Update, Friday, November 21, 3.30pm: Communities in the north have begun to feel the impact of Tropical Cyclone Fina with the Darwin region expected to feel the worst of the storm from midday Saturday.
Croker Island recorded 190mm of rain overnight while gale force winds with gusts of up to 120km/h have been felt across the Cobourg Peninsula.
Despite Fina weakening to a Category 1 as it turned south, it is expected to intensify back into a Category 2 by the time it hits Darwin, which is now in the official warning zone.
Bureau of Meteorology manager of Hazard Preparedness and Response Shenagh Gamble said the watch zone had also extended further south to include Dundee and the Daly River Mouth.
Meanwhile, Maningrida and communities further east are no longer in the watch area.
“Those northern coastal communities including the Tiwi Islands are already starting to feel the impacts, and these conditions are expected to worsen today and tomorrow,” Ms Gamble said.
“While the weather has been quite calm in Darwin over the past day or so, conditions will also worsen in Darwin into tomorrow evening
“Gales of around 90km/h are expected in the morning but more likely in the middle of the day and the afternoon
“It’s important to be aware that before the cyclone impacts you can expect thunderstorms and intense rainfall before the cyclone hits as far east as Groote Eylandt.
“There may be stages in the day where conditions seem to ease, but that is typical in a cyclone event so don’t assume the danger has passed until you have been advised that it has.”
Update, November 21, 11am: The Weather Bureau has warned against complacency as Cyclone Fina completes its u-turn west back towards the Northern Territory.
With BOM forecasting winds of up to 155kmh, rainfall to 300mm and flash flooding and storm surges possible in Darwin and the Top End, the Bureau of Meteorology said Fina should be taken very seriously.
The latest Bureau tracking map issued at 10.43am showed TC Fina had completed its u-turn back towards Darwin as a Category 1 storm, and was located about 110km northeast of Minjilang and 325km northeast of Darwin.
If TC Fina remains on its current course, it would be expected to be in line with Darwin about 7pm on Saturday.
“At the moment we have Fina moving directly over Darwin, but other tracking has it heading south-west towards Van Diemens Gulf,” Ms Scully said.
“Darwin will be impacted by gale force, potentially destructive winds, heavy rainfall and flash flooding, as well as dangerous storm surge or tides, which are typical with tropical cyclones.”
The Cyclone Warning zone now applies to the Tiwi Islands, Dundee Beach to Warruwi and inland to Batcelor. This includes Darwin, Cobourg Peninsula, Minjilang, Gunbalanya, Pirlangimpi, Milikapita and Wurrumiyanga.
A Cyclone Watch extends from Wadeye to Daly River Mouth.
The BOM’s latest forecast said Tropical Cyclone Fina was expected to strengthen to a Category 2 system while tracking southwest during Friday.
“Fina is forecast to approach the Cobourg Peninsula and Tiwi Islands tonight before continuing southwest through the Van Diemen Gulf on Saturday,” it said.
“Fina is forecast to further intensify to a severe tropical cyclone during Sunday afternoon in the southern Timor Sea. There continues to remain a chance that it could reach Category 3 intensity earlier, during late Friday or early Saturday as it moves into the Van Diemen Gulf.”
Minjaling had recorded 185mm rain by Friday morning.
Senior BOM meteorologist Sarah Scully said just as TC Fina changed course over the past few days, it could do so again and hit major population centres this weekend.
Ms Scully said tropical cyclones are steered by the level of atmospheric winds, with stronger cyclones generally in the middle and upper atmospheric levels where winds can most flucutate.
“Fina’s south-westerly movement happened when it deepened and intensified to a Category 2 system and by doing that it pushed up further into the atmosphere and was steered by the dominant south-east flows which steered it back towards the NT,” Ms Scully said.
“Forecasting the exact path and strength of tropical cyclones is really complex and tricky to forecast which is why it’s so important for people within the affected areas to stay up to date with the model runs.”
Chief Minister Lia Finocchiaro said thousands of residents in remote communities would be impacted over coming days. While schools remained operating in Darwin, five community schools had so far been closed.
“Darwin is expected to receive the cyclone in the early hours of Sunday, but it’s an ever evolving situation,” Ms Finocchiaro told Sky News.
Update, November 20, 10.30pm: The Bureau of Meteorology has officially forecast Tropical Cyclone Fina to reach severe Category 3 intensity, but how soon that will occur remains unclear.
In its latest TC Fina update issued just after 10pm Thursday, the Bureau advised the system was slowly moving south, with impacts for the Northern Territory from early Friday morning.
While TC Fina, located 360km northeast of Darwin and 13km north northeast of Minjilang, is currently a Category 1 system with sustained winds near the centre of 75km/h with wind gusts to 100km/h, its intensity is expected to increase again and reach Category 3.
“Tropical Cyclone Fina, currently a category 1 cyclone, is moving slowly south and is expected to strengthen to a category 2 system whilst tracking southwest during Friday,” the Bureau said.
“Late Friday, Fina is forecast to approach the Cobourg Peninsula and Tiwi Islands before continuing southwest through the Van Diemen Gulf on Saturday.
“Fina is forecast to further intensify to a severe tropical cyclone during Sunday afternoon in the southern Timor Sea. There continues to remain a chance that it could reach achieve category 3 intensity earlier, during late Friday or early Saturday as it moves into the Van Diemen Gulf.”
The current Warning Zone for the system stretches from Milikapiti to Maningrida, including the Cobourg Peninsula, Minjilang and Warruwi.
The Watch Zone is from the Daly River Mouth to Gunbalanya, including Dundee Beach, Darwin, Batchelor, Pirlangimpi and Wurrumiyanga about the Tiwi Islands.
The Bureau advised gales with damaging wind gusts to 120 km/h may develop over the Cobourg Peninsula between Cape Don and Warruwi Thursday night, possibly extending to between Milikapiti and Maningrida on Friday morning.
“Gales are expected to extend further west to include the Tiwi Islands during late Friday and from Darwin east to Gunbalanya during Saturday. Gales may extend further southwest to Batchelor and Daly River Mouth late on Saturday,” the Bureau advised.
“Destructive wind gusts to 155km/h may develop between Cape Don and Warruwi on Friday as the system nears the coast, extending to the Tiwi Islands early Saturday and possibly to Darwin later on Saturday.”
Coastal residents on the Tiwi islands, as well as between Cape Hotham and Maningrida are being warned of a dangerous storm tide as the eye of the cyclone crosses the coast through Friday and Saturday, as tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with damaging waves and dangerous flooding.
The Bureau is expected to release its next update by 1.30am Friday.
Update, November 20, 5pm: The cyclone warning zones have been extended to include Milikapiti while watch zones east of Darwin have been widened as Tropical Cyclone Fina continues to move south.
The latest update from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) shows the system moving closer to the Tiwi Islands as it moves south towards landfall widened watch and warning zones.
The cyclone warning zone was extended on Thursday afternoon to part of the Tiwi Islands’ Melville Island, including Milikapiti, and still includes the area between Cape Don and Maningrida, including Minjilang and Warruwi. The Chief Minister Lia Finocchiaro has given the order for Minjilang and Warruwi schools to be closed Friday and prepared as cyclone shelters.
While east of Darwin, watch zones have also been widened to include the Daly River Mouth, Dundee Beach and Batchelor, as well as Darwin, the rest of the Tiwi Islands and Gunbalanya.
The cyclone may still take another track but in the meantime, more Top End communities are being put on watch alert and told to keep an eye on further updates.
Tropical Cyclone Fina is expected to approach the Cobourg Peninsula and Tiwi Islands late on Friday impacting communities like Minjilang first.
It is then expected to pass between the Tiwi Islands and Darwin just touching the southern side of Melville Island before continuing to travel across the water.
NTES has advised people near and between Milikapiti and Maningrida to immediately start or continue preparations such as securing boats and debris while others in watch zones should start considering cyclone preparation.
As at 3.30pm Thursday TC Fina was a category 2 system with sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
TC Fina was located 380 kilometres northeast of Darwin and 160 kilometres north northeast of Minjilang, moving slowly south.
Chief Minister Finocchiaro urged residents to keep following the regular Secure NT and media updates.
She said Police Commissioner Martin Dole has the lead on the Emergency situation.
Ms Finocchiaro, who visited the Emergency Operations Centre at Police HQ, saw first-hand the work underway tracking Tropical cyclone Fina.
She said there were no immediate plans to evacuate people from communities in the firing line however this may change as the situation escalates.
Ms Finocchiaro urged people not to panic but be prepared with an emergency supply kit that can see them self-sufficient for 72 hours.
The Bureau is expected to release its next update by 7.30pm.
Update, November 20, 3pm: Tropical Cyclone Fina is moving south towards the Northern Territory and on track to hit the Cobourg Peninsula, Tiwi Islands and possibly Darwin in the coming days.
The Bureau of Meteorology has not ruled out the Category 2 system intensifying to a Category 3, and watch and act alerts are in place for residents from Cape Don to Maningrida.
Gales with damaging wind gusts up to 120km/h may develop in the watch and act zone on Thursday night, increasing to 155km/h as the cyclone approaches on Friday.
Local flash flooding and heavy rainfall is also possible along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and Maningrida from Friday.
In an update at 2pm on Thursday, the BOM’s Jude Scott said the cyclone was positioned 200km north of the Cobourg Peninsula and 400km northeast of Darwin, and would slowly move southwest for the next couple of days.
After passing Minjilang and Warruwi late Friday, it was expected to track through Van Diemen Gulf on Saturday, impacting Milikapiti, Wurrumiyanga and Pirlangimpi.
“Fina is forecast to maintain Category 2 intensity in the coming days, but an increase to Category 3 as it nears land does remain a possibility,” Ms Scott said.
Darwin was included in the cyclone watch area as of Thursday morning, with gales expected to hit the city late Saturday morning.
Ms Scott said the impact on Darwin would depend how closely the cyclone tracked the Tiwi Islands, with more impacts felt in Darwin on Saturday the closer Fina came to the mainland coast.
Incident controller Kirsten Engels said police were on the ground in the highest risk areas, and working with local emergency committees.
“We’re continuing to monitor and receive updates on this, and we will advise on evacuations if it gets to that point,” she said.
“My advice to the areas that might be affected is, firstly, don’t panic. Just be prepared
“Get your cyclone kit ready, have your plan ready, keep following the BOM tracker map, and keep following the advice released by Secure NT.”
To date only Minjilang and Warruwi schools had been closed, and residents were advised not to attend cyclone shelters until advised by authorities they were open.
People were told to avoid driving when emergency alert stage was reached.
Those whose cyclone plan involved moving to different locations should do so during the watch and act stage.
Flood watch in place for north west coastal rivers
Meanwhile a flood watch is in place for parts of the north west coastal rivers, with residents told to stay alert in case conditions change as Tropical Cyclone Fina moves south causing heavy widespread rainfall.
The cyclone is currently projected to move southwest during Friday and Saturday taking it across the northwest coast of the Top End.
NT Emergency Services have issued a Flood Advice alert that stipulates while there is no immediate danger there are risks as rainfall increases in the coming days.
The North West Coastal Rivers catchments are becoming saturated from recent falls with the anticipated daily rainfall over the Flood Watch area estimated to be 50-200mm.
Isolated totals of more than 300mm are also possible near the path of the cyclone on Friday and Saturday with further rainfall on the cards for Sunday.
The impacted locations include Finniss River, Tiwi Islands, Adelaide River below Adelaide River Tow, Mary River, Wildman River, South Alligator River, East Alligator River and Goomadeer River.
Significant rises in creeks and rivers in those areas are likely from Friday while certain roads may become impassable, isolating communities and homes.
People are warned to be prepared and not to enter flood waters, which may contain harmful objects, toxic waste or dangerous animals.
Update, November 20, 12.20pm: Tropical Cyclone Fina has turned south for the Top End with the Bureau of Meteorology maintaining there’s a possibility it turns into a Category 3 before making landfall.
The Category 2 system is slowly moving toward the south and is expected to continue its course throughout the day with the Tiwi Islands and the Darwin region in its path.
A warning zone has been declared for Cape Don to Maningrida including the Cobourg Peninsula, Minjilang and Warruwi.
The Tiwi Islands as well as the area from Darwin east to Gunbalanya are under a Cyclone Watch as of Thursday morning.
The slow moving system is expected to run south west during Friday and to approach the Cobourg Peninsula and Tiwi Islands late on Friday.
It will continue moving southwest through the Van Dieman Gulf on Saturday where there remains a slight possibility it will reach Category 3 intensity late on Friday or early Saturday.
People in the warning zone should expect gales with damaging wind gusts to 120km/h to develop later on Thursday, with warnings expected to extend further south across the weekend.
Destructive wind gusts up to 155km/h may also develop while heavy rainfall which may develop into flash flooding is possible across coastal areas.
“On Thursday, Fina is likely to move almost straight southward, heading towards the northern coast of the Territory,” BOM meteorologist Angus Hines said at about 11am on Thursday.
“Then into Friday morning it’s going to swing and start to move in a south-westerly path that is going to take it through the Van Diemen Gulf and near Darwin, somewhere probably just north of the Darwin area.
“Through this entire time, it is most likely that this will stay as a Category 2 tropical cyclone, but we can’t rule out the fact that it could intensify and may become a Category 3 tropical system in the next 24 to 48 hours.”
Mr Hines said Territorians should brace for “some pretty significant weather impacts” as the cyclone path tracks close to the NT.
“Damage from wind absolutely a risk in the coming days – that can be damage to trees, damage to powerlines, which lead to power outages, damage to property as well, and flash flooding and riverine flooding are both expected to occur in the coming few days.”
A flood watch remains in place for areas across the northwest Top End while tides may be higher than normal in those same regions.
Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Maningrida are warned of a dangerous storm tide as the cyclone centre crosses the coast.
NT emergency services have advised people near and between Cape Don and Maningrida to continue preparations and to secure their boats and property.
Meanwhile, people on the Tiwi Islands and in other watch zones are advised to consider what action they will take as the cyclone threat increases.
Initial, November 20, 11am: Tropical Cyclone Fina is expected to cross the Northern Territory coastline at Cobourg Marine Park on the Cobourg Peninsula early on Saturday morning, with potentially two other crossings in subsequent days.
Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Angus Hines said Category 2 TC Fina was about 200km offshore north of Minjilang and about 400km northeast of Darwin, tracking south towards the NT coastline.
After Cobourg Peninsula, forecasters predict the cyclone will track southwest through the Van Diemen Gulf during Saturday, potentially crossing the Tiwi Islands coast later in the day before passing north of Darwin early Sunday morning.
“There are a few different scenarios about how the tropical cyclone might progress,” he said.
“There’s a small chance it could strengthen to severe Category 3 but this remains an outside likelihood with Category 2 strength most likely.
“There remain elements of uncertainty and there are still a few scenarios that could play out, so BOM will continue to monitor and track.”
A Tropical Cyclone Warning remains in place covering the NT coastline from Cape Don to Warruwi, and there is a Cyclone Watch in place from Maningrida in the east capturing Gunbalanya, and the Tiwi Islands at its western most point.
“The Watch area could see strong winds over the next 48-hours, with rain likely to pick up over the next few days and a risk of heavy rainfall, flash flooding and rough coastal conditions.”
If Fina crosses landfall on Saturday, it would be the earliest arrival of a tropical cyclone since records began in the early 1980s. The previous record was set in 2013 when TC Alessia formed off the WA coast on November 27, having earlier crossed land as a tropical low on November 24.
Meanwhile police on Wednesday established the emergency operation centre at Peter McAulay Centre in Berrimah, from where co-ordination with police and agencies in remote NT communities will be managed.
Watch Commander senior sergeant Scott Langdon said police will respond as required.
“The emergency operation centre is a 24-hour operation and we’ll be monitoring that and making sure they keep in contact with the communities as TC Fina progresses.”
