The 2025 FCS playoffs are here! The full 24-team field was revealed on Sunday, Nov. 23. North Dakota State took the top seed, followed by Montana State and Montana, respectively, at Nos. 2 and 3.
With the complete field released and the first round starting on Saturday, Nov. 29, there’s no better time to predict every game for the 2025 tournament.
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Here are my 2025 FCS championship predictions, game by game.
First round | Nov. 29
1 p.m. ET | Illinois State at No. 16 Southeastern Louisiana
Winner: Illinois State
Illinois State rebounds after a season-ending loss with a road win over Southeastern Louisiana. Southeastern Louisiana only had 56 yards passing against Lamar — the second-most efficient pass defense in the Southland.
Illinois State’s pass defense has more interceptions than Lamar and is comparable. I think the Redbirds step up defensively and get the win.
12 p.m. ET| Central Connecticut State at No. 9 Rhode Island
Winner: Rhode Island
Rhode Island, the CAA champion, faces Central Connecticut State, the NEC champion.
I wouldn’t be surprised if big-bodied running back Antwain Littleton Jr. is the catalyst of this game, leading Rhode Island to a win against a CCSU run defense that allows over 150 rushing yards per game.
12 p.m. ET | Harvard at No. 12 Villanova
Winner: Harvard
Harvard earned an at-large bid after losing the Ivy League title to Yale in the last regular-season week. That said, I still think the Crimson, a team that was poised for a potential bye before the loss, are the pick in the first round against Villanova.
I think these teams are evenly matched in some ways, but not at the quarterback position. Harvard quarterback Jaden Craig is the difference maker in this matchup.
1 p.m. ET | North Dakota at No. 13 Tennessee Tech
Winner: Tennessee Tech
Tennessee Tech vs. North Dakota is an interesting matchup after the Fighting Hawks grabbed one of the last playoff spots, while the Golden Eagles might enter the game feeling underseeded.
Tennessee Tech hasn’t played an opponent of the quality of North Dakota this year, but it still has one of the top scoring offenses and defenses in the nation.
I think these stats carry over against a North Dakota team that allowed a South Dakota State team on its third-string quarterback to put up 34 points. Tennessee Tech gets the win at home.
BRACKET: See the official 2025 FCS playoff bracket
1 p.m. ET | New Hampshire at No. 14 South Dakota State
Winner: South Dakota State
Regardless of who plays at quarterback for South Dakota State, I think the Jackrabbits win their first-round game. I expect this game to be a defensive battle where the Jackrabbits take advantage of a New Hampshire offense that only converts 39 percent of its third downs.
1 p.m. ET | Drake at No. 11 South Dakota
Winner: South Dakota
Drake lost to South Dakota 42-21 in the regular season. The Coyotes complete a season sweep with a first-round win.
1 p.m. ET | Lamar at No. 10 Abilene Christian
Winner: Abilene Christian
Lamar just lost to McNeese to close the season on a 1-3 stretch. The Cardinals are heading in the wrong direction, while Abilene Christian closed the season on a four-game win streak.
ACU enters the game with momentum and plays at home. That carries the Wildcats to a win.
12 p.m. ET | Yale at No. 15 Youngstown State
Winner: Youngstown State
Yale doesn’t have an answer for Youngstown State quarterback Beau Brungard on the ground or through the air. Youngstown State defends its home field.
AQ: Every automatic qualifying bid for the 2024 FCS playoffs
Second round | Dec. 6
1 p.m. ET | Illinois State at No. 1 North Dakota State
Winner: North Dakota State
North Dakota State beat Illinois State 33-16 in the regular season. Now the Bison get a rematch coming off a bye. NDSU wins again.
3 p.m. ET | No. 9 Rhode Island at No. 8 UC Davis
Winner: Rhode Island
Rhode Island knocks off UC Davis in an 8-9 sedd battle. While I like UC Davis’ freshman quarterback Caden Pinnick, the Aggies have a suspect defense. Meanwhile, Rhode Island has an experienced offense led by quarterback Devin Farrell and wide receiver Marquis Buchanan.
The URI offense gets the job done.
12 p.m. ET | Harvard at No. 5 Lehigh
Winner: Lehigh
This game will be Luke Yoder’s coming-out party for anyone who hasn’t watched Lehigh play this season. Yoder is one of the best running backs in the FCS, and he’ll have his way with a Harvard defense that struggled to stop the run vs. Yale and Penn to close the season.
1 p.m. ET | No. 13 Tennessee Tech at No. 4 Tarleton State
Winner: Tennessee Tech
Tarleton State gets upset at home in the first round. I see the Texans and Tennessee Tech as evenly matched teams in almost every area. That is, except in run defense.
Tennessee Tech allows just 76 rushing yards per game. A look back at Tarleton State’s loss to Abilene Christian shows that the Texans failed to rush for 100 yards. While injuries played a role, injuries are a part of football.
Even when healthy, I think Tennessee Tech can slow down the Tarleton rush attack just enough. In a game that has shootout potential, a one-dimensional attack leads to an early exit for the Texans.
SEEDS: The importance of a top seed in the FCS playoffs, explained
2 p.m. | No. 14 South Dakota State at No. 3 Montana
Winner: Montana
Montana will open its playoff with FCS power South Dakota State. By this point, the Grizzlies could play Chase Mason as he returns from injury or a backup quarterback in Jack Henry. I like the Grizzlies in this matchup no matter who’s at quarterback, given Mason’s long layoff.
Montana has weapons across the board with one of the best QB-RB-WR trios in the country in Keali’i Ah Yat, Eli Gilman and Michael Wortham. The trio should get some extra possesions against South Dakota State thanks to a defense that ranks second nationally in interceptions.
12 p.m. ET | No. 11 South Dakota No. 6 Mercer
Winner: Mercer
South Dakota’s offensive engine is running back L.J. Phillips Jr., the third-leading rusher in the FCS. However, Mercer has the No. 4 run defense in the FCS. Something has to give, and I don’t think it will be the Bears who only have allowed 2.86 yards per carry this season.
Without a balanced attack, South Dakota won’t be able to keep up with Mercer and the nation’s second-leading passer, Braden Atkinson.
1 p.m. ET | No. 10 Abilene Christian at No. 7 Stephen F. Austin
Winner: Abilene Christian
Abilene Christian beat Stephen F. Austin at home earlier in the year. Now the Wildcats head on the road in an effort to repeat a win. Both teams have gotten better since then, and I think this one will be another close one.
You have to be able to run the ball in the playoffs, and ACU held SFA to just 52 yards on 33 attempts in the first matchup. That said, I’ll go with ACU to win the rematch.
2 p.m. ET | No. 15 Youngstown State at No. 2 Montana State
Winner: Montana State
Youngstown State was within five points of North Dakota State in the fourth quarter of their matchup. Don’t be surprised if the second-round matchup against Montana State — a team comparable to the Bison — is a close contest too.
I still think Montana State wins because YSU allows over 4.3 yards per carry and 30 points per game, but the Penguins can hang around.
HISTORY: Schools with the most FCS titles | 9 winningest FCS programs all time | Championship history
Quarterfinals | Dec. 12 and 13
No. 9 Rhode Island at No. 1 North Dakota State
Winner: North Dakota State
I don’t think Rhode Island has the depth in the trenches to hang with a North Dakota State offensive line with players like Griffin Empey wearing down on them for four quarters. A dominant day on the ground sends NDSU to the semifinals.
No. 13 Tennessee Tech at No. 5 Lehigh
Winner: Tennessee Tech
I’m not sure if Lehigh can keep up with Tennessee Tech. The Golden Eagles average 42 points per game entering the playoffs. The Mountain Hawks average 33.8. That’s not a bad number, but when diving deeper, you’ll notice that 34 of Lehigh’s 52 offensive touchdowns (65 percent) have been on the ground.
Will Lehigh quarterback Hayden Johnson be able to take over through the air against a Tennessee Tech defense that has only allowed 10 rushing touchdowns on the year? I don’t think so. Tennessee Tech to the semifinals.
No. 6 Mercer at No. 2 Montana
Winner: Montana
Mercer quarterback Braden Atkinson has never played in an environment that’ll be a raucous as a playoff atmosphere in Montana. Even if Atkinson can handle the pressure that comes with that Wa-Griz, I still think Montana is the better team here.
Wide receiver Michael Wortham is hard for even Mercer’s stout defense to prepare for, and running back Eli Gilman can take advantage of even the slightest mistake from the Mercer front-seven.
Montana advances.
No. 10 Abilene Christian at No. 2 Montana State
Winner: Montana State
Twenty-five percent of Abilene Christian’s rushing touchdowns allowed have come from quarterbacks. That includes two in a losing effort to UIW.
That’s a great sign for Montana State quarterback Justin Lamson, who has 11 rushing touchdowns on the year. Lamson should be able to use his dual-threat ability to carve through the ACU defense en route to a win.
SELECTION SHOW: Rewatch the 2025 FCS Selection Show
Semifinals | Dec. 20
No. 13 Tennessee Tech at No. 1 North Dakota State
Winner: North Dakota State
Tennessee Tech’s Cinderella run comes to an end when it meets the Bison. It’ll be a throwback game for Tennessee Tech quarterback Kekoa Visperas, who lost to NDSU back in 2023, 35-10, when he was with Eastern Washington.
Visperas won’t find redemption this year as North Dakota State has held opposing quarterbacks to just a 53 percent completion percentage. I think North Dakota State can get after Visperas behind a defense that led the MVFC in interceptions and finished second in sacks.
North Dakota State advances to the national title game.
No. 3 Montana at No. 2 Montana State
Winner: Montana State
Montana State went to Missoula and beat Montana by three points. Now, Montana State gets to host the Grizzlies. The Bobcats take this one in front of the home crowd.
🏆: FCS Championship Game info
FCS Championship Game | Jan. 5
No. 2 Montana State at No. 1 North Dakota State
Winner: North Dakota State
In a national championship rematch, North Dakota State wins its 11th title, thanks to a dynamic weapon on the outside.
Bison wideout Bryce Lance had nine catches for 107 yards and a touchdown in last year’s championship, and another big day could be in store for the future NFL draft pick.
UC Davis wide receiver Samuel Gbatu Jr., Montana wide receiver Brooks Davis and South Dakota State wide receiver Lofton O’Groske all had big days against the Montana State defense. Lance is better than them all.
The Montana State defense can try to take away Lance, but then it’ll be susceptible to the North Dakota State rushing attack.
The NDSU offense presents too many problems for the Montana State defense, and the Bison go back-to-back.
