2025 FCS Bracketology 4.0 — FCS Playoff Predictions (11-18-2025)

The 2025 FCS playoff bracket has 24 teams, featuring 11 auto-bids from 11 conferences and 13 at-large bids. Sixteen teams will be seeded, with the Top 8 receiving first-round byes and seeds 9-16 hosting first-round games.

How the playoff field changes and takes shape every week is fascinating. So after every weekend of games moving forward, I will predict what the bracket will look like.

Below are predictions for the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, the bracket, and which teams are on the bubble.

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Notes

These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration. 

This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.

The seeds associated with teams won’t be the same as my Top 25 rankings. My poll ballot is ranking teams based on performances/resumes so far. This bracketology is projecting ahead.

The Field

2021-2024 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 29/32 Top 8 seeds correct, 92/96 teams in the field correct

Seeds
1. North Dakota State
2. Montana
3. Lehigh
4. Montana State
5. Tarleton State
6. Tennessee Tech
7. Mercer
8. Harvard
9. Monmouth
10. Illinois State
11. Rhode Island
12. South Dakota
13. North Dakota
14. Abilene Christian
15. SFA
16. Villanova

Auto-Bids
Big Sky – Montana
CAA – Rhode Island
Ivy – Harvard
*MVFC – North Dakota State
NEC – CCSU
OVC-Big South – Tennessee Tech
Patriot – Lehigh
Pioneer – Drake
*SoCon – Mercer
*Southland – SFA
UAC – Abilene Christian

*Clinched auto-bid

At-Large Bids 
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams that are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.

Montana State (seed)
Tarleton State (seed)
Monmouth (seed)
Illinois State (seed)
South Dakota (seed)
North Dakota (seed)
Villanova (seed)
Youngstown State
Lamar
Last 4 In
21. UC Davis
22. Southeastern Louisiana University
23. Northern Arizona
24. Austin Peay

Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from the best chance to make the bracket out of this group to the worst chance.

1st 4 Out
25. South Dakota State
26. Dartmouth
27. New Hampshire
28. Southern Utah

Other bubble teams that could at least be initially discussed in a large pool of at-large considerations: William & Mary, Gardner-Webb, Lafayette, ETSU, Sac State, Western Carolina, Yale

The Bracket

Seeds 1-8 get a first-round bye, and seeds 9-16 will host first-round games as long as they meet the minimum bid.

First-round matchups are regionalized to save on travel costs. The committee tries to utilize as many bus trips (400 miles or less) as possible while avoiding regular-season rematches.

The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up. Regular-season non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.

If a conference has four or more teams in the bracket, the committee can add an extra flight to avoid having all teams on one side of the bracket.

The order of seeds is not determined by regionalization.

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The Explanation

Seeds

NDSU will have a stacked resume for the No. 1 seed at 12-0 with six currently-ranked wins (South Dakota, Illinois State, SIU, SDSU, YSU, UND).

The winner of No. 3 Montana State at No. 2 Montana will get the No. 2 seed. What will be interesting is how far the loser drops. Could the loser be the No. 3 seed? If Montana loses, it’d have a good argument to be No. 3 at 11-1, 10 D1 wins, and one currently-ranked win (UND). If MSU loses, it could drop below No. 3 at 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins (NAU, UC Davis). I could see the committee sliding up a 12-0 Lehigh team with two currently-ranked wins (Yale, Lafayette). However, MSU’s strength of schedule will be 3rd compared to Lehigh’s 93rd. Plus, if FCS administrators are encouraging scheduling tough non-conference games, how much do you punish MSU for having a second FCS loss when it played a Top 3 and healthy SDSU team to double-overtime?

Is losing a close game at Montana enough of a reason for the committee to move MSU behind Lehigh after it had MSU at No. 2 in the last in-season ranking? I’d put MSU at No. 3 even with a loss, but I think the committee would lean toward a 12-0 Lehigh team with its two ranked wins. Margin of victory could also be a factor in how far the loser of the Brawl falls.

Tarleton State should be in the Top 5 mix if it beats Austin Peay, finishing 11-1 with an FBS win (Army) and one currently-ranked win (West Georgia). Tarleton arguably should be seeded ahead of a 12-0 Lehigh team, but the committee had Lehigh ahead of the Texans in its last in-season ranking.

TN Tech also looks likely for a Top 8 seed if it beats UT Martin, finishing 11-1 overall and 10-0 vs. the FCS, although it won’t have any ranked wins and its SOS is 83rd.

Several teams will be in play for the last two Top 8 seeds.

Mercer has won nine straight games and is one of the hottest teams in the FCS right now. The Bears have a good argument for a first-round bye at 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS. Their offense is so much better now with Braden Atkinson at QB than what they showed in the first two games against UC Davis (called a no-contest due to weather) and in an ugly loss to Presbyterian. The Bears won’t have any currently-ranked wins, although they did beat a ranked WCU team two weekends ago. While the committee doesn’t use the coaches or media polls to influence their own rankings, the committee and both polls are usually pretty similar in their thinking. Mercer is Top 7 in both polls.

Harvard will finish 10-0 if it beats ranked Yale. The 84th SOS could keep it out of the Top 8. However, it isn’t that far off from Rhody’s (79th) or Monmouth’s (80th) strength of schedules, and those are two other 10-win teams that could be in play for a Top 8 seed. Monmouth has one currently-ranked win over Villanova, and Rhody has one currently-ranked win over New Hampshire.

An Illinois State team that is 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS with three currently-ranked wins (USD, SDSU, SIU) and an 18th SOS also has a good argument for a Top 8 seed.

USD, UND, and ACU are three projected eight-win teams with three currently-ranked wins — USD over UND, SDSU, and SIU; UND over YSU, SIU, and SDSU; ACU over SFA, West Georgia, and Tarleton State. Having three ranked wins combined with Top 12 strength of schedules should get these eight-win teams a first-round home game.

SFA should finish 10-2 overall, 9-1 vs. the FCS with nine D1 wins, and one currently-ranked win over Lamar. SFA’s 70th SOS could keep it out of the Top 16, but it is No. 14 and 13 in the polls. And as mentioned above, the committee usually has a similar way of thinking as the voting panels in the polls.

Villanova is projected to finish 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win over UNH. Nova’s SOS will be 56th. It isn’t an awesome resume, but Nova has played well down the stretch and is ranked No. 9 and 7 in the polls.

Unseeded At-Large Teams

I think YSU would deserve a first-round home game at 8-4 overall and 8-3 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins (Illinois State, SIU) and the 16th SOS. I’m just not sure the committee would seed YSU over SFA or Villanova, especially if it has similar thinking as the polls. Again, the committee doesn’t use the polls as a piece of their criteria to help determine their voting order. But they are naturally aware of the polls, some may use the polls as a way to count ranked wins, and usually a group of FCS followers (coaches poll voters, media poll voters, playoff committee) have a similar way of thinking.

Lamar should be in at 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins over USD and Southeastern. Lamar should also be considered for a Top 16 seed.

UC Davis is in at a projected 8-3 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win over NAU. The committee had been high on Davis in its in-season rankings, but is its year-end resume good enough for a Top 16 seed?

Southeastern, despite no currently-ranked wins, has a good argument to get in at 9-3 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS.

NAU also doesn’t own any currently-ranked wins. But at 8-4 overall and 8-3 vs. the FCS, I can see the committee putting them in the field.

The last spot will be very competitive. I could see either SDSU or Dartmouth in this spot. But I’ll go with Austin Peay for right now at 7-5 with a dominant FBS win over Middle TN State and one currently-ranked win over West Georgia. If the Govs beat Tarleton State, they are certainly in at 8-4. If they lose but compete well, that can go a long way. If they get blown out, that could be costly.

On The Outside

SDSU will be in if it wins at UND. But currently on a four-game losing streak with QB Chase Mason sidelined due to injury (among many others), SDSU will be the underdog. If the Jackrabbits lose, they’d be 7-5 with two currently-ranked wins over Montana State and YSU, but they would be on a five-game losing streak and have a 3-5 record in MVFC play. Every committee member is different, so it’s hard to know if more will favor overall body of work vs. how you’re playing down the stretch. If Mason plays, he plays well, and SDSU plays well overall but loses a tight game at UND, I could see a scenario where SDSU gets in at 7-5. If SDSU loses by a few scores with or without Mason, the Jacks would need a lot of bubble help and a lot of benefit of the doubt from the committee.

Dartmouth also has a legit argument to get in with a win this weekend, finishing 8-2 overall and owning two currently-ranked wins over UNH and Yale. Does the committee have enough respect for the Ivy League to put two teams in? We’ll see.

UNH could finish 8-4 overall and 8-3 vs. the FCS, featuring a currently-ranked win over Monmouth, plus a win over a potential eight-win W&M team. But a head-to-head loss to Dartmouth pushes it down.

SUU could be a sneaky team on the bubble if the committee looks hard at its resume. SUU is currently 6-5 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win (Abilene Christian). It also has a win over Austin Peay, who will be on the playoff bubble. If the Thunderbirds win this week, they will have seven D1 victories, on a six-game winning streak, and have wins over two teams in the playoff hunt. The committee would have to at least consider SUU. The Thunderbirds would have better wins than 8-win teams like W&M, Gardner-Webb, or Lafayette.