Norris on the brink of F1 history; rules twist that could change the championship: Burning Qs

One McLaren driver can win the championship this weekend, but it isn’t Oscar Piastri.

Lando Norris stands on the brink of history. On Sunday he has the chance to become the 35th driver to win a Formula 1 world title.

It’s a remarkable turn of events for the Englishman, who looked down and out of the hunt just eight races ago, when a power unit problem put him 34 points behind his title-leading teammate.

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But Piastri’s decline has also been surprisingly rapid. What started as a form slump has become a crisis of circumstance and misfortune that has prevented him from regaining the momentum.

This weekend he has one last chance to keep his title hopes alive.

One big weekend could reset expectations. A poor one, however, will end them.’

PIT TALK PODCAST: McLaren left Las Vegas with no points after having both cars disqualified for running illegally low. With winner Max Verstappen now just 24 points behind Lando Norris is the drivers title at risk this weekend in Qatar?

CAN PIASTRI SEIZE HIS LAST CHANCE?

Paradoxically, Piastri was a beneficiary from his own disqualification in Las Vegas last weekend. What would have been a 30-point deficit has been shrunk back to 24 points, just under a clear race victory.

It’s small but precious breathing room for his last bid to win the title.

If Norris wins the grand prix, it’s over. If Piastri is outscored by Norris by two points or more, he’s out.

Outscore Norris over the weekend by any amount, however, and the championship goes to the finale in Abu Dhabi.

“Things definitely can still go my way, but not everything is within my control,” he said. “Obviously I need to be there and put myself in the best position so that if things happen, I can capitalise.

“That’s all I can try and do, really. I’ll just try and have good pace, try and put myself in a good position and see what unfolds.”

That would require a turnaround from his current run of form that’s seen him off the podium at the last six grands prix.

But Piastri says that while the results have been poor, his pace has been underrated, particularly over the last two rounds in Brazil and Las Vegas.

“I think Austin and Mexico were very much a similar problem and similar kinds of things going wrong,” he said, per Formula Rapida.

“Brazil, honestly, was not a bad weekend from a pace point of view. The crash I had in the sprint meant that we couldn’t get the car in quite the window we had it in given all the repairs we had to do and the short time frame

“When you factor in some of the things that happened that weekend, the pace was actually quite good, so I don’t think it’s been an ongoing problem.”

Even Vegas, notwithstanding he’d have been disqualified anyway, would have looked better had it not been for yellow flags in Q3 preventing him from completing his final lap.

“The last couple of weekends I think things have looked a lot better internally in terms of how the pace has looked,” he said. “It’s more been mistakes and not being consistent rather than lacking performance.

“I think it’s more about trying to be a bit more consistent and lock in the performance that we’ve been able to get out of the car in the first part of the season and the last couple of races as well. If we can do that, then we should be in good shape.”

Even so, there’s no doubt Piastri must perform at his highest level, be the best version of himself this year, to try to swing the season in his favour.

“A hunter has to be ruthless,” he said. “I’ll try my best.

“Naturally if you do that, things start to look good for you and it puts other people under pressure, but you need to go out there and perform.”

Piastri’s family cheering him on | 02:58

WILL NORRIS SEAL THE DEAL?

Norris’s lead may have been whittled down slightly by his disqualification — and Verstappen might suddenly be back in the mix — but he still gets his first championship chance this weekend.

The title permutations are complicated slightly by the sprint — though mercifully, for his sake, Norris can’t win the title on Saturday — but there are some criteria he must meet to claim the title in Sunday’s grand prix.

Norris will win the title this weekend if:

(a) he finishes seventh or higher in the sprint and wins the grand prix;

(b) he scores in both the sprint and the grand prix and finishes ahead of both Verstappen and Piastri each time; or

(c) he leads by 26 points or more with any combination of results.

He cannot win it if Verstappen or Piastri wins the grand prix, if he finishes behind both of them in the sprint and the grand prix or if he fails to score.

“I’m excited for all of it,” he said. “I’ve never been in this situation before, but I’m excited. I think it’s exciting for everyone.

“I think I certainly would’ve liked to have had the 30-point gap instead of the 24 to whoever it is.

“I’ll focus on trying to get a good quali and have a good race and just take it one step at a time. Of course the earlier I can do it, the better, but at the same time that doesn’t change how I do anything. I just need to try and win, as simple as that.

“The goal is to win both races, and that’s what we’re aiming to do.”

Every driver on the precipice of this sort of history must face up to the pressure of being within reach of their dream. Handling it is the final hurdle of a championship campaign.

Norris has been open all year about his mental trials and tribulations — he’s publicly admonished himself when he’s done badly, and recently he’s been revelling in his sustained good form.

Ahead of what could be his coronation weekend, he said he was trying to avoid contemplating his title chance.

“I’m just not thinking of it — quite simple,” he said. “I certainly know — of course everyone’s talking about it.

“There are a lot more eyes, there’s a lot more pressure, people talk more crap.

“There’s expectation, but I feel like I’m already pretty used to it, and nothing changes.

“I’ll just go out and try and drive fast. It’s as simple as I can make it for myself.

“But really just not think of it — treat it as if there’s 10 more races and I need to just win. That’s what I’ll try and do.”

Explaining the McLaren disqualification | 04:57

WILL McLAREN BE AFFECTED BY DOUBLE DSQ?

Norris’s first championship chance takes place in the shadow of McLaren’s double disqualification in Las Vegas last weekend, where both cars were found to have worn down the skid blocks in the plank — the parts of the car that control ride height — beyond what’s allowed in the rules.

There have since been reports that McLaren has been on the limit for plank wear at previous rounds, including in Brazil, where Norris won both the sprint and the race from pole.

It’s led to some speculation that McLaren is pushing harder than it otherwise would at this stage of the season in a bid to shut Verstappen out of the title picture.

Red Bull Racing got on a roll shortly after the mid-season break thanks in part to its steady stream of upgrades. McLaren switched off development for this year’s car long ago and therefore has had its ability to respond limited.

If that’s true, it inevitably leads to questions about where McLaren will sit in the competitive order for the final two rounds of the year and especially in Qatar this weekend.

McLaren, however, denies that there’ll be any knock-on effect from its Vegas disqualification.

In a length explanation ahead of this weekend’s race, McLaren principal Andrea Stella said that the problems of last weekend weren’t related to an excess of aggression but rather a fundamental set-up problem.

“The specific cause that led to the situation was the unexpected occurrence of extensive porpoising,” he said, referring to the aerodynamic phenomenon that causes a car to bounce against the ground.

“Based on the data we had acquired in practice, we do not believe we took excessive risks in terms of ride height.

“We also added a safety margin for qualifying and the race compared to practice in terms of clearance to the ground. However, the safety margin was negated by the unexpected onset of the large vertical oscillations, which caused the car to touch the ground.”

In other words, the cars weren’t running too low. The damage was done by the floor being slammed into the track surface too often and too violently.

In fact Norris has alluded to the problem being that the team left too much margin after the disrupted practice sessions, putting the car outside its normal operating window and triggering the bouncing.

Given the unique nature of the Vegas track — cold, bumpy, long straights and slow corners — Stella isn’t anticipating a repeat of last week’s set-up problem.

“What happened in Vegas was due to an anomaly in the behaviour of the car, rather than it being the outcome of an excessive or unreasonable chase of performance,” he said.

Nothing to worry about, then, he says — but there’ll be a spotlight on McLaren this weekend for any sign of underperformance as the title battle reaches its climax.

Kai Allen seconds from disaster | 00:54

WILL PIRELLI’S TYRE CALL CHANGE THE MOMENTUM?

An unusual quirk for this weekend is Pirelli mandating a maximum number of laps for each set of tyres in response to concerns raised by last year’s race.

At most circuits the limiting factor with tyres is overheating, which is a chemical process. The tyres lose performance as they overheat, which eventually triggers a pit stop.

In Qatar, however, the particular combination of tarmac, temperature and average speed means the limiting factor is physical wear rather than temperature. The high lateral load through the corners also increases the risk of structural fatigue.

Last year both Lewis Hamilton and Carlos Sainz suffered tyre failures that Pirelli put down to them having too little tread left at the end of their first stints.

To protect against these factors, Pirelli has declared no set of tyres can be used for more than 25 laps this year. The only laps excluded from the count are those on the formation and cool-down laps.

The race lasts for 57 laps, meaning a minimum of two stops will be required.

Any driver who exceeds the limit will be disqualified.

It’s similar to the 2023 edition of the race, for which Pirelli set a maximum of 18 laps per tyre, though that year the problem was the shape of the kerbs — since replaced — was damaging the tyres. In practice it forced every driver to make three stops.

While the lap limit this year is more generous, we can learn something from 2023.

The maximum stint lengths meant drivers could push harder during the race knowing that they would have to pit before running into any overheating or wear issues.

While each driver will make one fewer stop this year compared to 2023, it will still see the race run at a notably harder pace.

Last year, by way of comparison, almost everyone easily made it to the finish with just one pit stop. Most drivers got 35 laps out of the medium tyre without issue — and their lap times increased through the stint, suggesting that there was no meaningful thermal degradation to manage.

Why is this important?

Managing tyre life is a key challenge in Formula 1, and this year McLaren has been significantly better at it than anyone else. It’s been part of what’s given the team such a big advantage over the field.

But that strength will be neutralised by mandating every driver make two stops this year, allowing them to race as fast as they want without having to worry about tyre life.

If the balance of power between Red Bull Racing and McLaren was already delicately poised, this could be a major boost for Verstappen’s pursuit of a perfect weekend — and it could even bring Mercedes, which was quick here last year, into range.

This season hasn’t been short on late twists, but this could be another turn in the title narrative.