The Champions League opening round is officially past the halfway mark with Opta’s supercomputer boldly predicting Arsenal to lift their first trophy.
European glory—even the tournament itself in recent history—has eluded the Gunners. Yet, since returning in 2023–24 under Mikel Arteta they have shown consistent progress in the competition. Winning the Champions League is easier said than done, but Arsenal’s strong start to the season has seemingly played a part in projecting them as winners.
There are four unbeaten teams remaining in the league phase: Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Inter Milan and Manchester City. The top eight teams in the league phase advance directly to the round of 16 while the subsequent 16 qualified sides will compete in a two-legged playoff round.
Four teams from Europe’s top five leagues—Marseille, Juventus, Athletic Club and Villarreal—are in the elimination zone.
Here’s the full breakdown of how Opta’s supercomputer sees the Champions League playing out halfway through the league phase.
Arsenal are flying high this season in England and Europe. / James Gill/Danehouse/Getty Images
Team
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Final
Winner
Arsenal
81%
57.7%
38.6%
23.1%
Bayern Munich
75.6%
49.2%
29%
15.7%
Man City
72%
44.8%
25.6%
14.2%
PSG
63.7%
35.7%
18.7%
9.2%
Liverpool
60%
31.9%
15.7%
7.4%
Real Madrid
55.3%
27.2%
12.6%
6%
Barcelona
51.4%
27%
13.1%
5.9%
Chelsea
44.7%
22.2%
10.3%
4.9%
Inter Milan
50%
21.2%
8.4%
3.1%
Newcastle
41.2%
18%
7.6%
3.1%
The supercomputer is backing Arsenal to win their first Champions League crown. The Gunners were eliminated in the semifinals last season by eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain. Surprisingly, the reigning champions are only given a 9.2% chance of repeating.
If Arsenal do make history and lift their first European Cup, they would be the second consecutive team to do so after PSG broke their duck.
Bayern Munich are the next likeliest winners based on projections at 15.8%. The Bavarian giants travel to north London this week to face Arsenal in what could be a preview of the final. Though, Bayern have historically dominated Arsenal in Europe.
Manchester City round out the top three with a 14.2% chance of lifting their second Champions League.
Liverpool and Real Madrid are favoured to make the last eight, though their chances of adding to their European pedigrees stand at a measly 7.4% and 6% respectively. Their early season struggles likely play a part in the supercomputer’s reasoning.
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Real Madrid went back-to-back-to-back from 2016 to 2018. / VI Images/Getty Images
PSG are by no means written off despite their projections. Though, history is not on their side when it comes to repeating as champions.
The last team to win back-to-back Champions League tournaments was Real Madrid between 2016 and 2018. Former Los Blancos boss Zinedine Zidane oversaw one of the most successful periods in club history, winning three straight titles.
Since then, there’s yet to be a repeat winner with Madrid capturing two more titles during that span.
Champions League Winners Since Real Madrid Three-Peat
Season
Winner
2018–19
Liverpool
2019–20
Bayern Munich
2020–21
Chelsea
2021–22
Real Madrid
2022–23
Manchester City
2023–24
Real Madrid
2024–25
Paris Saint-Germain
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