Jade Ellenger is tackled by Sophie McKay during the AFLW Round 3 match between Brisbane and Carlton at Brighton Homes Arena, August 31, 2025. Picture: Getty Images
THE FINAL game to decide who will face off in the 2025 AFLW Grand Final is an enticing return fixture at Brighton Homes Arena.
Both Brisbane and Carlton have enjoyed some high highs since they met back in round three, and although their last head-to-head battle was just three months ago, a lot has changed.
Where and when: Brighton Homes Arena, Saturday November 22nd, 6:35pm AEST
Head-to-head: Brisbane – three wins, Carlton – three wins, one draw
Last time they met: Carlton 9.4 (58) def. Brisbane 6.8 (44), round three, 2025
Carlton put on five goals in the second quarter to establish a winning margin, headlined by a Goal of the Year finalist from Keeley Sherar. The Blues launched the bulk of their scoring opportunities from intercepts thanks to strong performances from Harriet Cordner (eight intercepts) and Dayna Finn (29 disposals, 12 intercepts), while Tara Bohanna kicked three goals to establish herself within the Carlton attacking system. Brisbane was still working to smooth out the new aspects of its gameplan, and did in fact win the inside 50 count 49-31, but was simply inefficient once in attack.
KEY MATCH-UP
Dakota Davidson v Harriet Cordner
In Brisbane’s qualifying final win over Melbourne, Davidson played with a confidence that hasn’t otherwise been seen this year. Her stat sheet might only say one goal, but her ability to set up the Lions’ attack and get the small things – smothers, running patterns, bringing teammates in – absolutely right. Cordner, meanwhile, has been in fine form, not only with intercepts/rebounds, but in shutting down direct opponents.
When these sides played off back in round three, these two played on one-another, and it was arguably a nil-all draw. This time around, both will be crucial to their respective team’s fortunes once again. If Davidson can really occupy Cordner and make her defend the one-on-ones, rather than set up the backline, that takes away a real asset for the Blues. But if Cordner can shut down Davidson’s attacking influence, there is a whole lot of pressure that then falls squarely on the shoulders of Taylor Smith.
Harriet Cordner is tackled by Dakota Davidson during the AFLW Round 3 match between Brisbane and Carlton at Brighton Homes Arena, August 31, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos
WHERE IT WILL BE WON
The most notable thing coming into this game is momentum early in the piece. Last week Carlton put on 31 points in the opening quarter, effectively putting the game out of touch by the first break, while Brisbane was susceptible to a strong first term in its qualifying final, and then had to wrestle its way back into the contest. The Blues will be undoubtedly focused on starting the game with a similar intensity as they did last Saturday evening.
In terms of clearance, both sides are on par, but centre stoppage dominance was a large part of Carlton’s early attack last week, as Abbie McKay and Mimi Hill got their hands on plenty of front-side clearances and propelled the ball forward. The midfield battle will be a fascinating one, with McKay and Hill supported by Lily Goss and Maddy Guerin in the navy blue, while the Lions boast the reliable trio of Ally Anderson, Belle Dawes, and Cathy Svarc, while the injection of Charlie Mullins into stoppage in recent games has been a neat addition of class to the mix.
The Lions average 11.4 inside 50s more than their opponents this year, proving that strong territory game, but then it becomes a matter of efficiency. In that round three game where they fell to the Blues, the Lions were able to generate a shot on goal from just 30.6 per cent of their forward entries, but their season average is a far more reliable 45.8 per cent. Carlton’s defence will need to lock it up and minimise that number once again.
PREDICTION
The Lions will end Carlton’s fairytale run. Brisbane by four points.
