College football bowl projections: Teams in the spotlight as postseason picture gets clearer – The Athletic

Auburn would cause SEC and CFP havoc — and secure a bowl bid — with a win over Alabama in the Iron Bowl. Brandon Sumrall / Getty Images

With one week left until the regular season ends, 72 Football Bowl Subdivision teams have qualified for 82 postseason slots, and 20 others can qualify with a win on the final week of the regular season.

Speculation will swirl for the next two weeks about who deserves what regarding the College Football Playoff, but for now, let’s dive into the details of the teams competing for bowl bids.

This weekend, there are three winner-take-all duels between 5-6 teams for bowl eligibility: Penn State at Rutgers, Georgia Southern at Marshall, and Arkansas State at Appalachian State. Fourteen other five-win teams also have a shot at a bowl game:

• Kentucky (5-6) at Louisville (7-4)
• Alabama (9-2) at Auburn (5-6)
• Ole Miss (10-1) at Mississippi State (5-6)
• Florida State (5-6) at Florida (3-8)
• Kansas (5-6) at Utah (9-2)
• Colorado (3-8) at Kansas State (5-6)
• UCF (5-6) at BYU (10-1)
• Oregon State (2-9) at Washington State (5-6)
• Temple (5-6) at North Texas (10-1)
• Army (5-5) at UTSA (6-5)
• Rice (5-6) at USF (8-3)
• Louisiana (5-6) at Louisiana-Monroe (3-8)
• Texas State (5-6) at South Alabama (4-7)
• Ohio (7-4) at Buffalo (5-6)

If there aren’t enough 6-6 teams, the NCAA will allow teams transitioning from the Football Championship Subdivision to take an available spot. This year, Missouri State (7-4) has become the de facto first alternate. Delaware (5-6) could become a second alternate should it beat UTEP (2-9) at home.

A few evergreen notes:

This is the second season of the 12-team College Football Playoff. The highest-ranked five conference champions plus the top seven at-large teams qualify.

The four highest-ranked teams earn first-round byes. Those teams will play in the Cotton (Dec. 31), Orange (Jan. 1), Rose (Jan. 1) and Sugar (Dec. 31) bowls on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. Teams seeded 5-8 will host seeds 9-12 on Dec. 19-20. Should the Big Ten and SEC champions earn byes, they will play in the Rose and Sugar bowls, respectively.

The former Pac-12 schools still fall under the conference’s old agreements. It’s possible to see in-conference matchups in the Alamo, Vegas, Holiday or Sun bowls.

ESPN Events owns the Bahamas Bowl and will move it to a different location, which should be announced this week.

BowlMatchup

Playoff
Dec. 19, 2025

7 Ole Miss

10 Alabama

Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025

6 Oregon

11 SMU

Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025

5 Texas Tech

12 North Texas

Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025

8 Oklahoma

9 Notre Dame

Cotton
Dec. 31, 2025

3 Indiana

Oregon/SMU winner

Orange
Jan. 1, 2026

4 Georgia

TxTech/UNT winner

Rose
Jan. 1, 2026

1 Ohio State

ND/OU winner

Sugar
Jan. 1, 2026

2 Texas A&M

Ole Miss/Bama winner

Fiesta
Jan. 8, 2026

QF winner

QF winner

Peach
Jan. 9, 2026

QF winner

QF winner

Championship
Jan. 19, 2026

SF winner

SF winner

BowlMatchup

LA
Dec. 13, 2025

Pac-12 6 Arizona

MWC 1 San Diego State

Salute to Veterans
Dec. 16, 2025

Sun Belt Troy

MAC Miami (OH)

Cure
Dec. 17, 2025

Sun Belt James Madison

G5/Open UConn

68 Ventures
Dec. 17, 2025

Sun Belt Louisiana

Open Buffalo

Myrtle Beach
Dec. 19, 2025

Sun Belt Old Dominion

Open Kennesaw State

Gasparilla
Dec. 19, 2025

SEC/ACC/AAC Florida State

Open USF

Famous Idaho Potato
Dec. 22, 2025

MWC Utah State

MAC Marshall

Boca Raton
Dec. 23, 2025

Open Coastal Carolina

Open Jacksonville State

New Orleans
Dec. 23, 2025

Sun Belt Southern Miss

CUSA Western Kentucky

Frisco
Dec. 23, 2025

G5 Texas State

G5 Central Michigan

Hawai’i
Dec. 24, 2025

MWC Hawaii

American/Other California

GameAbove Sports
Dec. 26, 2025

Big Ten 8 Minnesota

MAC Western Michigan

Rate
Dec. 26, 2025

Big Ten 7 Northwestern

Big 12 6 Kansas State

First Responder
Dec. 26, 2025

Open Fresno State

Open Arkansas State

Military
Dec. 27, 2025

American Navy

ACC 8 Louisville

Pinstripe
Dec. 27, 2025

Big Ten 6 Penn State

ACC 5-7 Pittsburgh

Fenway
Dec. 27, 2025

ACC 9 Duke

American East Carolina

Arizona
Dec. 27, 2025

MWC Boise State

MAC 2 Ohio

Pop-Tarts
Dec. 27, 2025

Big 12 3 BYU

ACC 2-4 Virginia

New Mexico
Dec. 27, 2025

MWC New Mexico

Open Washington State

Gator
Dec. 27, 2025

ACC 2-4 Miami

SEC 3-8 Vanderbilt

Texas
Dec. 27, 2025

Big 12 4 Iowa State

SEC 3-8 Missouri

Birmingham
Dec. 29, 2025

ACC/SEC/Open Tulane

SEC/ACC/Open NC State

Independence
Dec. 30, 2025

Big 12 7 TCU

CUSA/Sun Belt Louisiana Tech

Music City
Dec. 30, 2025

Big Ten 5 Illinois

SEC 3-8 LSU

Alamo
Dec. 30, 2025

Big 12 2 Houston

Pac-12 2 USC

ReliaQuest
Dec. 31, 2025

Big Ten 3 Iowa

SEC 3-8 Texas

Sun
Dec. 31, 2025

ACC 5-7 Clemson

Pac-12 5 Arizona State

Citrus
Dec. 31, 2025

Big Ten 2 Michigan

SEC 2 Tennessee

Las Vegas
Dec. 31, 2025

Pac-12 3 Utah

Big Ten 4 Nebraska

Armed Forces
Jan. 2, 2026

Open UNLV

American UTSA

Liberty
Jan. 2, 2026

Big 12 5 Cincinnati

SEC 3-8 Memphis

Duke’s Mayo
Jan. 2, 2026

SEC 3-8 Kentucky

ACC 5-7 Wake Forest

Holiday
Jan. 2, 2026

ACC 2-4 Georgia Tech

Pac-12 4 Washington

Bahamas/TBD
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MAC Toledo

CUSA FIU

Nov 28, 2025

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