MSU football video analysis after the Spartans’ 20-17 loss at Iowa
Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch and Detroit Free Press beat writer Chris Solari discuss MSU’s loss at Iowa and decisions that led to it.
Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan State’s football game against Maryland on Saturday at Ford Field in Detroit. Time: 7 p.m. TV: FS1. Betting line: MSU -4.
1. Can MSU put it all together, just once?
MSU’s defense has improved significantly in the second half of the season, especially in the first three quarters of games. That they wear down late is largely a product of a lack of help. MSU’s offense and special teams have gotten worse in ways as the season has gone along. The Spartans, however, showed some things offensively against a stingy Iowa defense to make you think they might have the goods to score enough to win one of these games at some point. Maryland presents the best — and last — opportunity to do that.
The question is whether MSU’s offensive line can protect just well enough to let the Spartans’ passing game find some rhythm. Because some of MSU’s playmakers seem to be in form, including receiver Chrishon McCray and the Spartans’ tight ends. That doesn’t include the two best players on the Spartans’ offense the first month of the season, receivers Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly, who I’m sure would like to finish the year on a high note. Running back Elijah Tau-Tolliver has come on late in the year, too, behind a line that’s clearly better at run-blocking than pass protection. This MSU team might be one decent night of protection away from a pretty good overall performance, especially given Saturday’s opponent. But considering that MSU is allowing a Big Ten-worst 3.36 sacks per game and QB Alessio Milivojevic has taken 4,724 hits over the last three games, it’s also hard to imagine a decent night of pass protection from the Spartans against anyone.
2. MSU’s surging defense vs. Maryland’s limited offense
“Surging” is a relative term. But there is no question the Spartans are a better defense than a month ago, especially defending the pass. MSU hasn’t allowed a 200-yard passing game since Indiana and, over the past four games, only Minnesota has thrown for more than 150 yards against the Spartans. A lot of that is opponent-dependent. MSU has faced Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State and Iowa, all teams with limitations in the passing game.
But Maryland also falls into that category, as well, with a freshman quarterback in Malik Washington who’s thrown eight touchdown passes, seven interceptions and is only averaging 5.5 yards per pass attempt, which is the lowest of any starting QB in the Big Ten. Washington is a big, athletic QB, who is capable of making plays on the ground. And Maryland protects him a heckuva lot better than the Spartans do Milivojevic. The Terrapins allow the second-fewest sacks in the Big Ten.
Even so, this is a Maryland team that’s averaging just 16.4 first downs per game in conference play, third from last in the Big Ten. MSU, for comparison, is a few spots ahead at 17.4 first downs per game in Big Ten games. The Terrapins also have a fairly pedestrian rushing attack. This MSU defense isn’t going to overwhelm anyone. But the Spartans should be able to continue being the defense they’ve become over the last month, since coordinator Joe Rossi made his way down to the sidelines.
3. Ryan Eckley
MSU’s Ryan Eckley has a chance to lead the nation in yards per punt with a good game indoors Saturday. It’s also a chance to make amends for an off day that came at the worst time at Iowa last week — including an 11-yard shank and a final punt that was supposed to go out of bounds but instead landed in the hands of Iowa’s all-everything return man, who ran it back into MSU territory, setting up the game-tying touchdown.
Eckley is still just a whisker from leading college football in punting, averaging 48.64 yards, a little more than two-tenths of a yard behind Western Kentucky’s Cole Maynard. For a lot of this season, Eckley has been a weapon for the Spartans. If this is indeed his last game before leaving for the NFL, MSU could use one final night of booming and pinpoint Eckley punts. Playing at Ford Field — and not against Iowa’s Kaden Wetjen — should help.
4. Mike Locksley vs. Jonathan Smith
The last time Jonathan Smith faced Maryland, early last season, the Spartans looked like they might be on their way, and Aidan Chiles and Nick Marsh looked like a duo that would be wreaking havoc on the Big Ten week after week. That Sept. 7, 2024, 27-24 win feels like years ago. Smith is now perhaps coaching his final game at MSU, his tenure in limbo at best. Maryland coach Mike Locksley, who’s produced the same number of wins over the past two seasons, is being brought back next year for an eighth season, despite a 39-74 record as a head coach. Smith probably wishes he had Maryland’s administration.
I don’t think winning this game will change a thing for Jonathan Smith’s future. The cake is likely already baked at this point. But Smith has been trying to make the case over the last couple weeks that he needs another year. There is no case if you can’t beat late-season Mike Locksley with comparable talent in a quasi-home game.
5. The crowd at Ford Field
In terms of entertainment value, there are worse ideas tham going to Ford Field with a cheap or free ticket for a cozy night of college football to cap a holiday weekend. If your extended family is still hanging around, and you’re working on your third puzzle, 3-8 MSU vs. 4-7 Maryland looks pretty good for a Saturday night. That said, I don’t know how many people will take the bait. I’d guess the crowd will top 20,000, which, as someone who’s covered regular-season MAC football games at Ford Field, can feel like a decent atmosphere. If it gets too much smaller, though, this could be a depressing setting. I think most MSU fans are over the Jonathan Smith era, but they’d like to see this group of players enjoy a win again. The question is whether that and/or the cheap ticket are enough to bring them out.
Prediction
MSU has lost eight straight. Maryland has lost seven in a row. There haven’t been ties in college football in 30 years, so somebody has to win. These teams have had similar journeys, both in terms of the arc of the season and how they’ve fared against common opponents. Both of these teams would have a real shot to win the MAC, so perhaps this serves as the undercard for the MAC championship game a week later at Ford Field, between Western Michigan and Toledo or Miami-Ohio or Central Michigan or Ohio. MSU has been snakebitten late in games by tough breaks, questionable decisions and some bad officiating. Maryland has been just as unfortunate and sometimes overmatched this season. The Spartans have been the more competitive team for the past month. I think they can find a way to not to lose this one.
Make it: MSU 27, Maryland 24, in overtime
MORE: Couch: 3 quick takes on Michigan State’s 20-17 loss at Iowa
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
