Lando Norris remains the clear favourite to win the world championship in the final race of the season next week.
Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri cut his championship lead in today’s race but Norris is still guaranteed to win the title if he finishes on the podium at Yas Marina.
However Norris failed to finish on the podium in Losail today. If that happens again next week, Verstappen and Piastri’s chances of snatching the title away from him will suddenly look much more realistic.
Here’s how each driver can win the title in the final race of the season.
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How Norris can win the world championship
One more podium will make Norris championIf Norris finishes first, second or third he will win the championship regardless of where anyone else finishes.
If Norris finishes fourth or fifth he will win the championship if Verstappen does not win, regardless of where Piastri finishes.
If Norris finishes sixth or seventh he will win the championship if neither Verstappen nor Piastri wins.
If Norris finishes eighth he will win the championship if Verstappen does not finish in the top two and Piastri does not win.
If Norris finishes ninth he will win the championship if Verstappen does not finish in the top three and Piastri does not win.
If Norris finishes 10th or does not score he will win the championship if Verstappen does not finish in the top three and Piastri does not finish in the top two.
How Verstappen can win the world championship
If Verstappen finishes first he will win the championship if Norris does not finish in the top three, regardless of where Piastri finishes.
If Verstappen finishes second he will win the championship if Norris does not finish in the top six and Piastri does not win.
If Verstappen finishes third he will win the championship if Norris does not finish in the top eight and Piastri does not win.
Verstappen cannot win the championship by finishing fourth or lower.
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How Piastri can win the world championship
If Piastri finishes first he will win the championship if Norris does not finish in the top five, regardless of where Verstappen finishes.
If Piastri finishes second he will win the championship if Norris does not finish in the top eight, and Verstappen does not finish in the top three.
Piastri cannot win the championship by finishing third or lower.
Other outcomes
The above all assumes enough of the race distance is completed for full points to be awarded. If the race is shortened below 75%, the number of points awarded is cut.
In that scenario, Norris’s chances of winning the title would improve, as he holds the championship lead and fewer points would be awarded.
All the possible points outcomes under these much less likely scenarios can be checked using the Points Calculator:
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