Utah Jazz Facing Concern Over Losing First Round Pick?

The Utah Jazz have been a fun basketball team to watch through the first month of the NBA season.

Lauri Markkanen has been one of the premier scorers in the league, averaging over 30 points per game. Keyonte George is taking the year three leap, which gives Markkanen a potent sidekick on a nightly basis. Ace Bailey has become a nightly highlight factory who recorded consecutive 20 point games after being inserted into the starting lineup.

All in all, the Jazz are sitting at 5-9, a record that places them at 10th in the Western Conference, yet only three wins above the worst team in the conference, the New Orleans Pelicans.

Of course, losing Walker Kessler for the season was a major blow to any hope the team had of significantly making a run at any Play-In conversations, and thus keeps them out further out of reach from losing their top-eight protected first-round pick in the hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder, but still makes for a possibility worth keeping an eye on.

Now, are we really still talking about the pick that the Jazz attached to Derrick Favors to save the team money following their best season in decades? Why, yes, we are! Let’s dive into some housekeeping, then talk about where fans’ concern level should be.

The Pick

Nov 18, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) dribbles the ball against Utah Jazz forward Cody Williams (5) in the second quarter at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Oklahoma City Thunder, the reigning NBA Champions, who have lost just one game so far in the 2025-26 season, own Utah’s first-round pick if it falls anywhere between 9-30.

However, if the Jazz pick falls anywhere in the first 8 selections, they get to keep the pick, and the black cloud that’s been hanging over the team’s decisions for the past 3 years is gone for good. 

Regardless of what happens, whether the Jazz keep or lose the pick, they own their own pick for the indefinite future unless another move is made. Given this, and considering the team’s current standing, there is absolutely no reason for the Jazz to give that pick away.

The Lottery

May 12, 2024; Chicago, IL, USA; Representatives of the 14 NBA teams wait to go on stage during the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick Place West. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

The lottery, with its flattened odds, makes guaranteeing where you pick in the order impossible. Take last year, where the Jazz had the worst record in the league and ended up getting jumped by teams that finished 11th, 8th, and 5th in the lottery order.

Lottery luck is certainly nothing the Jazz can or should bank on. They’ve gone into the lottery with the 1st, 8th, and 9th best odds, and they’ve picked 5th, 10th, and 9th. 

So, where do the Jazz need to put themselves to not risk losing their pick? I personally would be happy with them ending anywhere in the top 6 of the pre-lottery order; that would give them, at worst, a 3.7% chance of sliding to 9th and conveying the pick to OKC. They’d also have at least a 37% chance of moving into the top-4.

If you’re on the more risk-averse side, and they finish in the bottom-five, they’d have at worst, greater than a 99% chance of keeping their pick.

The Concern

Nov 16, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Jazz guard Isaiah Collier (8) celebrates the game winning shot by Utah Jazz guard Keyonte George (3) during double overtime against the Chicago Bulls at Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Peter Creveling-Imagn Images | Peter Creveling-Imagn Images

So knowing all of that, how worrisome is it that the Jazz have started the season hotter than expected? I’m not worried for a few reasons.

For starters, without Kessler for the rest of the season, the Jazz are going to bleed points to their opponents, and there is really no answer they can find.

The Jazz also have one of, if not the, toughest remaining schedules in the NBA, depending on what source you find. For a young team struggling to find consistent production outside of its two best players, wins are going to be tough to come by.

And perhaps most importantly, the Jazz , hether they’ll admit it or not, have every incentive to keep their pick this year. Some other struggling teams, specifically the Pelicans and Clippers, have no incentive to lose, considering they don’t own their own pick.

That matters, especially late in the season when teams are ofte jockeying for draft position.

This isn’t to say that the Jazz won’t have to get a little dirty down the stretch, but as for right now, it’s okay to enjoy watching the progress that the young players have made. If you pay attention, you can start to see the outline of what the next great Jazz team could look like. It’ll become even clearer when they add another top-eight draft pick to the roster next summer.

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