Indianapolis Colts Start-Sit: Week 13 Fantasy Advice for Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, and Others
The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Indianapolis Colts players heading into their matchup with the Houston Texans to help you craft a winning lineup.
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Daniel Jones, QB
Daniel Jones was effective on Sunday in Kansas City, but he failed to reach 200 passing yards for the first time this season and failed to clear 20 rushing yards for the seventh time in an eight-game sample.
The chunk play of last week (48-yard completion to Ashton Dulin) came thanks to the pressure that Jonathan Taylor puts on opponents. He pulled back a handoff on a third-and-short situation, picking a part of a secondary that overcommitted to the run.
Things like that are how Jones can threaten the top 15 in any given week. Well, that and channeling 21 of 31 targets to his three primary receiving weapons (Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman, and Josh Downs).
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There are paths to success, but I said it when Indy went on their bye, and I’ll repeat it: I don’t have Jones ranked as a fantasy starter moving forward. This is obviously a tough matchup, and he still has two games with the opportunistic Jags on top of a Week 15 showdown in Seattle left on the schedule.
I’d rather piece together the position via streaming options than rely on Jones getting my fantasy team to the finish line.
Jonathan Taylor, RB
Taylor broke loose for a 27-yard run last week against the Chiefs. Still, his other 17 touches netted just 39 yards, a lack of efficiency that seemed borderline impossible after watching him put on a show in Berlin (286 yards and three scores on 35 touches against the Falcons).
We saw the Steelers sell out to stop JT back in Week 9 (14 carries for 45 yards) in their upset win, and this figures to be a theme as we approach the postseason: teams are going to ask Jones to beat them.
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Stopping Taylor, of course, is easier said than done. His post-contact numbers are historically good and up 59% from what he posted last season. It takes a special defense to execute the “stop Taylor at all costs” plan, and the Texans are on the short list of units that could pull it off.
They are the seventh-best unit at getting to the running back before he gets going downhill, and that’ll be the plan this week. If they can execute, Taylor will underwhelm, but I’m never going to project an outright slowing of the most productive back in the game. Even in a tough spot, JT is a tier 1 option in my eyes.
Alec Pierce, WR
Alec Pierce has an end zone target in consecutive games and a 26+ yard grab in six straight, but as the Jones profile trends down, Pierce’s ceiling/floor combination is at risk of cratering.
Even with Indianapolis Jones playing above his baseline for much of this season, this was the fourth time Pierce failed to reach three receptions. This is a nightmare matchup for the ceiling case (fourth fewest YPA on deep passes), and if the ceiling is a reach, the floor is far too low to trust.
I’ve got Pierce pegged as a leverage play in DFS on the main slate and nothing more. If he hits, great, but I don’t want my season-long team riding on a profile like this against the Texans, unless I’m down big entering the weekend.
Josh Downs, WR
Josh Downs isn’t lineup worthy, and there’s a chance he doesn’t need to be rostered.
Over the past two games, he’s turned eight targets into just 13 receiving yards, and he’s a clear No. 3 option in a run-centric offense that has a quarterback regressing in terms of the production numbers we care about.
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That’s about as bad as it gets.
I’m a believer in the talent of Downs and can already tell you that I’ll be higher than the industry on him this summer (it’s far too early to sell on a 24-year-old that has some good tape out there). Still, I’m not the least bit confident that we see things turn around for this version of the Colts, and that has him trending in the direction of a player that can be cut for quality depth elsewhere.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR
The Colts picked off Patrick Mahomes to put them in scoring position to open their second drive, one that finished with a six-yard touchdown for Michael Pittman Jr..
At the time, it felt like we might have a big game brewing, but he finished with a 5-27-1 stat line, underwhelming given the hot start.
We’ve seen some cracks in the armor recently for Jones, but it really hasn’t mattered for his WR1. Pittman has 14+ expected points and 13+ real points in four of his past five games, thriving in a role that has him catching 80% of his targets that come short of the sticks.
With defenses (rightfully so) terrified about Taylor tearing them apart, Pittman’s ability to win quickly off the line of scrimmage profiles as a sustainable path to fantasy goodness, even in a tough matchup like this.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 13 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
The Colts aren’t exactly like the Seahawks, and I’d never say that Pittman is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but Seattle possesses a run game that is also critical to limit, and when they faced these Texans, JSN saw 48.3% of Sam Darnold’s passes thrown his way.
A handful of catches makes for a safe floor, and while the touchdown equity is lower this week than others, Pittman is the type of receiver that can push 15 PPR points without the benefit of a score.
Tyler Warren, TE
It felt like the Chiefs did a good job with Tyler Warren on Sunday, and he still finished with seven targets (26.3% reception share and 22.6% target share).
That’s the difference between a good and a great asset at the position.
The rookie has cleared nine PPR points in nine of 11 games this season, and I see no reason to expect anything different moving forward. Over his past three games, the Colts have adjusted the routes of their standout rookie, further elevating his floor.
- Weeks 4-8: 7.4-yard aDOT
- Weeks 9-12: 3.1-yard aDOT
At this point, a handful of catches feels like a baseline, and that’s more than 90% of the TE pool can claim. He’ll struggle to keep up with Trey McBride at the tippy top of the TE board based on his importance in Arizona. Still, I’ll take my chances with Warren against just about anyone at the position after that, and that’s tremendous value based on the price you paid this summer.
