VanEck Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck

Please note that VanEck has exposure to bitcoin.

Key takeaways

• Long-term whales are still holding, with 5+ year coins continuing to grow.
• Selling is concentrated in mid-cycle holders, not the oldest wallets.
• Futures markets look washed out, with funding and open interest at oversold levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) Investors are Afraid

Source: Glassnode as of 11/13/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

ETP Outflows Drive Early Weakness

The last 30 days of price action have been particularly unkind to HOLDers with BTC down -13% on highly motivated selling. Since October 10, 2025, BTC ETP balances have bled 49.3K BTC, around -2% of total AUM, as the weak hands who bought near the price peak capitulated amid rate cut uncertainty and wobbles in the AI narrative. More concerning, many are pointing the finger at early BTC whales for the price weakness. For example, a “Satoshi Era” Whale sold $1.5B of BTC, his entire wallet, the week of November 14, 2025. Many suppose that tenured whales often telegraph long-term moves in BTC by buying or selling BTC at pivotal junctures. As a result, the crypto community has become bearish, as indicated by the fear/greed index hitting its lowest level since March 2025 at the beginning of the tariff tantrum.

Smaller Whales Accumulate Over 1-2 Years as Largest Whales Distribute; Recent Net Change is Flat

Whales Positions Lower Long-Term, Higher Short Term

 
100-1K (%)
1K-10K (%)
10K-100K (%)
above 100K (%)
Total Whale Holdings (%)

30 Day Change
-1
0
3
1
0

60 Day Change
2
-3
3
-2
0

90 Day Change
3
-3
1
1
1

180 Day Change
9
1
-6
-2
1

1 Year Change
23
-3
-11
-8
3

2 Year Change
31
-5
-9
-4
6

Source: Glassnode as of 11/13/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

Rather than assuming recent weakness stems from large holder selling, it helps to examine the full distribution of flows across cohorts. The onchain picture shows a more nuanced rotation than simple “whale dumping.” If we look at holdings of whales with more than 1,000 BTC, we can see clearly that they have been reducing their BTC exposure since November 2023. In fact, whales with 10K-100K BTC have reduced their supply by -6% and -11% over the last 6 months and 12 months. This supply has been absorbed by “minnows” holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. This smaller class of investors has increased holdings +9% and +23% over the past 6 months and 12 months, respectively. For context, BTC itself is up ~170% over the last two years.

Bitcoin Futures (BTC) Open Interest +6% in November

Source: Glassnode as of 11/13/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

Short-Term Whales Flip to Net Buyers

Short-term data tells a different story: some whale cohorts have been accumulating. The 10K–100K BTC group has increased holdings by about +3%, +2.5%, and +84 bps over the last 30, 60, and 90 days. This likely reflects the tariff-driven selloff and subsequent liquidations, which cut BTC futures open interest by about 19% in 12 hours and pushed the price lower by more than 20%.

Oldest BTC Whales Are Holding While Mid-Cycle Traders Sell

 
Last Active 6m-2y
Last Active 3y-5y
Last Active 5y-10y
Last Active >10y

30 Day Change
-202,674
-272,996
82,500
9,608

180 Day Change
705,516
-592,745
20,079
-22,381

1 Year Change
176,954
-855,050
-113,033
39,374

2 Year Change
204,266
-1,706,293
-92,959
382,379

Source: Glassnode as of 11/13/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

Mid-Cycle Holders Are the Real Sellers

However, simply analyzing “whale data” by holder size provides an incomplete picture. This view overlooks the rotation of aged, experienced whales transferring their coins to newer, greenhorn holders. To deepen our understanding, we examine Bitcoin balances by “last actively moved,” which indicates the time elapsed since the token was last transferred. The implication of a transfer is that the tokens were likely sold to different holders.

Over the past 30 days, selling pressure has been concentrated in the

Among the older cohort, those whose coins last moved >5 years ago, token turnover remains low relative to other groups. In contrast, the largest churn has occurred among tokens last moved 3–5 yrs ago, a band that has consistently declined across each study period. Over the past two years, supply in this tranche has dropped by 32% as coins were sent to new addresses. Given that many of these tokens were likely accumulated during the doldrums of the previous Bitcoin cycle, their holders appear to be opportunistic cycle traders rather than long-term investors.

Meanwhile, tokens last moved >5 yrs ago have seen a net increase of +278K BTC compared to two years ago. This gain reflects younger coins aging into the 5+ yr category rather than renewed accumulation, yet it still indicates continued conviction among long-term whales. While further granularity could yield additional insights, the overarching trend remains encouraging: the longest-term holders continue to accumulate and hold.

BTC Futures Basis at Lowest Levels Since Fall 2023

Source: Glassnode as of 11/13/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

Futures Markets Show a Speculation Reset

One of the best measures of speculation is the annualized basis costs paid by traders willing to be long Bitcoin perpetual futures (perps). Because perps never settle, perp prices are brought in line with spot prices by means of an interest rate charged to one counterparty of the trade. If the perp’s price is above the spot price, the long side of the trade must pay the short side an interest rate relative to the magnitude of the spot/perp price difference. Because crypto has asymmetric upside, perp basis is almost always positive.

During periods of lower demand for long crypto like BTC, the basis collapses. Recently, we saw a dramatic collapse in open interest for Bitcoin perps, down -20% in BTC terms since October 9, 2025, and -32% in USD terms. This partly explains the substantial collapse in funding rates. Of course, if people were bullish about BTC, this rate would quickly climb.

In the past, long-term downturns in BTC price were often preceded by blow-off tops of speculation where perp funding averaged 40% on some days. We have not seen that sort of acceleration of funding since March 2024. However, to cloud the picture a bit, it is important to remember that projects like Ethena as well as sophisticated traders have accumulated massive basis positions of long spot crypto and short perps. Ethena alone had reached TVL of $14B in October 2025, and it has since seen its TVL collapse to $8.3B. These large figures of basis trades may artificially depress funding rates, making the indicator no longer effective.

That caveat noted, funding rate collapses of the magnitude we have just witnessed are typically associated with oversold conditions. This is particularly true when we see a concurrent collapse in perps open interest of the ferocity that recently transpired. Additionally, NUPL, or Net Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio, has hit tactically oversold levels that match those seen during the Tariff Tantrum in Spring 2025 and the Yen implosion in August 2024. Armed with this data, investors can proceed more tactically bullish after a month of very dramatic selling, in our opinion.

Bitcoin Chain Check Monthly Dashboard and Highlights

Bitcoin Price
$105,666
-8
40
97.2

Daily Active Addresses
695,396
-5
-11
59.8

Daily New Addresses
306,541
-2
-6
56.0

Daily Transactions
460,192
-3
-22
92.6

Daily Inscriptions
112,631
123
220
63.9

Total Transfer Volume (USD)
$81,723,087,403
-6
41
91.2

% Supply Active, last 180 days
27%
7
20
25.6

% Supply Dormant for 3+ Years
43%
-0.00481946
-8
89.1

Avg Fees (USD)
$308,918.13
-20
-77
57.6

Avg Fees (BTC)
2.94
-13
-83
5.4

Percent of BTC Addresses in profit
88%
-0.070263733
-10
71.0

Unrealized profit/loss ratio
47%
-11
-15
63.3

ASIC Global Power Consumption (GWh)
214
4
52
99.6

Total Daily BTC Miner Revenues (USD)
$48,282,902
-9
31
92.3

Total Crypto Equities’ Market Cap* (USD) (MM)
$311,767,427,455
-9
77
95.1

Transfer volume from Miners to Exchanges (USD)
$13,431,933
-24
-14
91.3

Bitcoin Dominance
59%
2
1
78.8

Bitcoin Futures Annualized Basis
5%
-40
-54
32.2

Mining Difficulty (T)
653
3
55
99.6

1 30 day change & 365 day change are relative to the 30-day avg, not absolute.

Source: Glassnode as of 11/13/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

Links to third party websites are provided as a convenience and the inclusion of such links does not imply any endorsement, approval, investigation, verification or monitoring by us of any content or information contained within or accessible from the linked sites. By clicking on the link to a non-VanEck webpage, you acknowledge that you are entering a third-party website subject to its own terms and conditions. VanEck disclaims responsibility for content, legality of access or suitability of the third-party websites.