Early ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ reactions are euphoric: What does that mean for its awards odds?
The social media embargo on reactions to James Cameron‘s third Avatar movie, subtitled Fire and Ash, lifted last night after the first big batch of screenings, and the tweets were as breathless as a sky person trying to appreciate Pandora’s fresh air.
You should seek out the reactions for yourself from the writers of your choosing, but the gist falls along familiar lines for the first wave of social media responses to a franchise movie — a Cameron-directed one in particular. A visual feast! He’s done it again! Never bet against Jimmy Boy! Payakan is in it!
Take a slightly closer look at the reactions, and you may notice some recurring minor notes in the fanfare. Too long! Too similar to The Way of Water! Spider is in it!
But those are just the initial knee-jerk reactions when readers are hungriest for a hot take and critics can get their first crack at the joke everybody will be making on their Letterboxd two weeks from now. What are they saying with their Oscar predictions?
With fewer than 24 hours having passed since the embargo lifted, Avatar: Fire and Ash is down in its Best Picture nomination odds on Gold Derby. It’s lost 1 percent in combined predictions, but — somewhat unexpectedly — it’s up 5 percent with experts on the site. In both cases, the film is currently predicted to occupy the No. 9 slot in the 10-film Best Picture field.
Combined Predictions
Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay Best Casting Best Cinematography Best Costume Design Best Film Editing Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Production Design Best Score Best Sound Best Visual Effects Best Animated Feature Best International Film
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20.
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
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28.
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
29.
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37.
38.
Father, Mother, Sister, Brother
39.
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41.
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46.
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48.
49.
50.
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
51.
The Long Walk 200
Lionsgate
52.
Rebecca Zlotowski
Earl Gibson III/Deadline
53.
Christy
Black Bear
54.
Anemone
Focus
55.
Dead Man’s Wire
Row K
56.
Eternity
A24
57.
BENTONVILLE, ARKANSAS – JUNE 21: Eric Lin attends the “Rosemead” screening during the 11th Annual Bentonville Film Festival led by Geena Davis on June 21, 2025 in Bentonville, Arkansas. (Photo by Jason Davis/Getty Images for Bentonville Film Festival)
Jason Davis/Getty Images
58.
The Summer Book
Music Box
59.
The Choral
SPC
60.
Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight
SPC
Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight
61.
40 Acres
Magnolia
62.
The Lost Bus
Apple
63.
Peter Hujar’s Day
Janus / Sideshow
64.
La Grazia
Mubi
65.
A Little Prayer
Music Box
66.
Tuner
Black Bear
67.
Bad Apples
Republic
68.
The Actor
Neon
69.
Pillion
A24
70.
The Plague
Independent
71.
Lucky Lu
WME
72.
Ella McCay
20th Century
73.
The Roses
Searchlight
74.
In Your Dreams
Netflix
75.
Highest 2 Lowest
Apple
76.
The Chronology of Water
The Forge
77.
Last Days
Vertical
78.
Good Fortune
Lionsgate
Expert Predictions
Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay Best Casting Best Cinematography Best Costume Design Best Film Editing Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Production Design Best Score Best Sound Best Visual Effects Best Animated Feature Best International Film
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14.
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18.
19.
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
20.
21.
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27.
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29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
34.
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38.
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42.
43.
44.
45.
Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
Tuner
Black Bear
52.
Bad Apples
Republic
53.
The Actor
Neon
54.
Pillion
A24
55.
The Plague
Independent
56.
Lucky Lu
WME
57.
Ella McCay
20th Century
58.
The Mastermind
MUBI
59.
The Phoenician Scheme 200
Focus Features
60.
The Roses
Searchlight
61.
In Your Dreams
Netflix
62.
Song Sung Blue
Sarah Shatz/Focus Features
63.
The History of Sound
MUBI
64.
Highest 2 Lowest
Apple
65.
Twinless
Lionsgate / Roadside
66.
Hedda
Prime Video
67.
Father Mother Sister Brother
MUBI
Father, Mother, Sister, Brother
68.
The Chronology of Water
The Forge
69.
Eddington
A24
70.
Nouvelle Vague
Netflix
71.
Last Days
Vertical
72.
Roofman
Paramount
73.
Eleanor the Great
SPC
74.
Good Fortune
Lionsgate
75.
Caught Stealing
Sony
76.
Black Bag 200
Focus Features
77.
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
Sony
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
78.
Sirat
Neon
Over on the Golden Globes predictions, the Best Drama Film odds are faring a little worse in combined odds (down 2 percent), while the expert percentage did the inverse (up 2 percent). The combined predictions have Fire and Ash just outside the six-film field, while the experts have the threequel hanging on in the No. 6 slot.
Combined Predictions
Golden Globes Film Nominations 2026
Best Film Drama Best Film Drama Actress Best Film Drama Actor Best Film Comedy/Musical Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor Best Film Supp. Actress Best Film Supp. Actor Best Film Director Best Film Screenplay Best Animated Feature Best Non-English Film Best Score
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6.
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9.
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11.
12.
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
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16.
17.
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25.
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27.
28.
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30.
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33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
47.
48.
Expert Predictions
Golden Globes Film Nominations 2026
Best Film Drama Best Film Drama Actress Best Film Drama Actor Best Film Comedy/Musical Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor Best Film Supp. Actress Best Film Supp. Actor Best Film Director Best Film Screenplay Best Animated Feature Best Non-English Film Best Score
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13.
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
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17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
38.
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41.
42.
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44.
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48.
Now, one of those metrics may be more telling about the quality of the movie itself, since it’s much more likely that experts are reacting to actually having seen the movie, while users are left to interpreting the online consensus. Both can be informative when it comes to award prognosticating, but if you’re interested in assessing the film, one is probably more substantial than the other.
If this is all a little opaque, there’s some good news. The full review embargo lifts the morning of Dec. 12, and — even better! — the movie itself opens on Dec. 19, when you’ll be able to judge its Best Picture odds for yourself and make the same joke on Letterboxd that critics made two weeks before.
