Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. The goal isn’t just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them throughout the season. I’ll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.
With that said, last week was okay. We went 4-3 for a tiny gain of 0.1 units. The Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield connection was shut down once again. That brings the season record to 30–26 for -0.7 units. Still slightly underwater, but this is the natural ebb and flow of a long season, and the point of this column is to continually refine what’s working and what’s not.
Speaking of what is working best, last week I examined the differences between Player Shot Prop Unders vs Overs and Player Shots vs Team Shots. This week, I want to look at three markets that sit at opposite ends of the performance spectrum for me so far: Block props, Hit props, and Power Play Point (PPP) props. Each tells a different story about how efficient (or inefficient) the market is, where value tends to sit, and what its telling me moving forward.
Block Props vs Hit Props vs PPP Props
Block Props: -12% Average Bet ROI
Block props have been the toughest category for me this season, returning -12% ROI. With around 50 total bets, I’m starting to think that I do not have an edge on this category. There are still some games where a block prop will look extremely good, but this prop type is inherently volatile and I am planning to bet much smaller on this prop moving forward. Blocks depend heavily on game script — falling behind early, long defensive-zone shifts, or heavy penalty kill time. You’re betting on the other team generating shot attempts at low danger areas and at the right angles. One area that I have found success is when you find a team that has a high number of their shot attempts blocked (Colorado, Washington, Carolina, Calgary) and even account for which side of the ice these attempts come from most. Though, I’ll be making less of these bets moving forward.
Hit Props: +38% Average Bet ROI
Hit props have been the complete opposite story, with a massive +38% average bet ROI so far. This is one of the clearest edges I’ve found this season, and a few reasons explain the outsized returns. Hit rates fluctuate much less than shot or block rates. Also, the books have been slow to adjust to role changes. Public action rarely drives these numbers; recreational bettors don’t gravitate toward hit props, which keeps lines inefficient. We can also use the Arena Stat Bias tool to help us find edges in this market. In short: Hits are predictable, consistent, and underpriced. The market is inefficient, and until books tighten their models, this category remains a strong value. You won’t find this prop type on all the books – another great sign that the books don’t have an edge here.
Power Play Point (PPP) Props: +7% Average Bet ROI
PPP props—particularly unders—have quietly become one of the strongest edges in the portfolio, delivering a +7% ROI. And yes, that success is largely driven by PPP unders. It may feel counterintuitive that wagers priced as high as -600 can offer strong value, but the odds themselves matter far less than the gap between true probability and the book’s implied probability.
Why do PPP unders perform so well? First, power-play efficiency is consistently overestimated by sportsbooks, likely because the betting public gravitates toward overs. This inflates the prices of many top-unit stars (e.g., MacKinnon PPP at +120), often pushing them far beyond their true likelihood. Second, PPP markets are extremely sensitive to role changes—but sportsbooks are slow to adjust when a player moves on or off PP1. That lag creates opportunities where the numbers no longer match the player’s actual deployment.
Tonight’s Picks
Now let’s dive into tonight’s Puck Picks and get Puck Picks back into the positives!
Trent Frederic 3+ Hits (+120, 1u)
We’ll start with one of the most efficient markets in the toolkit. Frederic has settled into a bottom-six role in Edmonton, spending most of his shifts forechecking and chasing pucks, perfect conditions for hit volume while McDavid and Draisaitl rest for their next shifts.
His home/away splits make this even more appealing: 2.0 hits per game at home vs. 3.1 on the road. And tonight he’s on the road in Tampa Bay, the second most hit-friendly arena in the NHL by scorer tendencies. At +120, this line is excellent value.
John Gibson Saves Under 23.5 (-115, 1.3u)
Detroit has been quietly excellent at suppressing shots, especially at home, limiting opponents’ offensive zone time and keeping opponents at low shot volumes. The Islanders have cleared 26 shots in only two of their last seven games, yet remain capable of scoring with modest shot totals.
Given Gibson’s 3.31 GAA, the under on his save line is more attractive than taking the NYI team under 26.5 shots. This bet also gains hidden value if Gibson posts one of his historically common Really Bad Starts (15%) and gets pulled, or if another minor injury forces him out early.
San Jose Sharks Under 25.5 Shots (-124, 1.7u)
The Kings have been a top-five team in CF% and a top-five team in limiting shots allowed over the last 10 games, dominating both possession and defensive structure. San Jose, meanwhile, remains one of the weakest shot-generation teams in the league, clearing 25 SOG just three times in their last 10. They also shoot 6.7 fewer shots per game at home compared to on the road.
A final indicator of value: Anton Forsberg’s save line is widely posted at 21.5, suggesting the true SJS number should be closer to 23.5–24.5, not 25.5. We’re exploiting that mismatch.
**Washington Team Shots Under 28.5 (-118, 2.7u) and Washington 30+ Shots (+180, 1.78u)**
This is a synthetic position based on mispriced lines across books (the under on BetRivers and the 30+ shot line on FD). We are effectively betting Washington NOT to finish with exactly 29 shots, at a price equivalent to -900, risking 4.48u to win 4.99u.
I project the true probability of “exactly 29” to be around 6%, meaning the opposite side (0–28 or 30+) should be priced near -1600. That implies an expected value of roughly 4.5%, making this a smart EV exploitation play, not a high-variance gamble. If these lines change much from the time I’m posting to the time you’re reading, it may not be worth taking, but you could work out a similar play with Sam Montembeault’s 25+ save line alongside Washington’s under 28.5 shot line, but you’d have to account for the risk of a Montembeault injury or Really Bad Start tanking both props.
SGP of Nico Hischier & Jesper Bratt Both to Record 1+ Point (+105, 1u), 2+ each with Gritsyuk 1+ (+816, .2u)
With Jack Hughes out, Hischier has been thrust into the true 1C role. Despite a slow start to his season, his recent line with Bratt and Arseny Gritsyuk absolutely dominated last game, posting a 78% CF% and strong xG share as well. They also correlate well through shared PP usage.
At plus money, the value is clear—though this should not probably not be played below -110. Gritsyuk is a nice throw-in (and I actually like his point prop at +120) for the 2+ lines as Hischier and Bratt will likely get it done at even strength if they each get 2+ points, taking Gritsyuk along for the ride.
No PPP Parlay: Moritz Seider / Seah Theodore / Brandon Hagel (-169, 2.5u)
Seider is the largest value play here, being priced as if he is still on the top unit, while Axel Sandin-Pellikka takes his place. Each of these players should have odds worse than -1000 while they are on second power play units that get less than 25% of the PPTOI share.
Good luck if you’re tailing! As always, results will be updated in next Thursday’s column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you’re willing to lose.
Follow me on X (@fantasycheddar) for more daily betting picks and fantasy hockey analysis throughout the season.
Ryan Brudner
TopCheddarFantasy
