It hasn’t happened in one inspirational moment. There has been no coming-of-age performance to mark the occasion. But in the aftermath of Arsenal’s entirely predictable dismantling of Tottenham Hotspur last weekend the realisation seemed to dawn on everyone at once: Arsenal are going to win the Premier League title.
The crystallisation of this near certainty results from dozens of variables, a set of intangibles that is best read as a general vibe; as the unmistakable feeling that this squad, with this manager, in this kit, carries the energy of Premier League champions and future Arsenal legends.
That is a new feeling, and it’s one you can tell is felt by the players themselves as they breeze past opponents, laser focused but supremely confident.
Any Arsenal supporters reading this will wince. There have been too many near misses to let hope in. But this might be the final week when that holds true, when there are any doubters left about where the Premier League title is heading in May.
If Arsenal beat Chelsea then it is practically done. Certainly Enzo Maresca’s team, as young and inexperienced and lopsided as they are, stand zero chance of recovering a nine-point deficit to a team as strong as Arsenal.
Liverpool we know are out of the race, leaving only Manchester City, who have already lost four games this season. The average number of defeats of a Premier League champion over the last 10 years is 3.8.
The most losses by a title winner in that time was Man City’s six in 2020/21, and although Pep Guardiola’s side actually came back from a lower points total after 12 games (20 points then, 22 now) the two seasons aren’t really comparable.
That was the weird, ghostly 2020/21 Covid year, when nobody really excelled and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s Manchester United finished runners-up on 74 points.
Man City are out of rope. Even one more defeat before the half-way mark and Guardiola would probably concede his team are not going to hit the 85-point mark.
Arsenal seem destined to go beyond that, and certainly if they end a tricky week with a derby win at Stamford Bridge the psychological blow to their title rivals will be so big as to effectively end the race.
Once the gap grows large results are affected from both sides. Arsenal will be able to play without pressure, freeing them up to lean on a deep bench and get the job done, while Chelsea and Man City will see their levels drop slightly as the prize disappears from view.
But even this might be over-analysis of the state of things. Arsenal’s squad has a swagger and a stoicism that nobody else can match.
Of course, Chelsea could win on Sunday and cut the gap to just a single point, with Man City only four behind the leaders, creating the possibility of a wobble over the festive period that allows Guardiola’s side to begin reeling Arsenal in.
But it just doesn’t feel likely, not even after Chelsea’s victory against Barcelona on Tuesday evening, a result quickly followed by an equally impressive win for Arsenal over Bayern Munich.
It is difficult to imagine any doubt creeping into the Arsenal dressing room, difficult to imagine Maresca masterminding victory over a team that looks more or less perfect in every area.
That sense of invincibility, that intimidating aura, is new. It is what will power Arsenal to their first Premier League title in 20 years.
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