The CFP committee has made it very clear: BYU will not get an at-large bid in the playoff unless teams in front of them lose. BYU is currently the first team out of the 12-team bracket. The Cougars would need to move up at least one spot to have an at-large chance going into conference championship weekend. There is only one more weekend for those teams to slip up and let BYU crack the top 10.
In this article, we are going to break down the chances that one of the teams ranked ahead of BYU will lose, allowing the Cougars a chance to move up.
There are five teams ranked ahead of BYU that, should they lose, could drop below the Cougars in the CFP rankings: no. 6 Oregon, no. 7 Ole Miss, no. 8 Oklahoma, no. 9 Notre Dame, and no. 10 Alabama. All five of those teams will be favored this weekend.
Below are their opponents and win probabilities according to SP+:
Even though these teams are favored, the math says it’s unlikely that all five will win. According to the SP+ win probabilities, there is only a 26.6% chance that all five of them will win this weekend. In fact, it is more likely that two or more of those teams lose (31% chance) than all five of them win.
Where it gets a bit complicated is Oregon and Ole Miss. If they lose, there is no guarantee that they would move below BYU in the rankings. Therefore, the losses that would benefit BYU the most would be losses by Alabama, Notre Dame, or Oklahoma. There is a 49% chance that all three of those teams win this weekend.
BYU needs chaos. There has been hardly any chaos the last two weeks. The data suggests chaos is more likely than not. At this point, it’s overdue.
There are three teams in particular that are a threat to leapfrog BYU in the final rankings: no. 12 Miami, no. 14 Vanderbilt, and no. 15 Michigan.
The Wolverines would almost certainly jump into the top ten if they upset no. 1 Ohio State this weekend. No. 14 Vanderbilt also has the chance for a ranked win over Tennessee. Then there’s Miami, who has a chance for some style points at Pitt.
It would really help BYU if those teams lost this weekend.
