The College Football Playoff selection committee may, for the first time, actually have a lot of difficult decisions on its hands.
In the four-team era, the committee had only a couple of truly tough calls, with Florida State’s 2023 snub the most inflammatory controversy. Last year, it was SMU or Alabama for the final at-large spot, and most people agreed SMU was the correct call.
But this year is headed toward a logjam of options for the final few spots. I know, because I’m having the same problem in this week’s Athletic 136.
Everyone ranked No. 6 to No. 12 is extremely close, in my opinion: Oregon, Oklahoma, Miami (Fla.), Notre Dame, Alabama and BYU. Do you value wins or do you value losses? How much should a tougher schedule be weighed? A case can be made for all of those teams, and the results in the week ahead could shake up the order. Right behind those teams is another group that could still get in with upsets in the finales, such as Texas, Vanderbilt and Michigan.
This is the fun of the expanded playoff, setting up so many teams to play games with high stakes, but leaving the committee with tougher decisions was always going to be the result. The bigger the bracket gets, the larger the pool of bubble teams gets. As Notre Dame and Miami get closer, as Texas and Vanderbilt get closer, the committee members will have to have conversations they’ve avoided thus far. Buckle up.
Here is this week’s edition of The Athletic 136:
The only change here is Oregon moving back into the top 10 after beating USC 42-27. The Ducks finally got a quality win and did so relatively comfortably, and their only loss is to my No. 2 team. Other than an early-November trip to Iowa, Oregon has kept its opponents at arm’s length or more in wins. The computer metrics also love Oregon (No. 3 in Sagarin). The Ducks may not be a lock if they lose to Washington, however, because of the aforementioned logjam of options. But win to get to 11-1, and they’re in. I also kept Ole Miss ahead of Oregon because the Rebels have a top-10 win.
Your weekly explanation: Miami remains ahead of Notre Dame because I view the teams as being in the same tier, and Miami won the head-to-head matchup. This weekend, Miami beat Virginia Tech 34-17, while Notre Dame plastered Syracuse 70-7. Miami beat Syracuse 38-10 earlier, but I’m not really interested in comparing the size of blowouts. Neither was close. SMU’s run makes Miami’s loss to the Mustangs look better, while Louisville’s collapse makes Miami’s other loss look worse. Then again, Notre Dame’s continued success also makes that Miami win look better. The Canes finish the season against another common opponent in a solid Pitt team, on the road, so these teams aren’t locked together for good yet.
Alabama drops a spot as a result of Oregon moving up, but the Tide are still in the field for now. They do have the best win of anyone in this top group, at Georgia, but they also have the worst loss, to a 5-6 Florida State team (that Miami beat). Yes, it was Week 1, but if it counts for Notre Dame, it counts for Alabama. Missouri’s fall has also removed a top-25 win for Alabama, bringing the Tide’s total to three (Georgia, Vanderbilt, Tennessee). But if Alabama beats Auburn to get into the SEC Championship Game, that may be enough to lock up a Playoff spot.
BYU, Texas and Vanderbilt slide up after wins. Again, I view Texas and Vanderbilt on the same tier, and Texas won their head-to-head meeting. The only difference in the records is that Texas has a nonconference loss to No. 1 Ohio State. Utah drops a couple of spots to No. 15 after needing a rally to beat Kansas State in a bizarre 51-47 win. BYU is a difficult team to place because of its many close wins and lopsided loss to Texas Tech. The Cougars’ resume is solid at first glance, but they haven’t been as dominant as others in this group. Cincinnati missed three field goals in a 12-point game on Saturday, for example, and BYU is down to No. 20 in the Sagarin ratings.
USC remains at No. 16 after the Oregon loss because I still have the Trojans ahead of Michigan due to their head-to-head meeting. Michigan’s resume lacks great wins (both teams beat Nebraska), and the Wolverines have played just one top-10 opponent, while USC has played two. This will also sort itself out: Beat No. 1 Ohio State, and the Wolverines will shoot up; lose and they’ll likely be behind USC anyway.
SMU reaches the top 20 after a 38-6 win against an undermanned Louisville team, while Pitt rises for beating Georgia Tech on the road. If SMU beats a Cal team playing under an interim head coach, the Mustangs will play for the ACC championship for the second year in a row.
North Texas remains my top Group of 5 team because the Mean Green beat UTSA 55-17 in October, while Tulane lost 48-26 to UTSA a few weeks later. But there is now a good chance that Tulane and UNT will face each other in the American title game and sort it out.
James Madison remains just outside the top 25. The Dukes are having a great season and just beat Washington State 24-20, but North Texas beat Wazzu 59-10 earlier this season. It’s hard to see a path to a CFP spot for the Dukes without some American upsets. Houston falls after a loss to TCU but remains ahead of Arizona because the Cougars beat the Wildcats last month.
Nebraska drops after a 37-10 loss at Penn State, while Cincinnati falls due to its loss to BYU and combined with its Week 1 loss to Nebraska. East Carolina drops for losing to UTSA, and Memphis falls along with the Pirates.
UConn has finished its regular season at 9-3 and sits at No. 44 after beating FAU. Northwestern jumps 10 spots for beating Minnesota to get bowl-eligible. Duke slides back into the top 50 for beating North Carolina late to reach bowl eligibility.
Florida State, dropping after a loss to NC State, is in the awkward position of having outgained its opponents in 10 of 11 games yet only winning five. New Mexico climbs after a comfortable win against Air Force to get to 8-3. Kansas State stays put for taking Utah to the limit, while Western Kentucky moves up after a close 13-10 loss at LSU.
Stanford inches up to No. 70 for beating Cal but remains behind Hawaii because of their Week 0 meeting, a walk-off win for the Rainbow Warriors. Kennesaw State joins this group after beating Missouri State to improve to 8-3 in coach Jerry Mack’s first season after inheriting a 2-10 program. UCLA has fallen back to earth after that midseason surge, down to No. 75 following a 48-14 loss to Washington.
Wisconsin moves up for knocking off Illinois but stays behind Maryland due to their head-to-head result. Arkansas is a remarkable 2-9 overall with a plus-3 point differential on the season following a 15-point loss to Texas. The Razorbacks have a case as one of the best nine-loss teams of all time. Southern Miss and Jacksonville State slide after losses, including behind UCF, which beat Jax State earlier this year.
Western Michigan and Ohio slide up to Nos. 80 and 81 atop the MAC, while No. 91 Toledo and No. 92 Central Michigan aren’t far behind. The Broncos have one MAC loss, while the other three each have two. Michigan State drops to No. 88 after a loss to Iowa keeps the Spartans at risk of their first winless and tie-less Big Ten season.
We’re running out of time for these schools to make moves with just one week left, and a lot of teams at the top of this group won, so there wasn’t much room to move up. Tulsa beat Army to climb a few spots but stays behind New Mexico State due to their September meeting.
Nevada rises for the second week in a row after beating Wyoming. San Jose State drops after following its loss to Nevada with a 25-3 loss to San Diego State. Kent State technically moved up after a loss to Central Michigan but only because of worse losses elsewhere. Middle Tennessee is up to No. 131 after ending Sam Houston’s two-game winning streak.
Georgia State lost 31-19 to Troy, while Charlotte lost 35-3 to Georgia. But UMass remains winless and No. 136 after a loss to Ohio. The Minutemen’s last chance for a win will come against Bowling Green.
