Champions League projections: Will Arsenal or Bayern extend their perfect start? – The Athletic
Some serious matchups headline the matchweek five menu in the Champions League.
As we enter the second half of the league phase, the eight automatic qualification spots are filled with pre-tournament favourites. Bayern Munich and Arsenal top the billing with four wins from four matches, and they meet at the Emirates on Wednesday night. A few heavyweights are on the outside looking in but like last season, the table is congested. Two points separate reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain in fifth and Atalanta in 16th.
Using The Athletic’s projections — powered by Opta data — we outline the five matches that could create ripples across the table.
Arsenal vs Bayern Munich (Wednesday 8pm GMT/3pm ET)
The Champions League will lose at least one perfect record in north London on Wednesday.
Arsenal are second in the actual table on goal difference but lead in our projected points model with 20 (above), one more than Bayern. The data suggests teams are almost guaranteed to finish in the top eight (more than 95 per cent), with Arsenal the favourites to win the final in May (24 per cent) following a 3-0 win against Slavia Prague in matchweek four.
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have won all four of their Champions League games this season (Gabriel Kuchta/Getty Images)
On the same night, Bayern handled a big away test at PSG, winning 2-1 despite playing the second half with 10 men following Luis Diaz’s dismissal. That saw their trophy-lifting chances improve from nine per cent (fourth best) to 14 per cent (second best). The win in Paris was built on a suffocating out-of-possession performance but the schemes of head coach Vincent Kompany will be meeting a worthy opponent in north London.
Both teams enjoyed goal-laden domestic outings over the weekend, too, to wrest control at the top of their leagues with six-point leads. Eberechi Eze’s hat-trick powered Arsenal to a 4-1 derby win over Tottenham Hotspur, while Bayern had five different goalscorers in a 6-2 victory over Freiburg.
Arsenal’s remaining Champions League fixtures: Club Brugge (A), Inter (A), Kairat (H)
Bayern’s remaining fixtures: Sporting CP (H), Union Saint-Gilloise (H), PSV (A)
Chelsea vs Barcelona (Tuesday 8pm GMT/3pm ET)
Having begun the campaign with a projected points tally of 15, Chelsea and Barcelona have picked up seven points from four matches. The data would imply they are just about on track, but neither side would agree.
Barcelona dropped points at Club Brugge, a 3-3 draw that exposed their biggest flaws in an ineffective forward press and disjointed offside trap. Chelsea led 1-0 at Qarabag but could only draw 2-2, with the hosts limiting the Club World Cup winners to just four shots on target.
The draw in Belgium reduced Barcelona’s projected chance of a top-eight finish to 45 per cent, with their overall victory chance standing at four per cent, under half of the nine per cent they began the campaign with.
Lamine Yamal scored a brilliant goal in Brugge but his side could only draw 3-3 (Nicolas Tucat/AFP via Getty Images)
Chelsea also have a four per cent chance of winning it all but the projected chance of direct qualification into the round of 16 are at 30 per cent. Defeat at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday will set alarm bells off, particularly with tricky trips to Italy to face Atalanta and Napoli among their final three matches.
Both teams will take confidence from their weekend performances in their domestic leagues. Barcelona romped to a 4-0 win over Athletic Club in their first match back at the Camp Nou in 909 days, while Chelsea eased past Burnley 2-0 at Turf Moor to move into second place in the Premier League.
Chelsea remaining fixtures: Atalanta (A), Pafos (H), Napoli (A)
Barcelona remaining fixtures: Eintracht Frankfurt (H), Slavia Prague (A), Copenhagen (H)
PSG vs Tottenham (Wednesday 8pm GMT/3pm ET)
They are the European champions but PSG’s home defeat against Bayern hinted at the hurdles they will need to jump to retain their title.
Even so, Luis Enrique’s are still projected to be a leading contender, with a 10 per cent chance of winning the competition. Their top-eight odds remain strong at 73 per cent, the fifth-best figure behind Arsenal, Bayern, Manchester City and Liverpool, due to their team strength and a favourable three-game slate to end the league phase.
They may not have as much security in Ligue 1 as they did last year, though. They hold a two-point lead over Marseille and Lens after 13 matches.
As for Tottenham Hotspur, there will be little time to mull over being hounded at the Emirates on Sunday. Spurs are 10th in the Champions League table and have just a 28 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight.
These teams met in the European Super Cup in August, with Spurs leading PSG 2-0 until the 85th minute in a game that brought Frank praise for his side’s set-piece threat and tactical flexibility. Cut to three months later and they have lost all potency, with just 0.2 expected goals (xG) generated across 180 minutes against Chelsea and Arsenal in recent Premier League fixtures.
Micky van de Ven scored the opener when Tottenham faced PSG in the Super Cup in August (Claudio Villa/Getty Images)
PSG remaining fixtures: Athletic Club (A), Sporting CP (A), Newcastle United (H)
Tottenham remaining fixtures: Slavia Prague (H), Borussia Dortmund (H), Eintracht Frankfurt (A)
Atletico Madrid vs Inter (Wednesday 8pm GMT/3pm ET)
Inter are the third perfect team after four games, echoing their start to the 2024-25 campaign, and stand to gain the most from Arsenal hosting Bayern.
The Serie A side are going under the radar, partly due to them facing four of the bottom nine teams (Ajax, Slavia Prague, Union and Kairat). Inter’s initial projected points tally of 13 has only risen to 17.
Despite their perfect record, their four per cent chance of winning the title is lower than Liverpool (12 per cent) and Real Madrid (five per cent) and the same as Barcelona — sides who have all shown glaring weaknesses already. Inter’s chances of finishing in the top eight (72 per cent) are high but considerably lower than Arsenal’s 98 and Bayern’s 96 per cent.
The rest of their schedule, starting with this visit to Madrid, is a factor.
Atletico, with six points, have a 12 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight, though their league-phase elimination odds have dropped from 27 per cent pre-tournament to four per cent now. They seem destined for the play-offs.
Julian Alvarez and Atletico Madrid have a point to prove against Inter (Alex Pantling/Getty Images)
Diego Simeone’s side have a point to prove after Arsenal hammered them 4-0. With at least one of Barcelona or Chelsea guaranteed to drop points, a win could see them jump from 17th into the top 10.
Their remaining fixtures – apart from a visit to Galatasaray – are not too daunting either.
Atletico remaining fixtures: PSV (A), Galatasaray (A), Bodo/Glimt (H)
Inter remaining fixtures: Liverpool (H), Arsenal (H), Borussia Dortmund (A)
Napoli vs Qarabag (Tuesday 8pm GMT/3pm ET)
Qarabag, who had the 12th-toughest fixture list, according to Opta’s ratings, have taken the Champions League by surprise.
Wins at Benfica and in Azerbaijan against Copenhagen saw their league-phase elimination chances drop from 87 to 25 per cent. Following the draw with Chelsea, their projected points tally is up to 11, nearly double the six before matchweek one.
Napoli have seen their knockout play-off chances rise to 76 per cent despite picking up just four points from four matches. Losing to Manchester City was perhaps expected but the 6-2 loss to PSV, who are 18th, will sting.
A win in this game with Benfica and Copenhagen up next should get Antonio Conte’s side back on their way.
Napoli remaining fixtures: Benfica (A), Copenhagen (H), Chelsea (H)
Qarabag remaining fixtures: Ajax (H), Eintracht Frankfurt (H), Liverpool (A)
