American Thanksgiving is viewed as an important marker in the NHL season — in the salary cap era, 77 percent of teams in a playoff position at Thanksgiving go on to qualify in the spring. In 2024, 12 of 16 teams (75 percent) held on to their Thanksgiving playoff spots.
But this season may throw a wrench into that pattern. The Eastern Conference is as tight as ever, with just nine points separating first (the Hurricanes, with 30 points) from last (the Maple Leafs, with 21 points). In the West, there is more distance between the top (Colorado, 37 points) and bottom (St. Louis, Vancouver, Calgary and Nashville, ranging from 20 to 16 points) of the conference. But only eight points are separating second in the conference (Dallas) and 12th (Chicago).
It isn’t worth treating this year’s playoff picture as written in stone. A lot can shuffle after tonight’s 15-game slate, and beyond at this rate. So instead, let’s check the vibes around some of the strongest contenders, surprise teams shaking up the picture and disappointments floating around the playoff bubble.
Playoff contenders
Twenty-two games into the season, the Avalanche have only one regulation loss. With a 16-1-5 record, a league-leading 37 points, and 0.841 points percentage, Colorado is a wagon. With this incredible start, the Avalanche have become the measuring stick for the rest of the league.
Star power leads the way in Colorado. The Avalanche have outscored opponents 37-13 with at least one of (or both) Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar on the ice at five-on-five. Unlike last year, the Avs are still leading the way without their franchise cornerstones on the ice with a 24-20 scoring edge and 60.7 percent xG rate (compared to getting outscored 72-82 and hovering around break-even in xG a season ago). Goaltending’s also been a key part of their success, thanks to Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood giving them a chance to win on most nights.
The Avalanche are a tier above the rest right now, with a 99-plus percentage chance of reaching the postseason. But a few other expected contenders are rising to the top.
In the West, Vegas and Dallas are the strongest competitors behind Colorado.
The Golden Knights have had to deal with a lot of key injuries and absences in the early going. But others have stepped up — the offense is clicking, the power play is dangerous, and Shea Theodore and Brayden McNabb have been excellent in their own zone with league-high plus-6.3 and plus-5.1 Defensive Ratings, respectively. Pair that with the benefit of a weaker Pacific Division and a league-high seven loser points, and Vegas should be a lock for the playoffs.
The same goes for the Stars, who have finally found more consistent five-on-five scoring. Ahead of Tuesday’s matchup in Edmonton, Dallas scored at a rate of 3.10 goals per 60 in 11 games this month, after snailing through most of October. Dallas is one of the deepest teams in the league, but some stellar individual performances have helped lift this team over the last stretch; Jason Robertson has been on a tear, while Miro Heiskanen has been an all-around threat.
In the East, the Hurricanes and Lightning lead the way with at least 90 percent odds of reaching the playoffs.
Carolina’s start was far from perfect, with Andrei Svechnikov and offseason addition Nikolaj Ehlers struggling to put up points early on. A Jaccob Slavin injury has diminished their usual defensive structure and penalty killing. But the Canes have gotten by, and their five-on-five offense has a lot to do with it. The team ranks in the top five in xG generation (3.32 per 60) and scoring (3.03 goals per 60).
The Lightning opened the season even slower than the Canes. Just one month ago, they sat at the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a 2-4-2 record and 0.375 points percentage. Another 11 wins (and some disappointing performances by projected contenders, we’ll get there) helped push the Lightning to the top of the Atlantic Division, despite Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, Brayden Point and Erik Cernak sustaining injuries along the way, and power-play struggles. Tampa Bay’s lead is slim; Detroit, Ottawa, Boston, Montreal and Florida are all within three points of the Lightning. But the star power of their roster (when healthy) and a good supporting cast have helped get them back on track.
Surprises in the playoff picture
While the Senators, Wild, Kings, Devils and Capitals were all expected to stay in the playoff picture after qualifying last year, a handful of teams have emerged against the odds.
In the East, the Red Wings, Islanders, Bruins and Penguins have all exceeded expectations through the first quarter of the season. Pittsburgh’s come back down to Earth with a 3-4-3 record over its last 10, but the Islanders keep trending up in the Metro, boasting a 7-3-0 record in that same stretch.
After spinning their wheels in the fringes of the playoff picture over the last few years, a new general manager, Mathieu Darche, brought a new vision to Long Island. Kicking off a retool rightfully changed expectations for the Islanders. It starts with Matthew Schaefer, whose dynamic play is a must-watch on a nightly basis. Ilya Sorokin, after a shaky start, is so back with 14.6 goals saved above expected in 15 games. And up front, Bo Horvat is leading the way offensively, with help from up and down the lineup.
The Bruins, like the Islanders, are also in the midst of a retool that began when management sold at last year’s trade deadline. Boston’s core players, David Pastrnak, Jeremy Swayman and Charlie McAvoy, have pushed them higher in the standings than anticipated, along with Morgan Geekie, Nikita Zadorov and new coach Marco Sturm. But whether the Bruins (and Islanders) maintain their standings in the top eight in the East depends on two things: Whether expected contenders can get it together and knock these teams out of the way and management’s commitment to continuing the retooling process. The Islanders could move pending free agents Anders Lee, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Casey Cizikas, among others. Boston doesn’t have as many rental players to flip, but it could continue what was started last spring to keep the big picture in mind.
Granted, this could all change on a dime, considering how close the Atlantic Division is, the Red Wings’ current second-place standing is a real feat. The team has been poised to take the next step for some time, but has continued to fall short of the postseason. Underwhelming deadlines and offseasons have only added to the problem. This season has been far from perfect, but the Red Wings’ core players, Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, have fueled their move up the standings. The question is whether those players can keep this up without support, or if management can find reinforcements.
In the West, the Kraken and Sharks are off to better-than-expected starts. Seattle came into the season with a 12 percent chance of making the playoffs and now sits second in the Pacific with 28 points. The Sharks initially had a six percent chance of reaching the postseason, and are only two points out of a wild-card seed.
Despite stronger starts than expected, it hasn’t moved the needle enough in their playoff projections. The Kraken are here thanks to strong goaltending, with a collective 0.909 save percentage in all situations that ranks third in the league, and 10 overtime appearances. The Sharks’ young guns, Macklin Celebrini, William Eklund and Yaroslav Askarov are some of the keys behind San Jose’s progression, too. But neither one of these situations feels sustainable, yet.
And that’s what separates the Ducks from those Western Conference surprise teams. The Ducks have a bit more oomph behind their rise. Anaheim is first in the Pacific and third in the West, with a 14-7-1 record and 29 points.
The Ducks’ defense recovered from a really challenging start, but it still has room for improvement. The goaltending, led by Lukáš Dostál, has covered up a lot of those lapses with 11 quality starts in 17 appearances. And that contributes to the real story behind Anaheim’s success: player progression. Leo Carlsson is developing into a dominant all-around center, while Cutter Gauthier has taken offensive strides. Their development has moved Troy Terry into a more fitting position as a productive top-six winger after years of playing above his depth in a chaotic situation.
With teams such as the Golden Knights and the Oilers in the division, the Ducks could have some trouble holding onto first place. But this team has boosted its playoff odds from 25 to 65 percent.
Disappointments
There really isn’t anything shocking about the Flames or Predators sitting in the basement of the standings. The Maple Leafs falling to last in the East, however, is much more surprising and seriously disappointing. While there is only a seven-point gap between Toronto and Tampa Bay, some concerning trends are spelling trouble for the projected contender.
And the Leafs aren’t the only expected contender falling short.
In the West, Edmonton and Winnipeg have struggled this season. Injuries are a big part of the conversation, especially for the Jets, who had to start the year without two defensive stalwarts in Adam Lowry and Dylan Samberg, plus Cole Perfetti. And that likely contributed to some really suspect underlying numbers throughout October. A high shooting percentage and strong goaltending helped the Jets navigate through the month, with a second-place standing in the Central Division. Since Halloween, the team has slipped out of the playoff picture and is three points behind Utah for a wild-card spot. As much as the defense has stabilized, the Jets aren’t generating enough offense. And now comes the real test to find goal support, without Connor Hellebuyck as the great equalizer in net for the next few weeks.
In Edmonton, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl aren’t up to their usual game-breaking standards. But this team has had to navigate a lot of injuries and a ton of time on the road (16 of 24 games). Zach Hyman is back, while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jake Walman and Kasperi Kapanen are all expected to return soon. That could help Edmonton get out of its early-season funk, which has become all too familiar over its last few seasons. While there isn’t a ton of concern there just yet, even if the team rebounds, the question will remain whether the Oilers have enough strength up and down the lineup, and most importantly, in net.
Speaking of starting with key injuries, the reigning champs know a thing or two about that. The Panthers have unsurprisingly struggled without two elite forwards, Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk. That has exposed players such as Sam Bennett, who has had to fill a role above his depth. As much as Sam Reinhart, Brad Marchand and Gustav Forsling are leading the way in Florida, the supporting cast behind them is also short-handed. And Sergei Bobrovsky hasn’t been at his best either. So there is some reason to worry here, too. But the Panthers aren’t that far out of the playoff picture, and have help on the way with Tkachuk expected to return in December.
A few weeks ago, the Rangers looked poised to return to the playoff picture. And then the season started, and the team forgot how to score at home. As solid as New York was on the road, even that has become a problem lately. So while Adam Fox and Vladislav Gavrikov are thriving in big minutes on defense, the rest of the team is falling short of expectations — and it’s showing in the standings with a middling 11-11-2 record. The roster strength is a weakness, and so is the sum of its parts — and that’s going to be tested over the next couple of weeks with all five of the projected contenders on the schedule.
Like every other disappointing team, the Leafs have had their share of injuries this season. Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, Nicolas Roy, Chris Tanev, Brandon Carlo and Anthony Stolarz are all sidelined at the moment. But this team had two-way problems before falling this short-handed. For all of his playoff shortcomings, this looks like a team that didn’t adequately replace a 100-point producer who contributed in all situations. Even when Mitch Marner was in Toronto, though, the team still had depth scoring problems. And that’s only exacerbated when top-sixers such as Matthews and Knies aren’t playing up to expectations. Defense and the penalty kill have become weaknesses in Toronto, and the team’s lack of speed has been exposed as well.
As much as these teams have disappointed early on, there is still a path for most to return to the postseason. There are three-quarters of the season to disprove the Thanksgiving theory.
— Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones, Dom Luszczyszyn and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers
