Art by Kameron Wiley | Pictures property of their respective owners
Some prospects are immediately thrust into the spotlight. For the likes of Cooper Flagg, Paolo Banchero, and Victor Wembanyama, the lights were always bright. They entered their respective draft cycles with significant notoriety, pegged as the top prospects in their class. But for many players, this isn’t the case. Rather than beginning their pre-NBA careers at center stage, they stand stage left, where only a trickle of light illuminates their feet. The hope is that in each passing season, they’ll be able to take steps of varying sizes toward center stage, where they’ll finally get to enjoy their moment.
Nate Bittle is in that latter group. First, it’s important to understand that he wasn’t some under-the-radar nobody when he arrived in Oregon. Using the RSCI metric, Bittle was the 20th-ranked prospect in the high school class of 2020. The other thing it’s important to understand is that Nate Bittle has always been pretty good. While he only played 6.9 MPG in his first year on campus, Bittle rebounded well and blocked a ton of shots on a per-minute basis. Year over year, he continued to improve, getting closer and closer to the spotlight. However, it’s always felt like it was someone else’s moment at Oregon. His freshman year was about Will Richardson, a once-buzzy combo guard prospect. As a sophomore, he was overshadowed by N’Faly Dante’s breakout campaign and the arrival of five-star prospect Kel’el Ware, making him the third-most discussed big man in the rotation. The next season, Bittle only played five games due to injury. In his absence, freshman Kwame Evans produced well. So, entering last season, it was Kwame Evans that NBA evaluators focused on. Evans slumped as a sophomore, though, and Bittle emerged. Now, finally, in his graduate campaign, Bittle will be the center of NBA attention for the Oregon Ducks.
Nate Bittle’s moment has arrived. Questions remain, though. The first is whether or not Bittle can cease the moment, and to be quite blunt, I’m confident that he can. The next question is whether he has the game to be a long-term NBA player once he gets his foot in the door. That’s what we’re going to be digging into today.
Nate Bittle has a solid inside-out scoring arsenal. I’d imagine NBA teams are going to be most interested in the “out” part of that equation, though, given the continued evolution of the sport.
Over the course of his college career, Bittle has hit 33.7% of his triples. That doesn’t sound like anything out of this world, and it’s not. It’s a bit above average relative to long-term NBA big men in their pre-draft campaigns. What’s particularly interesting, though, is the volume. Bittle has long been a willing shooter from long range. He’s taken 6.3 threes per 100 possessions throughout his career, a mark that puts him in the upper echelon of recent big prospects. Volume is one of the best indicators of future NBA shooting, and Bittle has it. Plus, he’s made 80.6% of his free throws between this season and last, which is a rare mark for a player his size to hit. The tape backs up the numbers. When Bittle catches the ball and he has space, he takes the shot. It’s not the prettiest thing in the world. He hardly elevates off the ground at all, and he brings the ball to his forehead before shooting it at a 45-degree angle. Still, it’s workable, and the results are tough to quibble with. Bittle’s volume, consistency, and prior production suggest that he has a great chance to be an above-average marksman for a center at the NBA level.
Bittle can get it done on the interior, too. Last season, he ranked in the 85th percentile on post-up frequency and in the 84th percentile on post-up efficiency, per Synergy. While I doubt an NBA team will be eager to throw any non-star big man on the block and have him go to work, this isn’t without utility. He’ll routinely punish smaller players on switches by getting inside positioning before catching an entry pass and getting an easy finish. If the wrong player switches onto him, or if defensive communication lapses against early offense, Bittle will make them pay. He can thrive in other ways, too. He does a phenomenal job of opening up space from the dunkers spot, often positioning himself deep by the baseline to maximize space for his teammates while allowing him to sneak in for cuts when the opportunities present themselves. As a roller, he positions himself well in the pocket and is ready to receive the pass.
Still, Bittle isn’t without his faults. For starters, he’s not a great run-jump athlete. He rarely gets out in transition, and he only tallied 26 total dunks this past season. As a result, he’s best served playing a bit slower in an NBA where teams want to play at a faster pace. And these issues don’t suddenly disappear in the halfcourt, either. He’s not a violent, rim-rocking roller like Zach Edey or Dereck Lively. Instead, he can be plodding on his way to the basket and forced to rely on touch shots, which are a tricky predicament against rim helpers who can make timely rotations. My other gripe is that there isn’t much of a marriage between his perimeter and interior scoring. Bittle can knock down a jumper or finish a cut. But if he has to attack a closeout, the results aren’t pretty. He’s clunky with his dribble and comes unglued against contact. Per Synergy, he registered 19 drives last season and only scored 12 points on them. In order to find NBA success, Bittle will either need to become a genuine knockdown threat from deep or find a way to score at the rim more consistently.
A big part of what drove me to cover Bittle this week is his passing, as I believe he’s been one of the most overlooked five-man in the country when it comes to this particular skill. Between this year and last, Bittle has put together a 14.2 AST% and an 11.6 TOV%. So, it’s not just that he’s an effective, productive passer; it’s that he’s also a low-mistake passer.
Bittle’s vision is tremendous. Whether he’s posting someone on the block or orchestrating the offense from the top of the key, he’s able to see the floor beyond the basics. Bittle can do the simple things, like making sharp .5 skips or leveraging his shooting gravity to punish a help defender who comes flying his way. But he’s also great at making precise passes to open shooters on the opposite side of the floor or to cutting teammates. He stays poised against double teams while using his length to generate advantageous passing angles to ensure a precise delivery. He’s a smart, reliable passer who can execute within the flow of the offense or make an off-script read based on what the defense presents him.
In recent years, we’ve seen an uptick in the assist rates among college big men entering the NBA. The reason for that is simple—the NBA requires big men to make more decisions, and more difficult decisions, more often than they did ten or fifteen years ago. The days of the rim-running, play-finishing big man aren’t over yet, but we’re seeing fewer of them on the league’s best teams. Skill is at a premium. Bittle’s ability to generate high percentage shots for his teammates while limiting possessions going the other way means that he fits this trend like a glove.
A big part of Nate Bittle’s appeal comes on the defensive end. First, let’s start with the measurements. He’s a big dude. At G League Elite Camp, Bittle stood 7’0.5” with a 7’5.75” wingspan and a 9’5” standing reach while tipping the scales at 252 pounds. That’s exactly the type of size and length that NBA teams want to see in a drop coverage big man. On top of having the requisite dimensions to play the five in the NBA, he’s pretty damn good at the “playing basketball” side of things, too.
Throughout the course of his college career, Bittle has registered an 8.4 BLK%, which is a comfortably above-average mark relative to other long-term NBA big men during their pre-draft campaigns. He really knows how to play in drop coverage. He takes good angles to prevent easy passes to the big man while still keeping the ball handler honest. His length goes a long way on that front, as he can nab blocks in floater range after guards find themselves stuck and put up ill-advised shots. He has great hand-eye coordination, enabling him to pinpoint the ball without fouling. Simply put, it’s hard to play around him when teams get deep into the paint out of a ball screen. Plus, Bittle exercises a tremendous level of discipline. He is great at deciding when to leave his feet. Because he exercises caution with regard to staying grounded, he’s tough to get off-balance with a pump fake and bait him into fouling. There’s more to rim protection than shot-blocking, and Bittle is a great example of that. Even if he’s not going to tally a rejection on the stat sheet, he’s not going to give up an easy look. He’ll deter drivers and deliver potent contests. Per Synergy, Bittle held opponents to 34.7% on halfcourt rim attempts last season. His combination of size, timing, and discipline should make him a good drop coverage defender at the next level.
There are still concerns here. His movements look a bit labored. He’s not as nimble as Ryan Kalkbrenner, for instance. Bittle is a bit heavy laterally, and when he gets shaken on the perimeter, he doesn’t have the recovery tools to burst back into the play. When he’s the player getting screened, he has a hard time navigating the action. Plus, he’s most comfortable deep in drop, so talented pull-up shooters may be able to punish his lack of agility. As the NBA trends toward five-out, and inverted ball-screen actions become more prevalent, this lack of comfort away from the basket could be something that opponents exploit.
When evaluating a prospect, one of the simplest but important questions to ask is, “What can this guy do at an NBA level?” Bittle has three big arrows in his quiver. The first is that he has a good college shooting resume relative to recent big men who found NBA success. He’s a confident, high-volume shooter from beyond the arc with strong statistical indicators. The next is that he’s a polished playmaker with strong assist and turnover rates at a time when those numbers have never been more important for centers. Lastly, he has a long track record of effectively patrolling the paint and protecting the rim in drop coverage. There are viable paths for him to provide value on both sides of the floor.
Still, I want to exercise a degree of caution here. For starters, Bittle is on the older side, as he’ll turn 23 prior to draft night. Then, there are reasons to be concerned about his scoring profile. While Bittle’s long been a willing shooter, he’s never completed a whole season where he went over 34% from beyond the arc. Throw in the fact that he struggled as a finisher last season, and there’s a “where does he score?” predicament brewing if he’s not a knockdown three-point shooter. Lastly, I have real pause about his lack of agility defensively. As the sport increasingly trends toward a five-out play style, the ability to guard in space becomes more important. It’s one thing to stomach when a player can be a high-leverage mismatch scorer on the other end of the floor like Zach Edey, but Bittle isn’t that, and if the shot doesn’t come along, he could be in trouble on both sides of the ball.
I don’t like to get declarative this early in the cycle. There’s a lot of time for newcomers to settle in and adjust. While teams are playing more and more games, the number of truly meaningful ones on a night-to-night basis is still quite low. This week’s stretch of MTEs and tournaments should improve the quality of the sample. Even with Bittle, an established player where we have heaps of data and tape available, I want to see more before I firmly put my foot down. At this point in the cycle, he’s a guy I view as teetering between “second round guaranteed deal” and “two-way contract” value. His aforementioned shortcomings definitely scare me a little bit. Still, the number of genuine three-and-D big men in the NBA is quite low. It’s a relatively rare archetype, and one that allows for much greater offensive flexibility. This makes Bittle’s value proposition quite strong. If his jumper is a legitimate weapon, he could easily play his way up boards, because this type of player doesn’t grow on trees. We’ll find out, because Nate Bittle’s moment has arrived. I cannot wait to see what he makes of it.
-How about Kingston Flemings?! The 6’4” lead guard from Houston has been phenomenal to start the year. He has a very quick first step, but he also feels totally in control of his on-ball movements at all times. He can go from bursting forward to stopping on a dime in no time, getting defenders out of position time and time again. He’s also shown a healthy level of poise against heavy pressure and aggressive coverages. When he goes downhill, he stays very fluid in his process, making last-second passes when needed or simply finishing if the look is there. Plus, he’s a confident pull-up shooter from the mid-range and three. Defensively, he knows how to read the opposing offense. There are a few things I’ll be monitoring here. One is his interior finishing, as he greatly prefers finishing with his right hand even when it’s a riskier proposition. The other is where his three-ball will settle, as we’re dealing with a small, low-volume sample currently. I also think he can be too upright defensively at times. With all that being said, I think Flemings is awesome, and his sudden emergence has been an exciting surprise.
-I’m hoping we can see Malachi Moreno get more run. The 7’0” freshman from Kentucky has a high level of offensive skill for a player his size. He can make excellent passes and creative deliveries from both the top of the key and the block. Defensively, he’s a seamless mover in space. His length and timing enable him to be a major contributor on the glass on both ends. The swing skill, at least for me, is going to be his defensive motor. While the sample size is incredibly small, his 0.5 STL% and 6.5 BLK% (that was a 2.5 BLK% before he beat up on Loyola Maryland) aren’t blowing the doors off me. It feels like he’s going through the motions and letting the game happen around him at times. NBA teams desperately need high feel, high skill big men who can move, and Moreno is that. He just needs to show it on both sides of the ball.
-I continue to be fascinated with Marquette’s Chase Ross. In past years, the 6’4”, 210-pound combo guard played more of an off-ball role. Still, he’d shown an exceptional ability to incite havoc as an off-ball defender. He’s a high-motor hustler who entered the year with a career 3.6 STL% and 2.1 BLK%, which are tremendous numbers for a guard. This year, he’s been the Golden Eagles’ leading man. While Marquette’s win-loss record isn’t great, it’s hard not to get excited about Ross, who has seen a near 10% increase in his usage rate while improving his true shooting percentage. He’s a blur downhill, he draws a ton of fouls, and he’s seeing the floor well after he collapses defenses. Ross is in the highly coveted Switchblade Guard archetype (copyright Chuck). When I covered him for No Stone Unturned, I noted similarities to DeAnthony Melton, Keon Ellis, and Jaylen Clark. Now that we’ve seen him cook on the ball more, I’m increasingly encouraged.
-I thought Flory Bidunga’s performance against Duke was encouraging. The 6’9” big man has always been an excellent rim-runner and shot blocker who can effortlessly posterize opponents and block shots. What encouraged me about this game in particular, though, was his passing. He made some nice dishes out of the block and looked more comfortable on the ball in past years. For undersized, non-shooting bigs, it’s incredibly important to have some sort of on-ball skill. While Bidunga may not be Draymond Green as a handler as a passer, the fact that he’s taking steps in the right direction is meaningful.
-We got our first look at Massamba Diop against high-level competition recently. The 7’1” freshman out of Arizona State burst onto radars early in the year, putting together some highlight reel dunks and step-back threes. Against Gonzaga, he had some good and bad moments. He used his length to disrupt plays defensively, showcased his lateral agility, looked like an NBA player getting up and down the floor, and functioned well as a vertical spacing threat. While he didn’t hit his own three, he showed a degree of comfort in his shot that was encouraging. Still, there are some things to work through. He needs to get stronger, and he’s particularly slim through his lower half. His offensive process is a bit clunky, too. He can stop the ball and take difficult mid-range shots early in the clock. Even with these issues, his combination of size, ball-handling ability, shooting touch, and functional athleticism makes him an interesting and legitimate NBA prospect. I’m excited to see how he progresses throughout the season, given that he was pigeonholed into a more basic rim-runner role overseas that he appears to have been overqualified for.
-Marshall’s Wyatt Fricks caught my eye as a sleeper. The 6’9” wing has looked like a sniper from three so far this season, going 43.3% from deep on 9.9 threes per 100 possessions. He has deep range off the catch and can drill triples in transition. There’s more to him than that, though. Fricks is a bouncy athlete who can finish above the rim, put it on the floor a little bit, and make good passing decisions quickly. He has defensive upside, too. He plays with physicality and communicates well. He has serious lift on the interior and does a good job of contesting with verticality. His career 1.i STL% and 4.5 BLK% are rock solid. It’s fair to be skeptical of a suddenly emergent fifth-year Sun Belt player in an era where good mid-major players typically flee for big-name programs at the first opportunity. Plus, he’s a career 29% from deep and 64.2% on free throws. If his shot regresses to a significant degree, so will his potential value. But it’s hard not to be intrigued with a 6’9” player who is showing skill and athleticism on both sides of the ball. He’s worth monitoring.
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