Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
Banks will continue to lead
Scotiabank strategist Hugo Ste-Marie expects domestic banks to continue to outperform in 2026,
“Canadian banks are up 31.7 per cent year-to-date – an outstanding year so far. Banks will deliver their fiscal Q4 results this week, with Scotiabank kicking things off on December 2. Our colleague Mike Rizvanovic expects ‘another solid quarter, helped by still-elevated capital markets, stable to slightly rising margins, expense growth moderation, and a healthy amount of share repurchases as the group continues to organically accrete excess capital, all of which could move forward expectations modestly higher post quarter.’”
“We believe that if profitability is progressing as expected toward (or exceeding) ROE targets, the sector can continue to outperform in 2026. … Despite the solid gains, the year-over-year outperformance is far from being stretched from a historical perspective”
Mr. Rizvanovic has “sector outperform” ratings on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T), National Bank of Canada (NA-T) and Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T).
“Canadian banks relative returns (Scotiabank)” – (chart) Bluesky
All time highs for copper
RBC Capital Markets analyst Sam Crittenden highlighted new all-time highs for the copper price,
“Copper surged to a new all-time high today, driven by tightening supply, optimistic price forecasts, and unexpected trading disruptions on the CME’s Comex Exchange last week. The rally followed a key industry gathering in Shanghai last week, where miners, smelters, and traders expressed growing concerns over production disruptions at critical operations worldwide. Adding to the market volatility, trading in copper futures on the CME experienced a chaotic hours-long halt on Friday. In the precious metals market, silver notably rose to a fresh all-time high on Friday, driven in part by the trading outage on the CME. Spot prices surged to a record $55.66 per ounce, with the rally likely fueled by the thin liquidity in the silver market, coupled with ongoing supply tightness following the recent squeeze in the London silver market. Canadian PM Mark Carney unveiled a series of measures to support the country’s steel industry, which has been struggling under the weight of 50-per-cent tariffs on exports to the US. Key actions include reducing tariff-free quotas for foreign steel imports, and imposing a 25-per-cent tariff on steel-derivative products like wind towers and fasteners”
Mr. Crittenden has “outperform” ratings on Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM-T), Marimaca Copper Corp. (MARI-T), First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM-T), Capstone Copper Corp. (CS-T) and Arizona Sonoran Copper Co. Inc. (ASCU-T).
Business development still sluggish
BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic provided detail on domestic economic growth,
“Through the choppy quarters and flattering recent headline results in Canadian GDP, the economy is grinding out below-potential growth. Real GDP has now expanded 1.4 per cent in the past year, through all the ups and down of the trade dispute, easing cycle and change of government. With trade carving into activity over that period, final domestic demand has held up better and grown a firmer 1.7 per cent. Even Q3’s tough print (down 0.1 per cent) followed a robust 3.5-per-cent jump in Q2. The Canadian household continues to lay support for final domestic demand, adding almost a full percentage point to overall real GDP growth in the past year. With a wave of mortgage renewals still incoming, household discretionary spending should remain contained in the year ahead, but continue to grow. Residential investment remains very quiet with prolonged housing corrections in some major centres. But we’ve now seen activity come off the lows given a mix of rental construction, renovations and more transaction activity. Business investment (nonresidential, M&E and intellectual property) remains the laggard, adding precisely zero to growth in the past year. That’s while the same category is adding large chunks to U.S. growth courtesy of the AI rush”
Bluesky post of the day
A new book argues that personal finance is “rigged,” with fees, traps, and complex products that saddle ordinary consumers while the wealthy reap the benefits
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— Bloomberg News (@bloomberg.com) December 1, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Diversion
“The Films and Shows You Should Be Streaming in December 2025” – Gizmodo
