
Dmitri Voronkov – Adam Fantilli – Kirill Marchenko
Miles Wood – Sean Monahan – Kent Johnson
Cole Sillinger – Charlie Coyle – Mathieu Olivier
Zach Aston-Reese – Isac Lundestrom – Luca Del Bel Belluz
Zach Werenski – Ivan Provorov
Denton Mateychuk – Damon Severson
Jake Christiansen – Dante Fabbro
Jet Greaves
Elvis Merzlikins
Us
The Leafs aren’t really playing the Blue Jackets tonight. They didn’t play Chicago a few days ago or the Blues on Tuesday. They are still playing themselves. There were glimmers of light in Chicago and the game against the Blues was better, and this one needs to be better still. Until they get out of their own way, they can’t really start playing the opponent.
Joe Woll gets the start, and the lineup is a little different today to last game. Scott Laughton took part as if he is playing, which would knock Sammy Blais out of the lineup, and the wingers are distinctly rearranged.
Auston Matthews skated with the team as well today. Anthony Stolarz is reported to be worse than originally believed, and he is not skating at all yet.
Lines
Morning Skate:
William Nylander – John Tavares – Calle Järnkrok
Bobby McMann – Max Domi – Nicholas Robertson
Easton Cowan – Scott Laughton – Steven Lorentz
Dakota Joshua – Jacob Quillan – Matias Maccelli
Morgan Rielly – Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Simon Benoit – Jake McCabe
Dakota Mermis – Troy Stecher
Joe Woll – starter
Dennis Hildeby
The Game
That game against the Blue Jacets in late October, it was a dominating performance by the Leafs on the shot clock, but it was the game that showcased the depth of the malaise the Leafs were in. They lost big, with Cayden Primeau in net, sure, but also because they played like absolute trash.
So, you know, stop looking at the shot clock! For some reason it’s become the talisman for watching a game. Are the Leafs being outshot? Yes, good, I can resent them. Are the Leafs outshooting the other team? Yes, okay, I can say they’re good right now in a sardonic way expecting them to lose in the third period.
No you can’t. If you’re in the middle of the game, Shots on Goal can reliably tell you who has had more power play minutes and not much else. At the game level, shot differentials of any kind do not strongly correlate with winning.
Everyone knows that the big structural problem away from goaltending has been time spent in the defensive zone. The shot clock is not the measure of how bad/good they are doing at that at any given time. And how good/bad they’re doing at that is not the measure of how they are playing in general.
And it is amusing to me that it’s almost exactly one year ago when I wrote this:
Deserve to Win
Can you expect to get what you deserve?
