Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Indiana Pacers Over 235.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Altitude
The Nuggets are just too banged up to play much defense right now, especially with their best defender Aaron Gordon out for an extended period. As a result they’ve been allowing 122.8 PPG the past 8 games, but this team that’s still best in the league for offensive efficiency has caused those 8 games to average a wild 247.6 points.
So the opponent doesn’t seem to matter much as long as Denver is one side of the equation, and I happen to think Indiana is a team on the upswing offensively after getting a couple of key players back. The Pacers will push tempo in this game to wear down the shorthanded Nuggets, and I think that results in another game with plenty of points.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Michael Porter Jr Over 24.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on YES
This number comes in right in line with Porter’s season average of 24.9 PPG, but I don’t think it’s accounting enough for the situation he’s in tonight. The Nets are short on true scoring talent with Cam Thomas sidelined, so MPJ is able to let his ballhog flag fly. That was evident on Monday night in his return from a short injury, taking the most shots he has all season and setting a new season high with 35 points. Porter has gone over this number in his past 5 fully healthy games, and with Chicago playing at the league’s second-fastest pace he’ll get even more opportunity so I think he cashes in.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Gardner-Webb/Queens Over 161.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
The analytics gurus make this game pretty much right in line with the total here, but I’m not buying that we’ll see anyone play defense tonight. These are two of the bottom-20 teams in the country for adjusted defensive efficiency, and while the offense isn’t always pretty, I think there are some matchup edges that will lead to points.
This Gardner-Webb team struggles offensively but plays fast and takes a ton of three’s, which is exactly what you want against another porous defense. And Queens is actually pretty good offensively, with plenty of shooters from deep, but they’ve never had the opportunity to play such a horrendous defensive team that plays this fast. I think that brings out a completely different style of game than either of them have played so far this season, and sends this one over the big number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Alcorn St/Iowa St Over 150.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
My Cyclones looked impressive in Vegas last week, and now it’s time for the encore against another cupcake. TJ Otzelberger loves to schedule these cream puff schools and loves to blow them out, but the market has adjusted too well and I’m not comfortable laying 40 points no matter how bad Alcorn State is. To be clear, they’re really bad, but an incoming blowout probably leads to more points than expected in this spot.
Iowa State is going to score at will in this game, especially on run-outs as they’re the best in the country at forcing turnovers and Alcorn commits the 4th-most nationally. But the Braves will have to counter somehow, and that should be from beyond the arc where they’re actually a serviceable offense. I’ve noticed some leakiness in ISU’s perimeter defense this season and it bears out in the numbers as they’re 188th in three-point percentage defense despite such a good defense overall. If Alcorn is knocking some of those down they’ll contribute enough points here to push this over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) NC State/Auburn Over 164.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:15 PM CT on ESPN
This game should feature high level offense from both teams, and at the pace I’m expecting them to play this total might be far too low. It’s mostly in line with metrics projections, but has ticked up on smart money seeing two teams in the top-12 nationally for adjusted offensive efficiency that can score at will. Especially NC State who already has 4 outputs of 94 or more points this season, and is shooting it extremely well from deep in Will Wade’s first year.
The Wolfpack have several elite shooters that have put them 4th nationally in three-point percentage, and should be able to exploit an Auburn defense that just hasn’t been consistent with Steven Pearl taking over for his dad. But the Tigers are great at getting to the rim with Tahaad Pettiford, and should carve up a weak interior defense. These teams are more than willing to run and look for quick shots, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see both squads approach 90 points in this one.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 29-36 (-3.04 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
