‘You’d be a fool to dismiss him at this track’ – Tom Scudamore and Megan Nicholls with strong views on a Grade 1 Saturday
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James Knight, Coral He’s the right favourite for sure, but I prefer Handstands at the prices. The conditions are unlikely to get too testing and that should suit a horse with a bit of two-and-a-half-mile pace. I also think we haven’t seen the best of Ben Pauling’s horse yet. We know from his two defeats of Jango Baie there’s a lot of raw talent there and as a six-year-old there is every reason to think he could make the transition to being a genuine Grade 1 horse this season.
Megan Nicholls, broadcaster Yes, he’s the class angle into the race and, as it stands, gets his preferred ground conditions. I think Harry Skelton will look to challenge late and use his turn of foot. The yard form is no harm either – they’re absolutely flying.
Jonathan Pearson, Racing Post Ratings He’s a short price but that is deserved. With the race not likely to be run in too testing conditions, it should benefit Grey Dawning. Others in the race obviously have their merits, but I’d be disappointed if Grey Dawning wasn’t good enough to win this on his seasonal reappearance.
Tom Scudamore, former jockey Not necessarily. I’d still have slight stamina concerns about him and Sean Bowen will be well aware of that. Conditions do not look as testing as last year, but I’d marginally favour Haiti Couleurs.
Robbie Wilders, tipster Yes. Dan Skelton didn’t get it right last season, but he’ll have Grey Dawning as fit as he can get him and he’s the best horse in the race. Don’t forget Grey Dawning hit an in-running low of 1.06 on Betfair in last year’s running before being outstayed on bad ground after getting the last wrong. Conditions won’t be as bad this time and he should be entering his prime now, while Royale Pagaille is nearly 12.
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Give us another to look out for on ITV at Haydock
James Knight I really like Horaces Pearl in the Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (2.25). His form when beating Lud’or at Newbury last February was given a significant boost recently when that horse bolted up at Bangor and while Horaces Pearl’s subsequent two starts last season didn’t quite go to plan, there was still enough in those runs to suggest he is starting this season as a potentially very well-handicapped stayer.
Megan Nicholls Navajo Indy (2.25) is a horse I really like. He ran very well on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham. He’s stepping up to three miles for the first time but stayed on well up the hill last time to suggest this could be within his reach, especially at a track like Haydock. He’s a solid each-way price.
Jonathan Pearson Chris Gordon has been in good form and has a few runners at the meeting, with Andashan (1.15) looking his best chance. He has some good form and his performance at Newbury last time was eye-catching, especially with him stepping up in trip here. He had too much to do from too far back, but finished the race strongly. He can go better than last time and get his head in front.
Tom Scudamore It’s a cracking card with some interesting races. The Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (2.25) was always good to me and it looks another tight renewal. I’m interested to see Navajo Indy step up in trip.
Robbie Wilders I’m keen on the low-weighted Andashan in the 2m3f handicap hurdle (1.15). He looked in need of this intermediate trip when an encouraging third over 2m½f on his return at Newbury and the form of his 18-length maiden hurdle win at Kempton in February is red hot. Those in behind him that day have picked up 17 races between them since, and he brings big potential to his second handicap start.
James Knight Wodhooh is a hard horse to oppose in this kind of company and I think she is probably a fair bet at odds-against. After all, she has been beaten by just one horse in eight starts for Gordon Elliott – and that horse was Lossiemouth – so there doesn’t seem to be any great reason to think she won’t be able to account for these opponents under conditions that should prove fine for her.
Megan Nicholls It’s hard to go against her. She’s such a tough mare and she improved again last season. She goes well fresh, so that shouldn’t be an issue. Her main danger could be Potters Charm, who was a smart novice last year and looks the type to improve again.
Jonathan Pearson At the prices I have to be against her. There is no doubting her class, but she could be vulnerable on her reappearance, with a number of Gordon Elliott’s having needed their first outing this season. Of most interest to me is Winter Fog. It’s interesting that Willie Mullins is sending him to the race, and he had a good prep at Wetherby last time. Dropping in trip from 3m should suit and he’s far too big a price for this, especially with Harry Cobden taking the ride.
Tom Scudamore I respect her and I’m probably being foolish, but I was very impressed with Celtic Dino at Chepstow – and that reads even better now.
Wodhooh: prolific mare is favourite for the Ascot HurdleCredit: John Grossick
Robbie Wilders Reluctantly against. I didn’t think she’d run as there’s a winnable Hatton’s Grace at Fairyhouse next week. She could be too classy, but may need it and I’m not tearing up my ante-post slips on Altobelli and Celtic Dino just yet. Altobelli loves this course and distance and Harry Fry has surely targeted this race, while Celtic Dino’s Welsh Champion Hurdle form is excellent and he merits a rise in class.
James Knight I don’t like him at the price. It almost goes without saying that if the horse that ran a fine second in the King George turns up then he would have a decent chance, but there have been too many disappointing efforts to make him a serious betting proposition at a relatively short price. I much prefer Jango Baie, who goes well fresh. You can almost set your watch by him running to around 160.
Megan Nicholls He isn’t a horse I’d be putting my money on. It’s not because of his talent but we know he has a history of bleeding and therefore it’s a risk. He’ll take a bit of beating, but I really feel as though Pic D’Orhy is being overlooked. He’s unbelievably good round Ascot and he returned in the Charlie Hall with a huge effort at a trip that stretches him. You’d be a fool to dismiss him round here.
Jonathan Pearson He’s clearly talented on his day and going right handed seems to suit him. However, given the number of issues he has had, I wouldn’t back him. Jango Baie is perhaps the most interesting as I feel he could end up being a top-class staying chaser this season.
Tom Scudamore It all depends on his well being. It’s a flip of the coin in that respect, he will either be disappearing off into the sunset or falling out of the back of the telly. Pic D’Orhy is playing at home and is a horse I always underestimate, so I’ll be favouring him.
Robbie Wilders I can’t have him. He’s so difficult to predict and his form away from Kempton is nothing to write home about. It remains to be seen whether a change of surroundings will benefit him, while Pic D’Orhy may have left his race behind with a lung-bursting effort in the Charlie Hall. I favour the second-season chasers with Gidleigh Park just preferred to Jango Baie, who may need it slightly more after a wind op.
Who else should we keep an eye on this Saturday?
James Knight I like Brookie in the 3.15 Ascot. He’s still relatively unexposed as a chaser and has a more progressive profile than most of his rivals. He ran a really encouraging race on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham, making late ground in a race when nothing really got into it from off the pace. That should tee him up perfectly for this.
Megan Nicholls Back up at Haydock, I think Escapeandevade (12.40) has a big chance. He ran well on his stable/seasonal debut at Uttoxeter when getting tired late on. He’s a big horse who likes to get on with things and he just did a bit too much on that occasion. He’ll be fitter this time and he’s versatile ground-wise. Harry Derham is another trainer in form and this horse has a strong chance of providing the team with another Saturday winner.
Jonathan Pearson There’s good racing in Ireland. I can’t help but feel Kitzbuhel (12.32 Punchestown) has gone a little bit under the radar with all the talk about various other Donnelly horses. He goes chasing for the first time and he might be a fair bit better than what he has shown.
Lossiemouth: the big draw at PunchestownCredit: John Grossick
Tom Scudamore I’ll be watching Punchestown with interest. Lossiemouth is obvious, but Kitzbuhel will be interesting to see over fences with Willie Mullins’ novice chasers doing all right.
Robbie Wilders Shomen Uchi catches the eye in the 3m½f handicap chase (3.35) at Haydock. Pound-for-pound, Sam Thomas must be one of the best trainers around, and this half-brother to the yard’s brilliant Ladbrokes Trophy winner Katate Dori has a nice opening mark. He’s had only one start over fences, but looked a natural chaser and will improve for this longer trip, while Thomas is a master at readying them first time out.
James Knight It doesn’t feel like a betting race as so much of the outcome will depend on how fit the horses are. Fact To File is probably the most likely winner under the conditions, but I’ll be keeping a close eye on Inothewayurthinkin. If he shapes well in defeat then I could see his Cheltenham Gold Cup odds tightening up.
Megan Nicholls Fact To File tried a few trips last year and I think a sharp three miles is suitable, but ultimately this is probably his optimum. He’s a horse with a high cruising speed and a lot of class. This looks the perfect starting point, he’s pretty straightforward in comparison to plenty in this field and, therefore, should be very hard to beat.
Jonathan Pearson This looks to be the race of the weekend and it would be nice to see Fact To File repeat the success of last year. At a bigger price, I can see Lecky Watson running a big race and having a good season. His win at the Cheltenham Festival last season was no fluke and I’ll be paying close attention to him through the season.
Tom Scudamore Fact To File. He was fantastic in the race last year, imperious at Cheltenham and, with that in mind, I can’t oppose him here. It’s a cracking race.
Robbie Wilders There is more than enough depth in the race to be opposing Fact To File at odds-on. He doesn’t have as big a buffer over the field as the prices suggest and we’ve no idea how fit he’ll be on his comeback. We’ve had three short-priced favourites beaten in the past four runnings and he could be the next.
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