The month now ranks second-warmest with an average temperature of 67.9 degrees, just behind the record of 68.2 set in 1927 and slightly ahead of the 67.8 average from 1922. This weekend will contribute to a warmer-than-normal average on Saturday and then a cooler-than-normal average on Sunday.
A weak disturbance moved into Texas on Friday, bringing increasing clouds and a few spotty showers late in the day. It will keep rain chances in the forecast for Saturday as well, especially east of Interstate 35, where moisture levels are highest.
After a cloudy morning and a few scattered showers across Central Texas, we’ll see a little break in the activity around lunchtime before more rain and storms pick up as a cold front travels across Austin. Temperatures will jump into the 70s with a breezy south wind, gusting up to 25 mph.
“Better chances for thunderstorms will be seen during the daytime Saturday as instability builds over the Coastal Plains,” the Austin/San Antonio bureau of the National Weather Service wrote in a weather bulletin on Friday. “A strong cold front will move across the area Saturday night into early Sunday morning bringing the coldest temperatures of the season to South Central Texas.”
With warm temperatures in place Saturday and a significant cooldown arriving Sunday, the clash of these opposing weather systems could produce a few strong or severe storms along the frontal boundary. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Central and East Texas under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Saturday afternoon and evening.
Some storms also may produce locally heavy rainfall, especially east of Austin, where the Weather Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding.
However, during this time of year, any rain is beneficial, especially in Austin. November typically brings about 3 inches of rainfall, but so far, we’ve collected just over half an inch. According to the latest Drought Monitor, Travis County remains split between moderate and severe drought conditions.
Behind the front, gusty north winds will usher in colder air, with temperatures dipping into the 30s on Sunday morning. North winds between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph, will make it feel even colder. Winds will decrease during the afternoon, but temperatures will only warm into the 40s and 50s under cloudy skies.
Cooler-than-normal temperatures and north winds will continue into early next week, with some lingering rain showers on Monday and Tuesday.
