Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League and sees Newcastle slipping up on the road again at Everton.
Brentford vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm
To have picked up 13 points from a possible 18 at home despite facing a tough fixture list of Newcastle, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and Aston Villa is an excellent barometer of the work Keith Andrews is doing at Brentford. There’s been no ripping up of the tactical blueprint. No reinventing of any wheels. Just smart coaching and decision making that is utilising their strengths.
Meanwhile, there’s good intent, plenty of promise, lots of neat build-up at Burnley, but when the big moments come, the Clarets too often are brushed aside. Over 2.5 goals has landed in every one of their six away days so adding that line to a Brentford win results in a 5/4 shot to attack with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Manchester City vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
When a price looks wrong, it’s usually because the market has failed to adapt to a change in circumstances. And in Rayan Cherki’s case, the assumption is that the Premier League will treat him the same way Ligue 1 did when it comes to being fouled.
The algorithms that price the “fouls won” markets are still feeding on French data, where he averaged 1.4 last season – it’s a figure that is on the rise. He’s been fouled two or more times in three of his four starts for City, where he is picking up the ball in the heart of the midfield battle, to an average of 1.9 fouls per 90. The 7/4 with Sky Bet for him to be fouled twice again is a lovely chunk of value.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Rayan Cherki to win two or more fouls (7/4 with Sky Bet)
Sunderland vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Sometimes the numbers don’t whisper, they scream at you – and Bournemouth’s away data is doing a full-blown fire alarm routine when it comes to backing goals in this encounter.
Let’s start with the headline stat: 3.85 goals per game in the last 20 Bournemouth’s away fixtures.
That isn’t a trend, that’s a lifestyle choice from Andoni Iraola, whose philosophy of how to play the game mirrors that chunky goal return. And when 18 of those 20 games on the road have sailed over 2.5 goals, you can stop calling it variance and start calling it what it is: a profitable betting theory when the prices are right.
You don’t hit overs in 18 of 20 by accident. Jump on the over 2.5 at 10/11 with Sky Bet. It’s the bet of the weekend.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Everton vs Newcastle, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Newcastle are about as reliable away from home as a toddler walking past a puddle.
Dating back to last season, Newcastle have no win in eight Premier League away games – their worst run since December 2021 – and across all competitions they have lost four on the spin away from home sweet St James’ Park.
The energy, the press, the sharpness, everything that has made Eddie Howe’s team a Premier League force, all goes down a gear on their travels. They have looked leggy, stretched and noticeably flatter in defeats at West Ham and Brentford of late.
And, this game is of course their third game in eight days, too. Everton will be licking their lips.
Newcastle away from home have a problem and Everton at home are a problem for them – just like Brentford and West Ham were – and the price hasn’t quite caught up that fact. The 7/4 on offer from Sky Bet for a home win looks the smart play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Tottenham vs Fulham, Saturday 8pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Fulham to have 13 or more shots at 10/11 with Sky Bet has got my attention. Spurs are facing 12.7 shots per game this season. That’s a marker of a team who are struggling to dominate territory and one which is happy to soak up pressure.
And the teams clearing the 13-shot bar aren’t exactly a who’s who of juggernauts. Burnley, Bournemouth, Bodø/Glimt, Monaco and Leeds have all walked into Spurs matches and hit the magic 13 or more number.
Also, Cristian Romero’s suspension bodes well for a Fulham shots play.
From a 23-game sample in the Premier League, Tottenham concede almost five more shots per match without their influential defender. A huge number. That’s not a wobble, that’s a structural collapse – one that Fulham can exploit on their way to a victory.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Crystal Palace vs Manchester United, Sunday 12pm
Strip the names away, hide the crests and if this was Team A hosting Team B then Crystal Palace would be odds-on.
Because every measurable facet of Palace’s game carries more structure, coherence and repeatability than anything Manchester United are serving up right now. This is why the 13/10 on offer for a Palace home win is dripping in value.
This isn’t about history. It’s about now. And right now, United play football that resembles a flickering lightbulb: occasionally bright but one bad moment away from plunging a room into darkness.
Palace, under Oliver Glasner, are the opposite. They look like a team. A functioning one. A confident one. A side that knows how to create, how to control.
You’re getting a fantastic price here on a better-drilled side, the clearer identity, the team whose game has weight and repeatability, not a historical brand propped up by recreational money in the markets. Home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Aston Villa vs Wolves, Sunday 2.05pm, live on Sky Sports
The value doesn’t live in the traditional markets here as Aston Villa are rightly dominating across the board – it’s hiding where Wolves under Rob Edwards are on the improve and that’s their set piece output. His teams work set plays meticulously.
His Luton team ranked as the best team in the Championship from set piece goals scored and expected goals output in both spells in that league while his Forest Green side ranked second for expected goals from set pieces during their promotion from League Two.
We’ve already seen signs in one game that Wolves are taking set pieces more seriously after creating 0.77 worth of expected goals from those scenarios in the defeat to Crystal Palace. Ladislav Krejci, who has had 10 shots in his last 10 games, was the main threat and first contact from corners last weekend. He looks a tasty bet at 12/1 with Sky Bet to score.
Ladislac Krejci is 12/1 with Sky Bet to score
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Nottingham Forest vs Brighton, Sunday 2.05pm, live on Sky Sports
If there’s one thing betting teaches you, it’s that bad beats are difficult to stomach no matter how long you’ve been in this game for. And last week’s angle, Brentford on the double chance at Brighton – still lingers like a stubborn hangover. The logic was right, the bet looked to be cashing, right up until those football gods decided that Brentford would throw away a 1-0 lead with 10 minutes to go and Igor Thiago would miss a penalty with the final kick.
But here we are again, staring at a very familiar setup. And, yes, I am going back to the well in taking on Brighton in this spot because the well is still overflowing with value. Brighton, for all their fluidity and lovely patterns, simply do not enjoy playing teams who go direct, who turn them.
Under Fabian Hurzeler, Brighton have won 19 of 34 Premier League games when their opponents have played under 15 per cent of passes long, but only two of 16 games otherwise. Forest played 26 per cent of passes long vs Liverpool last week and a similar approach puts them in a great spot of getting another result with the 10/11 on the draw no bet standing out.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
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Highlights from the Premier League clash between Liverpool and Nottingham Forest.
West Ham vs Liverpool, Sunday 2.05pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Virgil van Dijk has made nine fouls in his last five games. The imperious, sometimes untouchable defender has gone missing and been replaced by a far scruffier version that is making more mistakes and committing more fouls.
It took 11 games for Van Dijk to reach five fouls at the start of last season – now it looks like he can make five in one game.
That player who glided through matches without needing to lay a glove on anyone is suddenly hacking, grabbing and stepping into late challenges like a man trying to put out fires with a watering can. Playing next to Ibrahima Konate can do that to a player.
His direct opponent Callum Wilson is clever at tempting defenders into awkward contact and picking up soft fouls. Go back two seasons ago and Wilson was drawing 1.6 fouls per 90 in the Premier League and has won five fouls in four starts under Nuno Espirito Santo, who seems to trust him now to be the focal point.
The price of 11/2 with Sky Bet for Van Dijk to make at least two fouls is massive – best price of the season territory. Take the value before the market catches up.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Virgil van Dijk to make two or more fouls (11/2 with Sky Bet)
Chelsea vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This game stinks of caution.
Those anticipating that one of these teams are going to play “statement-making football” could end up disappointed as these games can turn into an exercise in risk management, especially when you consider the hectic schedule both teams are facing at the moment.
Enzo Maresca and Mikel Arteta are cut from the same cloth when it comes to control and not taking unnecessary risks, especially Arteta in these types of games away from home. Last season, Arsenal won just once away in their eight games with top nine opposition, drawing five of those matches. They’ve been beaten at Anfield this season and came through in gritty fashion at Newcastle in a very nip-and-tuck encounter.
Arteta plays these games like a draw is just fine in the grand scheme of things – and he’s not wrong.
Both teams know that a point keeps the narrative intact. Nothing is lost, everything remains possible. The stalemate, the bet no one wants to back, is the shrewdest way to approach the outright market with 21/10 on offer with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Jones Knows’ best bets:
- 1pt double on Rayan Cherki to be fouled at least twice & over 2.5 goals in Sunderland vs Bournemouth (4/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Virgil van Dijk to make at least two fouls vs West Ham (11/2 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ Profit & Loss record 25/26
Best Bet singles (1 unit)
Best Bet multiples
Total P+L
Matchday One
0
-1
-1
Matchday Two
0
-1
-2
Matchday Three
0
-1
-3
Matchday Four
0
-1
-4
Matchday Five
+2.75
-1
-2.75
Matchday Six
-1
-1
-4.75
Matchday Seven
-1
0
-5.75
Matchday Eight
-3
0
-8.75
Matchday Nine
0
-1
-9.75
Matchday 10
-1
-1
-11.75
Matchday 11
-1
0
-12.75
Matchday 12
-1
-1
-14.75
