Hawks vs Wizards: Game Preview, Injury Report, Projected Starting Lineup for Tonight’s Matchup
There is very little that has remained consistent in the NBA over the past few seasons. Big trades and smart draft picks mean that teams often drag themselves out of holes rather quickly and rebuild themselves from the lottery odds to the playoffs quicker than ever before.
The Washington Wizards are consistent for all the wrong reasons. Once again, they’ve started the year off at the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a 1-15 record. They haven’t won a game since October 24th – more than a month ago. Yet, the Hawks can’t afford to just coast through this one. The Bulls are in a similar tier to the Hawks and they just escaped with a win against Washington, 121-120. This is a team that is firmly destined for the lottery and they have very little to lose, which makes them dangerous if Atlanta doesn’t prepare accordingly. Furthermore, today’s game is an NBA Cup matchup and the Wizards could be trying to play spoiler in the tournament.
Fortunately, the Hawks have been playing solid basketball as of late. They blew the Pistons out by 17 points and then turned in a clutch performance to get a narrow win over the Charlotte Hornets, 113-110. Jalen Johnson looks solidified as an All-Star candidate and his latest performance was no less impressive. He stuffed the stat sheet with 28 points, 11 assists and eight rebounds on zero turnovers. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is also playing the best basketball of his career, averaging a career-high 19.3 points on 59.8 TS% while Dyson Daniels has grown tremendously as a passer. The Hawks have two capable starting centers in Kristaps Porzingis and Onyeka Okongwu, as well as legitimate depth pieces in Mo Gueye and Vit Krejci. It’s entirely possible that Atlanta just out-talents the Wizards without really having to dig deep in order to get a win. However, that isn’t a guarantee, especially after a close game with the similarly-dismal Hornets.
By the Numbers
Nov 15, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson (1) shoots the ball against Washington Wizards forward Kyshawn George (18) during the fourth quarter at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images | Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images
The Hawks’ offense has been solidly average thus far despite missing their best playmaker. They’re 17th in points, 7th in FG%, 10th in 3P%, 19th in FT%, 27th in rebounds (27th in OREB), 3rd in assists and 13th in turnovers per game. They’re 16th in offensive rating on the year, so the advanced metrics support the idea that they’ll be able to match up with most teams on that end.
Atlanta’s defense is a bit reliant on turnover plays, but they’ve still been among the better units around the NBA. On a per-game basis, the Hawks rank 10th in points allowed, 11th in FG% allowed, 7th in 3P% allowed, 24th in rebounds allowed, 5th in steals and 8th in blocks. They’re 13th in defensive rating on the year, which puts them in an above-average tier.
The Wizards’ offense is severely lacking, but they do shoot the ball well from deep. They’re 23rd in points, 21st in FG%, 9th in 3P%, 26th in FT%, 20th in rebounds (20th in OREB), 21st in assists and 29th in turnovers per game. This is a team that regularly makes mistakes on offense that can be exploited.
Despite having a defensive anchor in Alex Sarr, Washington’s defense is still struggling to find its way. They’re 30th in points allowed, 23rd in FG% allowed, 24th in 3P% allowed, 30th in rebounds allowed, 28th in steals and 7th in blocks. Once again, Atlanta will be going up against a fairly weak defense, so it is reasonable to expect that the Hawks will have plenty of opportunities to control the game.
Three Reasons Atlanta Can Win This Game
Oct 30, 2024; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Wizards center Jonas Valanciunas (17) drives to the basket as Atlanta Hawks forward Onyeka Okongwu (17) defends in the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
There are a lot of ways that bad teams stay bad – one of the most common is turnovers. The Wizards are second-to-last in turnovers and 26th in team TOV%. Their AST/TO ratio is also 26th, indicating that they are relatively easy to strip the ball from. It’s part of the reason why Washington leads the league in points conceded off of TOs. This has to be a high-steal game from at least one of Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Very few matchips are going to be as enticing as this one and the Hawks should be able to get some easy points purely from converting steals into buckets.
Speaking of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, his clutch heroics against Charlotte likely won them the game. He finished with 23 points, five rebounds and four assists. However, his biggest play came in the fourth quarter. NAW had the game-winning steal of Kon Knueppel to seal Atlanta’s victory and he’ll need to keep it going against the Wizards. He’ll have interesting matchups against either McCollum or Coulibaly. McCollum is shooting the third-worst TS% of his career (53.6%), but the Wizards’ offense is 9.2 points per possession better when he’s on the court. That’s likely due to his low TOV% of 8.5% and his consistently strong shooting numbers. Coulibaly is far more of a problem on offense. He’s shooting a putrid 31% from deep and hasn’t made an entire midrange shot the entire season while also shooting only 67% at the rim. It’ll be interesting to see who NAW matches up with tonight.
It’d be impossible to leave Jalen Johnson off a list describing reasons why the Hawks might win and he’s done nothing to suggest that his performance thus far might be a fluke. He’s taken on the mantle of lead playmaker and had arguably his best passing game of the season against Charlotte with 11 assists on zero turnovers. His AST% of 30.8% is in the 97th percentile among all wings and he’s finishing a career-best 75% of his shots at the rim. Even if teams are able to pack the paint against Johnson, he’s shooting a career-best 41.5% from deep on 3.1 attempts a game. It’s a stretch to say that he’s a lights-out shooter, but he’s capable of keeping the defense honest and burning them if they don’t respect his range. It’ll be intriguing to see how Johnson fares when going against Kyshawn George tonight. It’s unlikely that the Wizards will exclusively stick George on him, but the Wizards forward has actually been fairly solid on defense and battled through a ton of tough matchups. He has an elite BLK% of 1.4% among all wings and the defense gives up 5 points less per possession when George is on the floor.
Three Reasons Atlanta Might Lose This Game
Feb 8, 2025; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Wizards forward Corey Kispert (24) drives past Atlanta Hawks forward Zaccharie Risacher (10) during the second half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images | Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images
Even though their offense has tons of issues, the Wizards have some three-point variance to them. They’re among the top ten in 3P% for a reason – players like Tre Johnson, Corey Kispert, McCollum and George have all shot the ball well to begin the season. While George is questionable and Johnson is out, they still have enough shooters to burn the Hawks’ defense if they get lazy in their close-outs. Atlanta did a good job of clamping down on the Hornets’ shooting from deep, but they let Knueppel hit seven of his eleven attempts from deep. They can probably afford to let one of Washington’s shooters get hot, but they can’t be lackadasical when clamping down on the rest.
Similarly, Washington’s defense would be completely hopeless if not for having a reliable shot-blocker at the center spot. Alex Sarr did not have the best rookie season, but he looks like a much better player in his sophomore season. He is currently averaging 18.1 points and 8.4 rebounds on 56.4 TS% and he’s also getting a whopping 2 blocks per game. Sarr’s impact has been most acutely felt on offense since they’re 6.7 points better on offense with him on the court while being a net-neutral in his defensive minutes. However, it doesn’t illustrate how poor the defensive talent around him is. Sarr’s shot-blocking and ability to get hot make him a dangerous matchup for the Hawks.
It is also true that the Hawks could lose this game by beating themselves. Their inconsistency on defense didn’t matter much against the Hornets and it may not matter again versus the Wizards. They gave up a 16-2 run against a vastly inferior Charlotte offense and only managed to get back into the game due to a long run of their own. This is an excellent opportunity to step on a team’s neck and not let up until the game is out of reach. If they can’t do that, they invite the possibility of embarassment.
Injury Report
Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young is out while Luke Kennard is questionable.
Washington Wizards: Marvin Bagley III and Kyshawn George are both questionable while Tre Johnson is out.
How to Watch
Here is how you can watch tonight’s game:
Tip-off time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time
Location: Capital One Arena, Washington DC
Where to Watch: FanDuel Sports Network
Projected Starting Lineups
Hawks
G – Dyson Daniels
G – Nickeil Alexander-Walker
F – Zaccharie Risacher
F – Jalen Johnson
C – Kristaps Porzingis
Wizards
G – CJ McCollum
G – Bilal Coulibaly
F – Kyshawn George
F – Corey Kispert
C – Alex Sarr
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