Chiefs-Cowboys takeaways: George Pickens, Dak Prescott spark win, boost playoff hopes – The Athletic
The Athletic has live coverage of NFL Week 13.
Dak Prescott and George Pickens weren’t going to let the Dallas Cowboys go down without a fight — not on Thanksgiving, and not with their playoff hopes hanging by a thread.
Prescott passed for 320 yards and two touchdowns, leading Dallas to a 31-28 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night. He took full advantage of his dominant receivers, as Pickens and CeeDee Lamb combined for 200 yards on 13 catches.
One play in particular stood out above the rest.
On third-and-8 and trailing the Chiefs by one point in the fourth quarter, Prescott hit Pickens on a short pass. Pickens whirled to shake a defender, found some open space and leaped over Trent McDuffie for a 39-yard gain. That set up a 3-yard touchdown pass to Javonte Williams that played a big role in sparking the Cowboys to the victory.
It was the third straight win for Dallas (6-5-1), which has seen its chances of making the postseason improve to 23 percent, according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator.
Kansas City (6-6) has lost three of its last four games and seen its playoff chances slip below 50 percent.
Cowboys defense has become a strength
It’s obviously more than just Quinnen Williams, but he’s the biggest reason Dallas’ defense has made this massive turnaround. Everything changed for the group when that trade was finalized. Stopping the Las Vegas Raiders isn’t all that impressive, but the eight consecutive stops against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday and now this performance against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are next level. Stunningly, the Cowboys have a defense that can get stops against just about any offense. No one could’ve expected that a month ago. — Jon Machota, Cowboys beat writer
Schedule setting up a run?
Since the NFL schedules were released, this current stretch for the Cowboys has stood out. They faced three consecutive games against the Eagles, Chiefs and Detroit Lions, all among the top Super Bowl favorites. Dallas has found a way to win the first two and has a great chance to win next Thursday night in Detroit. The offense is better than expected. The defense has become a real problem for opponents. It’s still possible that the Cowboys could miss the playoffs, but I doubt many teams want to play them if they make it into the mix. — Machota
Chiefs continue to fall short in clutch moments
Kansas City has spent most of the season behaving like one of the most unclutch NFL teams of all time. The Chiefs didn’t do much to change that narrative Thursday.
K.C.’s defense got early-down stops in the first half but failed on third downs, as Prescott played his best in third-and-long situations.
With the Chiefs trailing by a touchdown in the fourth quarter, they also were burned by their biggest drop of the game, as receiver Rashee Rice couldn’t hold onto a pass that hit him in both hands on third-and-8.
On a down-by-down basis, K.C. has played better than its 6-6 record indicates, but it’s also lost on the biggest snaps. It’s a trend that continued in a critical game in front of a primetime audience. — Jesse Newell, Chiefs beat writer
Losing the numbers game
Chiefs coach Andy Reid admits he determines his team’s fourth-down decisions by feel, but his intuition seemed to let him down in this one.
With the Chiefs trailing by three in the third quarter, Reid elected to punt on a fourth-and-4 from the Cowboys’ 44.
According to NFL analyst Ben Baldwin’s fourth-down bot, that single decision to punt instead of going for it reduced the Chiefs’ win probability from 52 percent to 45 percent. It’s difficult for that big of a swing to take place on a single coach’s decision.
The rest of the game only solidified why the Chiefs shouldn’t have willingly surrendered a possession. Dallas went field goal, touchdown, field goal on its next three drives, putting the game out of reach when K.C. was still trying to play catch-up. — Newell
The climb gets steeper
The Chiefs aren’t out of playoff contention, especially with a more manageable schedule coming up.
Things still became much more difficult following this latest setback on Thursday night.
According to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator, K.C.’s chances of reaching the postseason dropped from 61 percent to roughly 47 percent with this loss. The team’s odds of winning the division are also nearly gone, now down to 6 percent.
The good news for the Chiefs, as mentioned earlier, is that they should be heavy favorites in many of their upcoming games. Their remaining slate from here on out includes home games against the Houston Texans, the Los Angeles Chargers and the Denver Broncos, along with road contests against the Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders. — Newell
