Ireland v Springboks prediction: Rassie Erasmus’ ‘trump card’ tipped to eclipse Andy Farrell’s ‘back in sync’ Irish
It’s safe to say the build-up to this Ireland versus South Africa renewal has been a sweetness and light affair compared to the warmongering hype generated 16 months ago.
There was something about that Irish visit in July 2024 that worked Springbok fans into a frenzy, and some of their players happily fuelled this divisive narrative.
The fuse was lit by Eben Etzebeth’s perceived post-Rugby World Cup game slight and the ‘war’ comment from Damian de Allende only whipped things up further in the lead-up to that two-match series.
The animosity this created wasn’t the best look, especially when the late twist of the Ciaran Frawley drop goals in Durban levelled the series for Ireland and denied the humbled hosts their anticipated 2-0 clean sweep.
SOS
Fast forward to November 2025, and the enmity – at least in public – has mellowed. A one-off fixture during a packed month of matches was always going to have a different dynamic compared to last year’s series, but the respect the teams have for each other has been the dominant narrative ahead of Saturday.
It’s the way it should be and, truth be told, South Africans should genuinely have a depth of gratitude towards Ireland. After all, if the Irish hadn’t obliterated the Boks 38-3 in Dublin in 2017, Allister Coetzee could well have remained in charge rather than an SOS getting sent to Rassie Erasmus in Munster to come and save them.
That humiliation radically changed the course of their history, and just their second trip back to Ireland since then sees the Boks arriving as back-to-back World Cup champions, back-to-back Rugby Championship champions and, without doubt, the game’s current No.1 side.
There is so much that others in the sport could learn from the way Erasmus is going about his Springbok business, building his squad for Rugby World Cup 2027 while at the same time trying to ensure the week-to-week results and performances remain acceptable.
It’s been a riveting spectacle, full of thrills, spills and innovation in a calendar year where Ireland, contrastingly, have had their development stymied with Andy Farrell on his British and Irish Lions sabbatical.
We finally got a reminder of the old Farrell way with last weekend’s record dismissal of the Wallabies, a riposte that sets things up intriguingly for this weekend’s November marquee fixture.
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Where the game will be won
The calibre of the South African attack now marshalled by young Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu will be critical in determining the outcome.
Sift through the four recent matches between the countries and for all the chat about the Springboks’ power game, Ireland found a clinical way on three occasions to stop this from translating into the concession of tries.
In 2022, it was only a pair of too-late South African tries that tightened up the 19-16 scoreline. Crossing the whitewash was also too big a hurdle in the 13-8 World Cup game 10 months later (they only did so once), and it can’t be overlooked how all their points in the 24-25 loss last time out in Durban against the Irish came from Handre Pollard off the kicking tee.
Only in Pretoria the week before, where they got off to a third-minute Kurt-Lee Arendse flyer and scored three tries in total (including a penalty try at the scrum), have the Boks had their way versus Farrell’s side, so tries will be critical if they are to win in Dublin for the first time since 2012.
The battle in the skies will play an important part in determining how it all unfolds, as will whether the Irish set-piece can stand up to scrutiny. But in the exciting Feinberg-Mngomezulu, South Africa now have a talent who can light things in a myriad of ways compared to the more pragmatic approach with Pollard at No.10.
Irish optimism, though, will stem from last week’s return to form of glue player Jamison Gibson-Park and this week’s restoration of a better balance to their back row with skipper Caelan Doris back at No.8 and Josh van der Flier at openside.
If those three players can wield their influence, we are in for a cracker of a showdown provided referee Matthew Carley doesn’t play spoilsport and bog down the proceedings.
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Last time they met
What they said
Ireland boss Farrell has a particular way with words, saying much without saying anything a lot of the time. But he generated headlines on Thursday for his chutzpah in backing inexperienced fly-half Sam Prendergast, who held onto the No.10 shirt despite growing public concerns about his tackling ability.
“I understand the question, and it’s a question that obviously keeps popping up, but Sam’s ability as a fly-half far outweighs a work-on within his game,” he insisted. “I thought he was tremendous last week; his skillset has been fantastic for all to see.”
Things then got a bit awkward when he was asked if he had specifically spoken to Prendergast about his defence. “I understand your question again, but they’re loaded questions, do you know what I mean? Because then it’s obvious we have to talk about that, but your question could be asked about any single player throughout.
“Of course, we constantly talk to individuals about all aspects of their play, so to think that we’re just focusing on one aspect of one player is not right. For example, I spoke to our two leaders yesterday [Wednesday] about certain aspects of their game.
“I’m talking about Caelan Doris and Dan Sheehan, world-class players, and they agree with their work-ons, so it’s constant throughout for every single member of every single squad in world rugby.”
It was a canny defence of his under-fire pick, broadening the conversation to include Doris and Sheehan, and it was the sort of insight the guarded Farrell doesn’t usually volunteer at top-table media events.
A curious line from the Erasmus media briefing, held a few hours earlier on Thursday, was the latter part of his response to the query whether Saturday’s result would define the Springboks’ year as “a really successful season or just a good season”.
“We would love to win this game, we would love to say we had a great season, we beat Ireland in Dublin, which we haven’t done since I have been involved, so it will be great,” said the coach.
“But to say it will be disastrous or an average season, you’re probably right. Winning 12 out of 15 games is probably no great season and we still have Wales to play. It will define us in a way, but we’ll keep reality in our minds.”
Revenge wouldn’t be a motivation, he added. “It’s not revenge, it’s a nice competitive environment with a team that has always, in the last two years, been in the top one to four in the world. It’s exciting, it’s something we haven’t done [won in Dublin in a long while], so let’s go and try to do it.
“If we don’t get it right, we know we will get a lot of flak, but Australia beat us at Ellis Park and life moved on. We played the All Blacks and gave one of the biggest scores in the history of the game.
“If you dwell too much on things, you tend to stand still a little bit. But it will be great for all of us to say we managed to get one in Dublin because they have certainly had our number in the last couple of games.”
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Players to watch
From an Irish perspective, Gibson-Park is the speed of thought and deed operator that makes them tick.
As much as there was kudos for Prendergast’s attacking arsenal last weekend, the scrum-half is the player that Ireland depend most on to get them going. If he doesn’t play at the top of his game, Ireland don’t have a high enough tempo to create.
The Kiwi makes players around him look good, so his return to form against the Wallabies was perfect timing, given how attack coach Andrew Goodman, who succeeded Mike Catt last year, was coming under scrutiny for the stunted creativity on show.
Curbing Gibson-Park will be high on the Springboks to-do list, as will coming up with a ploy to shackle Mack Hansen. No one predicted he would he such a roaring success as a Test full-back, but a first-half try hat-trick has whetted the appetite for more.
In between the No.9 and the No.15, Irish No.10 Prendergast will be the focus. He came second-best to Jack Crowley in the selection stakes at the start of the month, but Farrell has since rolled the dice in backing the youngster to help Ireland produce on the front foot.
There is a flip side gamble to his presence – and you can bet your last rand that Jasper Wiese and co. are licking their lips with the prospect of galloping down his channel and looking to defensively expose him.
Given what they had to say leading into the 2024 series, an eye should also be kept on the level of positive contribution from Etzebeth and De Allende.
It’s time they walked the talk of last year’s bravado and played their part in securing their team a first win in Dublin in 13 years. Both were in the Boks line-up humiliated at the Aviva in 2017, so it really is an opportune moment for payback.
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Prediction
Ireland will feel they are back in sync after last week’s thumping 46-19 victory over Australia. Not since the opening part of the February second half against England did they look so potent and cohesive on the ball, and they deserve kudos for the margin of success.
Remember when they were more consistent with their form and up there battling to be the world’s No.1, they only managed to secure three-point wins over the Aussies in 2022 and 2024, so there was great merit in their comprehensive 27-point success.
That said, the Irish have spent the guts of 2025 in a holding role with Farrell on Lions duty rather than fully evolving their game or the depth of their squad, and this is where Erasmus holds the trump card.
He has rotated his players, innovated with new things, added fresh layers to their attack and seen how they successfully cope with periods of strife such as those permanent red cards in France and Italy.
There is a starting XV grittiness to them that suggests they will have Ireland’s number on this occasion, a hunch added to by what they will then introduce from their bench. It’s why South Africa are tipped for the win by a two-score margin.
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Previous results
2024: Ireland won 25-24 in Durban
2024: South Africa won 27-10 in Pretoria
2023: Ireland won 13-8 in Paris
2022: Ireland won 19-16 in Dublin
2017: Ireland won 38-3 in Dublin
2016: South Africa won 19-13 in Port Elizabeth
2016: South Africa won 32-26 in Johannesburg
2016: Ireland won 26-20 in Cape Town
2014: Ireland won 29-15 in Dublin
2012: South Africa won 16-12 in Dublin
2010: South Africa won 23-21 in Dublin
2009: Ireland won 15-10 in Dublin
2006: Ireland won 32-15 in Dublin
The teams
Ireland: 15 Mack Hansen, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris (c), 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Ryan Baird, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 James Ryan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter
Replacements: 16 Rónan Kelleher, 17 Paddy McCarthy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Cian Prendergast, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Craig Casey, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Tom Farrell
Springboks: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Canan Moodie, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Boan Venter
Replacements: 16 Johan Grobbelaar, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 RG Snyman 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Andre Esterhuizen, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok
Date: Saturday, November 22
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Kick-off: 17:40 local (19:40 SAST)
Referee: Matthew Carley (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (RFU), Christophe Ridley (RFU)
TMO: Andrew Jackson (RFU)
FRPO: Dan Jones (RFU)
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