The TCU Horned Frogs (6-4, 3-4 Big 12) and Houston Cougars (8-2, 5-2) tangle in Big 12 action Saturday. The contest at TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas, will kick off at 4 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA football odds around the TCU at Houston odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Texas Christian lost 44-13 (Over 52.5) at -3 BYU last Saturday and has dropped 2 in a row. The Horned Frogs, who averaged 36.3 points per game over their first 7 contests, have tallied just 53 points over their last 3 games.
No. 24 Houston heads into Saturday’s home game off a bye week. The Cougars last played 2 Fridays back (Nov. 7) when they defeated -1 UCF 30-27 (Over 47.5). UH — one of four 5-2 Big 12 squads heading into the weekend — ran for 210 yards against UCF and has rushed for 180-plus yards in 3 of its last 4 games.
Last fall, the Cougars defeated the Frogs (30-19 Oct. 4, 2024) for the first time since 1992. In an all-time series that dates back to 1976, UH leads 14-13.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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TCU at Houston odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:33 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): TCU -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Houston -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): TCU +1.5 (-115) | Houston -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 55.5 (O: -102 | U: -118)
TCU at Houston picks and predictions
Prediction
Houston 28, TCU 27
No interest; PASS.
Houston has lost 3 straight games ATS when coming off a bye week. Prior to filing ATS losses the last 2 weeks, TCU had won 3 straight November games ATS.
Texas Christian heads into this game off 3 straight ATS losses. But QB Josh Hoover directs a passing attack that figures to be the best the UH defense has faced since Oct. 4 when the Cougars were routed 35-11 by Texas Tech.
Overall, Houston has played the lesser schedule in this matchup. Look for the Frogs to be explosive and on-schedule in the passing game. A revenge-minded TCU squad has value in this one.
BACK THE HORNED FROGS +1.5 (-115).
The Under is 8-3 across Houston’s last 11 home games. And the Under is 4-1 in the last 5 games of this series.
Both defenses are solid on third downs and should be able to force a few long-field punts. Expect some field-position ball to be on display for large swaths of action.
The UNDER 55.5 (-118) is the value side.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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