Nov 30, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Stars goaltender Casey DeSmith (1) and center Wyatt Johnston (53) celebrate the Stars victory over the Ottawa Senators at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
I hope everyone had an excellent holiday weekend.
Yeah, I know it was football straight around the clock, but hey, they played hockey too! I really need to get my NHL picks success rate up, so let’s start that rebound tonight!
NHL Season Stats: 3-15 (-11.45 Units)
Dallas Stars at New York Rangers
Pick: Stars ML (-125 HardRock)
I’m a Rangers fan and I just do not understand this price. The Blueshirts have the worst home record in the NHL at 2-8-1. They’ve been outscored 34-17 and have a league-worst 41.69% expected goal share on home ice.
And it’s not getting any better. They lost 4-1 at MSG on Saturday to Tampa Bay — not shocking because the Lightning are very good — but they lost the xG battle 6.88 to 1.85, despite playing from behind all afternoon.
Now they have to play without arguably their best skater, Adam Fox. He and partner Vladislav Gavrikov lead all defensive pairs with 449:34 of 5v5 ice time, and their 59.85% xGF% ranks 5th in the league among the 114 D pairs with at least 100 minutes played.
Meanwhile, the Stars are excellent wherever they play — but especially on the road, where they’ve gone a league-best 9-1-3, outscoring opponents 49-23. They’re also healthier than they’ve been in weeks. Matt Duchene and Thomas Harley are still out, but all the other key players are back.
As long as Igor Shesterkin is in net, the Rangers can beat anyone. But he needs help, and this is a very top-heavy team now missing a crucial piece.
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Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers
Pick: Wild ML (+140 ESPN BET)
The Wild are the second-hottest team in the NHL behind Colorado, going 11-1-2 since November 1st. They outscored opponents 43-24 in November, thanks largely to a pair of red-hot goaltenders.
Backup Jesper Wallstedt is absolutely on fire with a 96.7% save percentage and 14.29 GSAA in 369.18 November minutes — that’s roughly 2.32 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes — and he’s the confirmed starter.
With Edmonton, it’s just tough to know what you’re getting on a nightly basis. They got crushed by Dallas 8-3 last Tuesday, then turned around and blanked Seattle 4-0 on Saturday. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can explode at any moment, and they’ll need to show more consistency if they want to lock down a playoff spot.
The goaltending contrast couldn’t be more extreme:
Stuart Skinner: 87.6% save%, -5.80 GSAA in November
Calvin Pickard: 84.8% save%, -6.27 GSAA
Right now the Oilers are stuck in a seven-team scrum for two Wild Card spots. I’ll roll with the hotter, more consistent team at plus money.
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