As we barrel further into the NHL’s 2025-26 campaign, the league’s potential post-season picture is coming into focus.
It’s still early — absurdly early. Most clubs head into this weekend with roughly 60 games left to play. Still, history suggests this early stretch can be oddly indicative of how the standings might shake out by the year’s end.
More specifically, by this point in the season — about 20-25 games in, which tends to fall around U.S. Thanksgiving — the standings start to separate into contenders and pretenders. Each year, the majority of clubs that sit outside a post-season spot by this point in the campaign end up stuck there by the time Game 82 rolls around.
Case in point: Of the 16 teams that sat outside a post-season spot at this point last year, only four made it back into the mix by the end of the campaign (the Ottawa Senators, Montreal Canadiens, Edmonton Oilers, and St. Louis Blues). One year earlier, only three clubs that’d sat outside the playoffs in late November found a way back in by the year’s end (the New York Islanders, Nashville Predators and Oilers). A year before that, it was the same story, with only three clubs getting back (the Florida Panthers, Minnesota Wild and, once again, the Oilers).
There are simply too many teams around the league who can earn a win on any given night, who can throw a wet blanket on a momentum-building win streak. For clubs who dig themselves a hefty hole in October and November, the chances of closing the gap from December on, of stringing together a run that launches them back up the standings, seem slim.
And yet, 2025-26 has served up a bit of a plot twist. While the Western Conference seems to be following the same type of pattern we’ve seen in years past, the East seems far more difficult to predict, given that much of the conference sits mashed together with roughly the same number of points. That being the case, let’s check in on each conference’s playoff bubble at the U.S. Thanksgiving benchmark to get a sense of who might still be there come April.
As it currently stands, Los Angeles and Utah hold the West’s two wild-card spots, with 28 and 27 points, respectively. Behind them, four clubs sit within a handful of points: Chicago, San Jose and Edmonton, all at 25 points; and Winnipeg, a hair behind with 24.
All four of those bubble clubs find themselves in an interesting moment this season. Chicago and San Jose seem to finally be building towards post-season relevancy, thriving on the back of breakout efforts from young talismans Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini. The Oilers, coming off back-to-back Cup Final appearances, have stumbled out of the gates, but surely expect another deep run. And the Jets are similarly navigating a slow start, fresh off a Presidents’ Trophy-winning 2024-25 season.
History suggests all four making it back into the mix is unlikely. So, who wins out and claws their way up the ladder — the young up-and-comers or the proven vets?
The difficulty of the path ahead figures to have some impact on how it all shakes out. San Jose, for example, has the most favourable remaining schedule of any club in the league, according to Tankathon, which calculates each club’s strength of schedule by combining the points percentage of their remaining opponents.
Edmonton’s not far behind the Sharks in terms of a favourable path forward, and Chicago ranks in the middle of the pack. On the other hand, Winnipeg’s remaining schedule is among the toughest of any club in in the West.
For the two clubs above that group, the pair currently sitting in wild-card slots, the path ahead seems to favour the vets. The Kings, who’ve earned a playoff spot in each of the past four years and seem a good bet to wind up there again, have one of the most favourable paths forward in terms of the strength of their remaining schedule. While Utah, aiming to earn its first playoff berth in its new city, are up among the Western clubs with the toughest schedules to trudge through.
Rounding out the Western standings, the four basement-dwellers — Vancouver (22 points), St. Louis (21), Nashville (19) and Calgary (18) — seem to be in tough to find a path back. The gap that’s already opened up above them seems hefty, the clubs between them and a playoff spot have plenty of talent spread among their rosters, and none of these four enter December with the kind of momentum that suggests a surge is coming.
It’s a different story out East. While four clubs in the West sit within a handful of a wild-card spot, in the East, the majority of the conference is arguably still in the mix.
The New York Islanders sit in the first wild-card spot with 28 points, while the Pittsburgh Penguins are holding down the second with 27. Behind the Pens, three other clubs sit with 27 points as well (the Montreal Canadiens, Philadelphia Flyers and Detroit Red Wings), two more sit just one point back (the Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Rangers). And behind them? The two-time Cup champs, at 25 points, are just a pair off the wild-card clubs.
Zoom out further and, in all, 11 of the 16 teams in the East sit between 25-28 points. A couple of wins here and a couple of losses there could turn the whole thing upside down. So, who among those clubs currently on the outside — Montreal, Philadelphia, Detroit, Columbus, the Rangers, and Florida — have the best shot at upending the current setup and getting back in?
In terms of pure talent and pedigree, Montreal and Florida appear the favourites. Injuries have derailed both teams’ seasons — the Cats are navigating life without Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk, while Montreal has waded through a slew of its own injuries. Still, another deep run from the Panthers seems inevitable, and the Habs’ young core entered this season with plenty of promise.
Meanwhile, Philly, Detroit and Columbus are all mired in playoff droughts of various lengths, but none of them have made it to the dance in the past half-decade. And the Rangers, fresh off crashing out last season and turning over much of their roster, still seem out of sorts in 2025-26.
In terms of the path ahead for each among that group, the Panthers have the most favourable schedule moving forward, and one of the most favourable remaining schedules of any Eastern club. The Jackets, Red Wings and Rangers, on the other hand, all rank among the league’s top five in terms of the difficulty of their remaining schedule, making their paths back even tougher, while Montreal and Philly are both closer to the middle of the pack.
The Penguins seem far from a sure thing when it comes to that wild-card race, too. Pittsburgh started the campaign on fire in October, with new head coach Dan Muse, a slew of new faces, and improved play from their veterans all pointing to a black-and-gold revival. But they’ve fallen back to earth somewhat in November, going 3-4-3 through their past 10 games. And looking ahead, while the fellow wild-card Islanders have one of the most favourable remaining paths, the Pens rank right around the top of the league in terms of the difficulty of their remaining schedule, so the pressure will be on.
Still, there’s no question who heads into December under the most scrutiny. Toronto and Buffalo round out the group as the bottom two clubs in the East. And while the Sabres have missed the playoffs for the past 14 years, the Maple Leafs haven’t been on the outside in a decade — they’ve earned a spot every year since Auston Matthews debuted in blue and white — and they’re coming off a season that saw them finish as division champs, saw them get to Game 7 of Round 2 against the eventual champions.
Maybe that’s a sign that they’ll rally. With how tight the conference has been to this point, the Maple Leafs rank second-last in the East yet sit only four points behind Pittsburgh. But given how out of sorts the club has looked, and how many quality teams sit between them and a playoff spot, it won’t be an easy climb. Making matters worse: Of all the clubs on the bubble, Toronto has one of the most challenging paths forward, passing U.S. Thanksgiving with the third-toughest remaining schedule of any club in the East.
