It’ll be hard for this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night in Doha, Qatar to top the delirious highs produced a weekend earlier at UFC 322, as Madison Square Garden delivered an event-of-the-year contender once again.
But a sneaky-good card headlined by top contenders with plenty to prove awaits — and the results could potentially impact championship match-making in marquee divisions come early 2026.
At lightweight, Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker return from lengthy layoffs looking to re-establish themselves atop the rankings and atone for status-damaging fight withdrawals. Tsarukyan was the toast of the division until his 11th-hour injury during a weight cut nearly deep-sixed this year’s first pay-per-view. And Hooker was rebuilding his standing following a tough period of pandemic results before repeated hand and arm injuries derailed the pursuit.
Meanwhile, at welterweight, Ian Machado Garry and Belal Muhammad will cap a busy round robin held over the last several weekends that has raised the bar in what’s become UFC’s most interesting division. Muhammad is fighting for the first time since he lost his welterweight title and trying to forge one last climb of the mountain. And Garry’s looking to knock off another top contender and insert himself squarely in the middle of the title picture.
Here’s a closer look at what’s on the line in the main and co-main events this weekend in the Middle East, where the pictures atop two divisions could come into focus.
At the UFC 320 post-fight press conference, only days after a lightweight bout between Tsarukyan and Hooker was announced, UFC president Dana White was asked if the winner of that fight would become the No. 1 contender in the division.
“Yeah,” White said. “Yeah.”
Now, we know how these things go in the UFC. That far-from-ringing endorsement could easily be walked back as ‘that was then, this is now.’ The promotion may just as well pretend it never happened and head in another direction for any of a million-and-one reasons. There are no guarantees in this sport until a contract is signed. And even then…
Just look at Tsarukyan and Hooker themselves. They both had meaningful scheduled fights fall through earlier this year. Tsarukyan pulled out of a lightweight title fight against Islam Makhachev less than 48 hours before UFC 311 due to a back injury. Meanwhile, Hooker withdrew from a fight with former interim champion Justin Gaethje at UFC 313 after breaking his hand sparring only two weeks from fight night.
So, the suggestion that whichever of these two emerges victorious from their clash on Saturday will be the next to challenge Ilia Topuria for his title must be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism. But even if that scenario doesn’t materialize, there’s plenty on the line.
Both fighters are seeking to push themselves back atop the lightweight rankings after extended layoffs that has seen each fight only once since the beginning of 2024. The UFC wouldn’t have been happy with Hooker’s injury coming as close as it did to his fight. So, how do you think they felt about Tsarukyan pulling out within a day of his?
The 29-year-old is as well-rounded and skilled as anyone in the division. But the circumstances around Tsarukyan’s injury arising in the final hours of his weight cut, after he showed no signs of being compromised throughout fight week, remain murky. There’s a reason why he went from a title shot to a make-right bout against one of the most violent guys in the division.
And that violent guy has had more bouts cancelled due to injuries (three) than actual fights (two) over the last three years. Hooker’s broken his right arm, both hands and an orbital, undergoing multiple surgeries along the way. The 35-year-old is about as good a bet as anyone on the roster to put on a banger each time out and could easily go on a BMF title run if his lightweight one doesn’t work out. But the UFC needs him to be active if it’s going to advance him properly.
So, is this a No. 1 contender fight? Could be. Will it be a highly entertaining fight? Likely. Is it a prove yourself fight for both? Certainly.
Machado Garry vs. Muhammad
It’s been a significant couple weeks for the welterweight division. On Saturday, it got a new champion in Makhachev, who came up from lightweight to flatten Jack Della Maddalena for his belt. It also got a couple of statement knockouts from top contenders, as Fighting Nerds product Carlos Prates buried Leon Edwards with a straight left and enormous 25-year-old Michael Morales bombed on Sean Brady.
The weekend prior, Gabriel Bonfim made a statement against Randy Brown and Uros Medic steamrolled Muslim Salikhov. Meanwhile, Kamaru Usman — UFC’s second-best welterweight champion ever after Georges St-Pierre — is coming off a victory over Joaquin Buckley. And undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov, who looked like the most dangerous guy in the division prior to a knee injury that’s sidelined him since last December, is on the verge of returning.
Now, Garry — whose only career loss came narrowly to Rakhmonov — gets another chance to remind the division of his well-rounded game while Muhammad, whose brief title reign was ended by Della Maddalena in May, seeks to re-assert himself. With so many moving parts, and so many special performances, future matchmaking among the welterweight field has been left wide open. No one wants to get left behind amid the many contenders.
And that can even happen with a win. Say Garry emerges via decision, as he has in each of his last four victories. Would that be enough to separate himself from Prates (whom he beat in one of those decisions) and Morales after the spectacular, highlight-reel performances they came up with at UFC 322?
“He’s obviously incredible. He’s 19-0. He’s cool as hell. He’s got it all. You can check all the boxes with that kid,” White said of Morales last Saturday. “When you get these kinds of opportunities, you come to make the most of it. And there was a lot of that on the card (at UFC 322).”
Muhammad, too, would need a statement win to elevate himself back into the title picture. His wrestling-centred style isn’t the most entertaining for casual fans, which is why he needed to run his professional record to 23-3 — culminating in a 10-fight unbeaten streak over a five-year span — before the UFC first let him challenge for welterweight gold.
With the loss to Della Maddalena still fresh in fans’ minds, a decision victory Saturday wouldn’t do much for Muhammad’s case, likely leading to more fights against top contenders until he’s the last man standing. That’s a tough road to take at 37.
Like it or not, the expectations have been elevated substantially at welterweight, which is suddenly UFC’s most compelling division. A crowded top 10 of legitimate contenders with solid records is jockeying for position behind the sport’s pound-for-pound best in Makhachev, who just took over the title. And for Garry and Muhammad, it’ll take something special Saturday to stand out.
