Back in early September, many of us would have been poring over the NFL futures markets, looking at where sportsbooks had positioned each team before the season began.
While not every sportsbook agreed on the betting favorite, it was abundantly clear that four teams – the Eagles, Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs – were the four standout contenders for the Super Bowl.
They were clustered together at the top of the betting markets, and while others, such as the Packers, Lions, and Commanders, were respected, those four were placed out on their own in betting terms.
Of course, things always change once the season gets underway. Some teams tipped to do well will flop, whereas others predicted to have a poor season will surprise.
Yet, this season has felt, at least at times, more unpredictable than others: Few would have expected the Patriots to become the first team to reach 10 wins; even fewer would have put the Ravens down to start the season 1-5, although they have steadied the ship since; At the time of writing, the Rams are favorites with DraftKings NFL futures, well ahead of the “Big 4” contenders we mentioned earlier.
The Colts and Patriots have been big movers
From a betting perspective, it is interesting to see the big movers up and down the markets.
The Rams, as mentioned, have gone in the right direction, going from odds of +2000 to around +400 today (odds subject to change).
The Colts are also massive movers, going from +10000 in early September to +1000 and right among the contenders thanks to a fantastic campaign thus far. The Patriots have gone from +8000 to +1400 at the time of writing.
As for teams moving the other direction, the Ravens and Bills have seen fairly significant shifts downwards in the markets.
Both have gone from odds ranging from +700 to +1200 and 1400+ in places. Neither team is considered out of it yet, but the odds have been adjusted accordingly after convincing starts.
The Chiefs have also slid down the odds slightly. Of those top four contenders at the beginning of the season, the reigning champions, the Eagles, have held their position, albeit they have been leapfrogged by the Rams.
Overall, one of the most eye-catching teams to move down the markets dramatically has been the Commanders, a team that has certainly failed to recapture last season’s magic.
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