Sports Mole previews Saturday’s Eredivisie clash between Ajax and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
In danger of dropping out of the top four in the Eredivisie table, Ajax welcome SBV Excelsior to the Johan Cruyff Arena on Saturday, aiming to return to winning ways in the gameweek 13 encounter.
Fred Grim remains in interim charge of De Joden, following reports that Erik ten Hag has declined a return to Amsterdam, leaving last year’s runners-up without a permanent head coach after Johnny Heitinga was dismissed before the international break.
Match preview
Ajax are in a dire situation after heading into the international break following another defeat, this time 2-1 to FC Utrecht.
That setback, although only the Amsterdam-based club’s second loss of the season, means they are barely clinging to fourth place in the table, with Utrecht and Groningen on 19 points and NEC two adrift on 18.
This leaves open the possibility of falling out of the Europa League qualifying spots if the capital club are further disappointed this weekend, especially as recent results have left them four points behind third-placed AZ Alkmaar.
Even at this point in the season, an 11-point gap to PSV Eindhoven suggests a title challenge is unlikely; however, securing the coveted second and third-place spots remains possible.
Nevertheless, stalemates must be turned into wins for De Godenzonen, who have recorded five wins, five draws and two defeats after 12 games.
Two losses are only fewer than PSV’s single defeat in the division, indicating a team that may be difficult to beat — domestically at least — but one lacking the goalscoring ability to win many matches.
Ajax’s five wins are fewer than all but one team in the top eight of the Eredivisie — FC Twente with four wins — but the struggling Lancers will be hopeful ahead of facing Excelsior this weekend.
This is despite both teams’ nearly identical records over the past five matches, with the Rotterdam visitors’ four points being one fewer than Ajax’s in that period.
Nevertheless, the Kralingers have historically experienced nothing but disappointment in this fixture, having not secured a victory against the Dutch giants since December 2007.
Almost exactly 18 years after beating Ajax 2-1 in Rotterdam, Ruben den Uil takes his Excelsior side to the capital, aiming to end his team’s 19-match winless streak in this fixture.
Despite avoiding defeat in only four of those 19 matches, Excelsior can take some comfort in the fact that two of those draws occurred in the season they failed to avoid relegation: two 2-2 ties in the 2023-24 season.
Given Ajax’s current form, the travelling supporters will hope for a similar result, as the promoted side seek to avoid slipping into the bottom two places, with Telstar and Heracles one point behind the Rotterdam visitors.
A first victory in Amsterdam in recorded history, however, could elevate Den Uil’s 16th-placed team to as high as 13th, although this depends on results elsewhere going in their favour.
Ajax Eredivisie form:
Ajax form (all competitions):
SBV Excelsior Eredivisie form:
SBV Excelsior form (all competitions):
Team News
Although he played 90 minutes in the loss at Utrecht, Wout Weghorst is carrying an injury that makes the forward’s involvement uncertain.
Also uncertain to play is Owen Wijndal, but Steven Berghuis (groin) and Branco van den Boomen (back) are absent.
Despite the upheaval around him, Mika Godts has scored in three Eredivisie games in a row, and the forward aims to keep his run going to add to his five league strikes.
Ilias Bronkhorst was substituted after 15 minutes in Excelsior’s defeat by Heracles before the international break, pointing to the right-back joining Simon Janssen and Lennard Hartjes (knee) on the sidelines.
Only Gyan de Regt and Szymon Wlodarczyk have netted more than once this season for the promoted club, highlighting the low scorers’ challenges in the attacking third.
Ajax possible starting lineup:
Pasveer; Rosa, Sutalo, Baas, Alders; Regeer, Taylor; Edvardsen, Gloukh, Godts; Dolberg
SBV Excelsior possible starting lineup:
Van Gassel; Martens, Widell, Meissen, Henderikx; Naujoks, Carlen, Yegoian; Fernandes, Wlodarczyk, De Regt
We say: Ajax 2-1 SBV Excelsior
While Ajax’s form in Amsterdam at the start of the campaign compensated for their series of away draws, their form in the capital has declined in the past two matches, earning just one point from the six available.
However, facing a struggling Excelsior should offer a welcome relief for the hosts, who are expected to return to winning ways against their visitors from Rotterdam.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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