PITTSBURGH — A division that’s been slipping away from the Pittsburgh Steelers for weeks officially changed hands on Sunday. Following the Steelers’ loss to the Chicago Bears and the Baltimore Ravens’ win over the New York Jets, Baltimore and Pittsburgh both sit at 6-5. However, due to tiebreakers, the Ravens lead the AFC North while the Steelers sit in eighth place in the seven-team playoff field.
The wildcard spots are currently occupied by a trio of 7-4 teams: The Los Angeles Chargers (who own a head-to-head tiebreaker on the Steelers), the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills. Meanwhile, the 6-5 Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs are on the Steelers’ heels in the hunt.
So what will it take for Pittsburgh to make the playoffs?
According to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, the Steelers currently have an 18 percent chance to make the postseason, with a 14 percent chance to win the AFC North and a four percent shot at a wildcard. I spent more time than I’ll willing to admit playing around in the simulator. Let’s dig deeper into the scenarios to identify which games are most important, how many more wins the Steelers need to feel comfortable and why Sunday’s game against the Bills is looking like a near must-win.
8-9 by taking care of business in winnable games: >1 percent
The Steelers might only be favored in two more games this season: home on Week 15 against the Miami Dolphins and at the Cleveland Browns in Week 17. Winning only those two almost certainly won’t be enough. The model gives the Steelers less than a one percent chance if they only beat the Browns and the Dolphins.
Different kinds of 9-8: 4 to 21 percent
If the Steelers win three more games this year, their odds vary significantly depending on which opponents they beat. If they take care of business against the Dolphins and Browns and split the season series with the Ravens, the Steelers would have a 21 percent chance to make the playoffs, with a 17 percent chance to win the division and a four percent chance to claim a wildcard spot.
Wins against the Dolphins, Browns and Bills would put the Steelers’ chances at 12 percent, with a two percent chance to win the division and a 10 percent shot as a wildcard team. If their third win comes against the NFC (Lions), their odds are only four percent.
Baltimore factor
The Steelers and Ravens often split the season series. But it’s worth examining what happens if one team wins both meetings, to illustrate how critical those matchups are. If Pittsburgh sweeps the Ravens, the Steelers could lose every other game, finish 8-9 and still have a 53 percent chance to make the playoffs. A sweep of the Ravens, plus any additional win, bumps those odds up to 86 to 88 percent.
On the flip side, if the Steelers get swept by the Ravens, their odds are bleak. If they lose both games to the Ravens but beat the rest of the AFC teams they play (Bills, Dolphins, Browns) to finish 9-8, their chances of making the tournament are still only 12 percent. If the third win comes against the NFC (Lions), it’s even lower at four percent.
Four more wins likely gets them in: 72-90 percent
A 10-7 season should put the Steelers in a pretty good position, no matter how they get those four wins. Worst case, if the Steelers lose both games to the Ravens but win the other four, they’d have a 72 percent chance to make the playoffs.
Wins over the Bills, Dolphins, Browns and Ravens would bump the Steelers’ chances up to 88 percent. That scenario keeps the wildcard and the division in play, as the Steelers would have a 50 percent chance to win the AFC North and a 38 percent chance to earn a wildcard spot.
After this week: 12 to 30 percent
Looking singularly at the next game, if the Steelers beat the Bills, their odds jump to 30 percent. They’d pick up an AFC win, create a cleaner road to 10 wins, and hold a head-to-head tiebreaker against another team vying for a wildcard spot. But if they lose this week, their odds dwindle to 12 percent.
What did we learn?
The Steelers appear headed for a 9-8 or 10-7 season. The difference between those two outcomes is likely the difference between making or missing the playoffs. If the Steelers are going to make the playoffs, their cleanest path is to win against the Bills, Dolphins, Browns and Ravens or by sweeping the Ravens. That makes this week’s game against the Bills virtually a must-win. If they don’t win this week, they either need to sweep the Ravens or get a lot of help.
