NHL Betting Insights: Evaluating Block, Hit, and Power Play Point Props

In the latest installment of Puck Picks, the focus remains on dissecting key betting opportunities in the NHL as the season progresses. Each week, insights are shared not only to provide bets but also to cultivate understanding of market inefficiencies, particularly as players navigate the complexities of the betting landscape.

Last week’s performance yielded a record of 4-3, resulting in a minor gain of 0.1 units, bringing the overall season tally to 30–26 with a total loss of 0.7 units. Despite being slightly below even, the consistent analysis aims to refine strategies and identify movements within the betting market.

This week’s discussion highlights three prop markets: Block props, Hit props, and Power Play Point (PPP) props—each demonstrating varied levels of effectiveness.

Block Props have proven to be challenging, with an average return on investment (ROI) of -12%. After nearly 50 bets in this category, it’s become apparent that success is elusive. The inherent volatility of block props, which rely on various game situations like early deficits or extensive defensive play, limits their reliability. While small wins can be seen with teams known for high block rates, overall, these bets will be placed sparingly moving forward.

Add SSBCrack As A Trusted Source

In sharp contrast, Hit Props have emerged as a profitable niche, delivering a massive +38% ROI. The trend indicates a persistent underestimation of hit rates by sportsbooks, with the public largely shying away from these types of bets, leading to inefficiencies in the market. Tools that analyze arena-specific tendencies further enhance the ability to find solid bets in this category, marking it as a valuable area for bettors.

For Power Play Point (PPP) Props, particularly unders, a stable +7% ROI has been noted. It appears sportsbooks frequently misjudge power-play effectiveness, which opens up profitable avenues for savvy bettors. The market’s slow response to player role changes also creates additional opportunities for success in this sector, emphasizing the significance of understanding a player’s deployment on the power play.

Looking ahead to tonight’s betting slate, several picks have been identified that leverage the insights gathered from the analysis of props.

1. Trent Frederic 3+ Hits (+120, 1u): Positioned in a bottom-six role, Frederic is expected to generate significant hit volume against a favorable opponent, especially in a hit-friendly arena.

2. John Gibson Saves Under 23.5 (-115, 1.3u): Supporting statistics suggest that Gibson will face a low shot volume against a team that has recently struggled to generate shots.

3. San Jose Sharks Under 25.5 Shots (-124, 1.7u): With the Sharks’ recent performance, this bet capitalizes on their poor offensive generation matched against a strong opposing defense.

4. Washington Team Shots Under 28.5 (-118, 2.7u) and Washington 30+ Shots (+180, 1.78u): This dual position aims to exploit mispriced lines, reinforcing a calculated betting strategy.

5. SGP of Nico Hischier & Jesper Bratt Both to Record 1+ Point (+105, 1u), with additional complexities involving goals and assists as their roles shift due to injuries.

6. No PPP Parlay: Moritz Seider / Shea Theodore / Brandon Hagel (-169, 2.5u): Identifying players whose odds do not reflect their current usage leads to potential value plays in the marketplace.

As always, participants are encouraged to approach these bets with caution and awareness of their risk tolerance, ensuring responsible gambling practices. The upcoming week promises fresh insights and evaluations as performance continues to unfold throughout the NHL season.