Borussia Dortmund’s form has been sputtering lately, and now they are dealt the unfortunate hand of a trip to face one of the best teams in Germany on a hot run of form, Bayer Leverkusen. Die Werkself had a tough start to the season thanks to the uniquely weird and awful vibes of Erik ten Hag, but since his replacement Kasper Hjulmand came in they have been absolutely flying. They have lost just once in the Bundesliga since Hjulmand took the reins, away to Bayern Munich, and right now Leverkusen look like the strongest candidate for the title of The Best of the Rest (Predicting Ball has them just ahead of Borussia Dortmund).
BVB returned to winning ways during the week against Villarreal, but Leverkusen are likely to put up more of a fight, and I am not especially confident that Niko Kovač‘s side will be up to the task.
Player to Watch: Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick has scored goals everywhere he’s played, yet never seems to be trusted to be the leading man. That has changed this season, though possibly because Leverkusen were left with no choice but to give Schick their backing. So far, the Czech striker has repaid the faith put in him with five goals and two assists in the Bundesliga (0.72 npG+A/90).
Schick will be riding high having scored Leverkusen’s second goal in their 2-0 victory against Man City in the Champions League on Tuesday. He always poses a threat, no matter the circumstances, and BVB’s defense will have to be switched on to keep him contained.
The only player that is ruled out of tomorrow’s squad is Niklas Süle, and Maximilian Beier’s fitness will be assessed late. I think Beier will play a part against Leverkusen, but it’s likely to be from the bench.
The biggest exclusions from my lineup are probably Ramy Bensebaini and Marcel Sabitzer. I think Bensebaini won’t be ready to come back into the starting eleven tomorrow, but perhaps he will get some minutes later in the game. Sabitzer, however, could very well make the starting lineup. I think Sabitzer looked good earlier in the week, but I’ve opted for Bellingham in his place just because I am not convinced Sabitzer has the legs to play consecutive games anymore. When he’s rested he looks good, but otherwise I think Bellingham is probably preferred.
I am once again refusing to give my own prediction because I lack courage, so I am farming this bit out to my model, which is giving Leverkusen the edge. Predicting Ball gives Leverkusen a 46.4% probability of victory, compared against a 29.4% probability that Dortmund come away with all three points. Unfortunately, I think my model is right on this one.
Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Borussia Dortmund
Who will get the nod for BVB on Saturday? And what is your prediction for the game? Let us know in the comments.
