CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 2:00 p.m. EST 26 November 2025 $4,176.90 (Basis the February 2026 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Stand Aside
Initial Target Price / Range: $3,800 – $4,400
Initial Timeframe: 26 November 2025 to 5 December 2025
Stop Loss: Not Applicable
Note: CPM has rolled from the December to the February Comex contract for pricing in these Trade Recommendations.
Gold prices rose sharply overnight into this morning, along with silver, platinum, palladium, copper, U.S. equities, and other assets. The Comex February gold contract touched $4,209.00. The increase did not last, and as of this afternoon prices had fallen back, dropping as much as $13 below Tuesday’s Comex close.
Two sets of factors appear to have been behind the move.
1. Financial market attitudes collectively have become more pessimistic about the economy, and consequently have shifted back to having a stronger conviction or expectation of a reduction in the U.S. Federal Funds rate when the FOMC meets 9 – 10 December. According to the CME Fedwatch indicator the market has assigned an 83% probability of a 25-bip December cut as of this morning, up from 30% last week when the market was concerned that sticky inflation and stronger economic conditions might preclude a rate cut.
2. The active December Comex contracts for gold, silver, and palladium have become deliverable, going into an extended holiday weekend in the United States while London and other markets remain open. Shorts were rolling forward.
Additionally, some investors were interested in being long going into the long U.S. weekend.
It does not appear to CPM that this morning’s move was the start of a longer term move back toward $4,400. A more persistent break above $4,200 may trigger some short-term buying, but the uncertainties surrounding economic conditions worldwide may keep that from happening for a while yet.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
