Premier League predictions and best bets: Tottenham to relish underdog tag and beat Arsenal
Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League and makes a case for Tottenham to win at Arsenal.
Leeds vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
The offside trap is back at Aston Villa.
It’s not just a quirk, not just a tactical flourish, it’s become the heartbeat of the defensive identity under Unai Emery. And crucially, there’s a genuine correlation between Villa getting that line right and Villa winning football matches.
Whenever Villa’s back four snap into line as one, they suffocate opponents. Attacks stall, runners misfire and dangerous moments dissolve into a raised flag and a reset.
Villa are catching the opposition offside 4.5 times per game across their last 12 games. And, in the last seven Premier League games they’ve caught 28 players offside – the most of any team by 10.
It’s no-coincidence then they’ve managed to win five of their last six Premier League matches. And Leeds do like to commit bodies forward in direct fashion. That tactical philosophy is tailor-made for Emery’s razor-precise trap to flourish once again.
All roads lead to backing Aston Villa to win at 6/4 with Sky Bet. If the flags are flying, Villa should be too.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Arsenal vs Tottenham, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Gabriel is the lynchpin of this Arsenal defence – their high line, their aerial insurance policy and their most physical presence in the back four. Without him, Arsenal may have a problem in the next few weeks if his abductor injury is as bad as early reports suggest. Starting here.
Tottenham under Thomas Frank will enjoy this derby day assignment.
Few managers in the league coach ‘underdog football’ as effectively as the former Brentford boss.
Frank’s Brentford side made a habit of punishing big teams. The smart money says he’ll try to copy-paste that blueprint here: frustrate, pounce, exploit the absence of Arsenal’s defensive enforcer from both open play and set pieces. Spurs have the quality to make a big move in the game – like they did away at Manchester City and in the Super Cup vs PSG.
The betting is obviously trending towards Arsenal at 2/5 with Sky Bet but that doesn’t fully account for the defensive reshuffle forced by Gabriel’s absence. Arsenal can and still probably will win, of course, but Tottenham suddenly have a real foothold in the match-up, and the market doesn’t quite reflect it.
Tottenham double chance it is then at 2/1 with Sky Bet. And, the 7/1 on an away win needs a good look, too.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Manchester United vs Everton, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Manchester United should come with a disclaimer: ‘entertaining but structurally unstable.’
Ruben Amorim has a team overflowing with attacking talent, energy and moments of genuine quality yet one that carries enough defensive looseness to turn every 90 minutes into a wild ride. There have been 37 goals in their Premier League games – working to an average of 3.36 per 90. No team averages higher.
They are the must-watch team in the Premier League because of it.
Amorim has realised that they are a team built for moments – not for consistency – and he’s embracing it.
And, goals at both ends are becoming the smartest angle in United’s games.
This looks a clash where both teams will fancy themselves going forward and neither will fully trust themselves without the ball. Sky Bet go 10/11 on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, and that looks very backable considering the direction of travel in United games.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ Profit & Loss record 25/26
Best Bet singles (1 unit)
Best Bet multiples
Total P+L
Matchday One
0
-1
-1
Matchday Two
0
-1
-2
Matchday Three
0
-1
-3
Matchday Four
0
-1
-4
Matchday Five
+2.75
-1
-2.75
Matchday Six
-1
-1
-4.75
Matchday Seven
-1
0
-5.75
Matchday Eight
-3
0
-8.75
Matchday Nine
0
-1
-9.75
Matchday 10
-1
-1
-11.75
Matchday 11
-1
0
-12.75
