SSC Napoli vs Cagliari Calcio: Preview and Prediction

Napoli will hope to secure another step towards a Coppa Italia title when they face Cagliari on Wednesday.
Reigning Serie A champions SSC Napoli return to Coppa Italia action on Wednesday as they welcome Cagliari to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in a Last 16 clash. With their eyes firmly set on a seventh Coppa Italia title, the Partenopei are eager to make a deep run in the competition, but they will face a tough test against a determined Cagliari side.
Since the November international break, Napoli have rediscovered their old form, winning three straight games in all competitions, including important victories over Atalanta, Qarabag in the Champions League, and most recently, AS Roma in the Derby del Sole. Antonio Conte’s tactical switch and emphasis on solid defensive play have been key to their resurgence. Napoli have conceded only one goal in their last three matches, underscoring their newfound defensive resilience after a rocky patch earlier in the season.
In a highly competitive Serie A race, Napoli’s 1-0 win over Roma propelled them back into the thick of the title fight, as they sit level on points with AC Milan, the new league leaders. The victory at Stadio Olimpico marked a gritty performance, with David Neres scoring the only goal of the game in the first half. While they had to absorb significant pressure in the second half, the defensive structure held firm, and Conte expressed satisfaction with his injury-hit squad, who have shown great character in recent weeks.
As Napoli shift their focus to the Coppa Italia, they are aiming to lift the trophy for the first time in six years, although they are no strangers to success in this competition, having won six titles overall. Their entry into the Last 16 stage, following their involvement in Europe, means they enter the tournament later than most teams. Their sights are set on a potential clash with Fiorentina or Como in the quarter-finals, which will require another focused performance against Cagliari.
Cagliari, on the other hand, come into this tie after a disappointing 2-1 loss to Juventus in Serie A. The Sardinians have been enduring a difficult season, still battling to find consistency after narrowly avoiding relegation last year. They have endured a tough run of form and currently sit just above the relegation zone. Having progressed through two rounds of the Coppa Italia, Cagliari’s Last 16 berth this season has been hard-earned, defeating Virtus Entella in round one and Frosinone in September to set up this difficult encounter.
Despite their troubles, Cagliari can take some solace in their historical success in the Coppa Italia, having reached the final in 1969. However, their record against Napoli in recent years has been dismal, with Cagliari winning just one of their last 29 Serie A encounters with the Partenopei. Their most recent meeting came in September, where Napoli triumphed 1-0 at the Maradona. This extended Cagliari’s winless run against Napoli to nine matches, a stat they will be desperate to change, although expectations are low given the recent struggles in Serie A.
Cagliari’s primary goal for this match is simply to make a contest of it, with their sights firmly set on top-flight survival rather than cup glory. Yet, facing a Napoli side brimming with quality, confidence, and a growing belief that they can still mount a challenge for silverware, this cup clash presents a daunting task. The Hard Tackle takes a look at how the clubs could line up on the night and what tactics they might employ.
Team News & Tactics
SSC Napoli
Napoli enter this Coppa Italia tie with a lengthy injury list that continues to frustrate head coach Antonio Conte. With crucial fixtures against Juventus and Benfica looming, Conte is expected to rotate heavily to protect his core starters. The midfield remains the most depleted area, as Billy Gilmour, Frank Anguissa, and Kevin De Bruyne are all sidelined due to respective injuries. Spanish wing-back Miguel Gutiérrez is also struggling with an ankle issue and is unlikely to feature.
In addition, striker Romelu Lukaku and first-choice goalkeeper Alex Meret remain unavailable, further limiting Conte’s options in key areas. These absences open the door for several fringe players to receive valuable minutes, with Eljif Elmas and Lorenzo Lucca expected to step into the starting XI. Conte’s selection will therefore balance the need for rest with the demands of maintaining Napoli’s momentum across competitions.
Napoli are expected to continue in their 3-4-2-1 system, a structure that has restored balance and discipline to the team in recent weeks. In goal, Vanja Milinkovic-Savic should start in the absence of Alex Meret. The back three is likely to feature Gianluca Marianucci on the right, Amir Rrahmani in the central role, and Juan Jesus on the left, providing a blend of experience and aerial solidity.
The wing-back positions could see rotation, with Pasquale Mazzocchi operating on the right flank and Leonardo Spinazzola taking up the left-sided role, offering pace and width in transitional play. In central midfield, Stanislav Lobotka will anchor the team’s possession structure, partnered by Eljif Elmas, who will be tasked with providing forward thrust and ball-carrying in the absence of more established midfielders.
In the two supporting attacking roles, Matteo Politano and Noa Lang are expected to link midfield with attack, drifting into pockets of space to create overloads and supply chances. Leading the line will likely be Lorenzo Lucca, who will attempt to use his physical presence and link-up play to trouble a compact Cagliari defence.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Milinkovic-Savic; Marianucci, Rrahmani, Jesus; Mazzocchi, Lobotka, Elmas, Spinazzola; Politano, Lang; Lucca
Cagliari Calcio
With survival in Serie A the club’s overwhelming priority, Fabio Pisacane is expected to rotate his squad for this Coppa Italia trip to Naples. One of the major storylines concerns midfielder Michael Folorunsho, who may not feature as he is on loan from Napoli, leaving Pisacane to consider alternatives in central midfield.
Cagliari’s injury list remains significant. Andrea Belotti continues his long-term recovery and is unavailable for selection. The defensive unit is also weakened, as Yerry Mina remains out with persistent muscular issues, while attacking options Ze Pedro and Luca Mazzitelli are still sidelined and not expected to return in time for this tie. These absences limit rotation options and force Pisacane to rely on squad players to compete against the reigning champions.
Despite the challenges, Cagliari will aim to remain compact and disciplined, hoping to frustrate a heavily rotated Napoli side and exploit transition moments when possible. Cagliari are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, a structure designed to maintain defensive stability while allowing quick transitions through the wide areas and the two supporting attackers.
In goal, Elia Caprile should continue as the last line of defence. The back three will likely be composed of Gabriele Zappa on the right side of defence, Juan Rodriguez anchoring the central role, and Adam Obert on the left, offering mobility and cover across the back line.
The wing-back roles may feature Alessandro Di Pardo on the right and Riyad Idrissi on the left, both tasked with providing width in attack while tracking Napoli’s wing-backs defensively. In central midfield, Matteo Prati will operate as the deep distributor, while Michael Folorunsho, should he be given permission to play, adds dynamism and physical presence in the middle of the pitch.
Further ahead, Gianluca Gaetano and Zito Luvumbo will occupy the supporting attacking positions, drifting between the lines to spark counterattacks and link play with the lone striker. Leading the line is expected to be veteran forward Leonardo Pavoletti, whose aerial presence and experience will be crucial in relieving pressure and threatening Napoli’s rotated defence.
Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Caprile; Zappa, Rodriguez, Obert; Di Pardo, Prati, Folorunsho, Idrissi; Gaetano, Luvumbo; Pavoletti
Key Stats
- Napoli have lost only one of their last 29 meetings with Cagliari across all competitions, winning 20 of those encounters. Their most recent defeat to the Sardinian side came well over a decade ago.
- Cagliari have failed to win at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in 23 consecutive visits, conceding two or more goals in the majority of those matches. Their lone away victory dates back to 2007.
- Napoli are six-time Coppa Italia champions and have reached at least the quarter-finals in four of the last six seasons.
- Cagliari enter this match on a nine-game winless streak across all competitions, scoring only six goals during that period while conceding 17.
- Since the November international break, Napoli have conceded just one goal in their last three matches, including clean sheets against Qarabag and Roma.
Player to Watch
Lorenzo Lucca
Embed from Getty Images
Lorenzo Lucca steps into this Coppa Italia tie as one of the most intriguing figures for Napoli. With Antonio Conte expected to rotate heavily amid a mounting injury list and a demanding fixture schedule, Lucca is likely to receive a rare opportunity to lead the line, an opportunity he must seize.
The tall, athletic Italian striker offers a completely different profile to Napoli’s usual centre-forwards. His aerial dominance, physical hold-up play and ability to bring midfielders into the game make him a valuable tactical option, especially in a cup match where Napoli may face a compact, deep-lying Cagliari side.
Despite limited minutes this season, Lucca has shown flashes of intelligent movement inside the box and an impressive work rate without the ball. This match presents a chance for him to reaffirm his value to Conte, particularly with Romelu Lukaku still sidelined and squad rotation essential.
If Napoli manage to break down Cagliari on Wednesday night, expect Lorenzo Lucca to be at the heart of the action, either finishing chances himself or creating space for supporting players such as Matteo Politano and Noa Lang.
Prediction
SSC Napoli 2-0 Cagliari Calcio
Napoli come into this Coppa Italia clash in far better form, with renewed confidence after three straight wins and a noticeable uptick in their defensive solidity since switching to Antonio Conte’s preferred 3-4-2-1 structure. Even with heavy rotation expected, the champions possess considerably more depth and quality than a Cagliari side battling to stay afloat in Serie A.
Cagliari’s away record, particularly in Naples, is a major concern. One win in their last 29 meetings with Napoli, combined with a nine-match winless streak, paints the picture of a team low on belief and struggling to keep opponents out. Rotation may give them fresh legs, but not necessarily the tools to withstand Napoli’s pressure.
With players like Lorenzo Lucca eager to prove themselves, and Napoli’s wing-backs expected to dominate territory, the hosts should still control the proceedings even if they are not at full strength.



