Follow The Athletic’s live build-up to tomorrow’s 2026 World Cup draw.
The World Cup draw is almost here, so we can really start getting excited about the tournament next summer.
There are technically 64 teams in the draw: 42 have definitely qualified, then there are 16 competing for four places from Europe, and six from the other confederations battling it out for two places in the intercontinental play-offs.
This is about the time, with the whole competition about to be mapped out in front of us, when we can start thinking about who might win the whole thing. So we have taken the not inconsiderable task of ranking, from one to 64, which teams look like the most likely to be on that podium in New Jersey on July 19.
A few of these rankings might look a bit odd, because some teams yet to qualify have been placed higher than others that have, but this is an assessment of the teams’ quality: realistically, the 17th-best team in Europe is going to be better than the best team from Oceania.
You will all have your own opinions — feel free to share them in the comments. But think of this as a guide to how the tournament might pan out, rather than a deeply serious prediction. Exciting, isn’t it?
1. Argentina
FIFA ranking: 2
Not only are Argentina the reigning champions from Qatar in 2022, but they also won back-to-back Copa America titles in 2021 and 2024. For recent pedigree, can we really look much further? With the same manager, Lionel Scaloni, and the same GOAT, Lionel Messi, their status as favourites is deserved — albeit Messi really is getting on a bit. He will turn 39 during the tournament.
Lionel Messi lifts the Copa America trophy in 2024 (Miguel Rodriguez/Anadolu via Getty Images)
2. Spain
FIFA ranking: 1
It’s a little odd to think Spain weren’t really many people’s top choice to win Euro 2024, but as the tournament progressed, it became clearer and clearer they were the best team in Germany. Their incredible array of young, attacking talent is still maturing, which is pretty terrifying for everyone else. It will take some effort to stop them.
3. France
FIFA ranking: 3
Hmm, on paper, France should probably win it? They arguably have the strongest XI in the tournament and their whole squad is strewn with enviable riches, especially in their Kylian Mbappe-led attack. Didier Deschamps’ task, in his final tournament before stepping down, is to knit it all together, but that didn’t happen at Euro 2024 when dreary France never convinced.
4. England
FIFA ranking: 4
Years of disappointment mean English fans can find it difficult to believe they’re among the favourites for the World Cup. But speak to people from any other country and they will tell you Thomas Tuchel’s side are right up there, and rightly so: their results were flawless in qualifying, they possess great depth, have a Champions League-winning manager and reached two finals in their past three tournaments.
Harry Kane and England have been beaten finalists at the past two European Championships (Zhizhao Wu/Getty Images)
5. Brazil
FIFA ranking: 5
Brazil are overdue a World Cup win… their last one was so long ago, it was when original Ronaldo had a quarter of a haircut. After a chaotic qualifying campaign, can we really expect them to challenge, or will it be another early exit against European opposition? Manager Carlo Ancelotti, a serial winner, could be their trump card.
6. Netherlands
FIFA ranking: 7
It almost feels like the Netherlands having an incredibly strong team has snuck up on us. They have reached the latter stages at tournaments in recent years without ever really having a group of players you could get excited about, but not anymore. Virgil van Dijk is the experienced outlier, but the rest are all in their mid-twenties and maturing at the same time. Expect big things.
7. Portugal
FIFA ranking: 6
The winners of the 2025 Nations League (plus the 2019 Nations League and the 2016 Euros) have never reached a World Cup final. Will 2026 be their year? The talent is there, but they’re a little down this list because question marks loom over Roberto Martinez’s tactics and how he uses that guy Cristiano Ronaldo, who will be 41 next summer.
Could Cristiano Ronaldo win the World Cup, a trophy that has eluded him, at 41? (Seb Daly/Sportsfile via Getty Images)
8. Germany
FIFA ranking: 9
The Germans have, by their standards, gone through a rough time in the past few years: they haven’t got past the quarter-finals in their past four tournaments, crashing out at the World Cup group stage in 2018 and 2022. But they do have some talent, and if they manage to solve their centre-forward problem, bet on them to look more like the Germany we know and fear from years gone by.
9. Morocco
FIFA ranking: 11
Perhaps a bit high, but the semi-finalists of 2022 were the only African nation to register a 100 per cent record in qualifying. They also have the same manager (Walid Regragui) and a similar spine to last time around. They host the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) this month, which will help inform us if they’re ready to become the World Cup’s first African winners.
10. Colombia
FIFA ranking: 13
The 2025 Copa America finalists finished third in South American qualifying, largely because of a six-game winless run/existential crisis, but they set themselves right towards the end and will go to the tournament with high hopes. James Rodriguez will lead them in what will probably be his last World Cup, but the danger man is surely Luis Diaz, in terrific form at Bayern Munich.
11. Croatia
FIFA ranking: 10
Croatia’s ageing squad may have more wrinkles than grandma’s favourite bedsheet, but it would be unwise to write them off, even if four of their first-choice midfield and attack are aged 34 and over. To be fair, they would probably like to be ignored; the underdog tag has helped them reach a final and a semi-final in the past two tournaments.
12. Uruguay
FIFA ranking: 16
As preparation goes, losing 5-1 to the United States in a recent friendly (admittedly missing some key players) is not ideal, nor is Marcelo Bielsa calling a press conference to confirm he won’t be resigning. But they qualified with relative ease, beating Argentina and Brazil (twice) along the way. They must surely perform better than last time, when they slunk out embarrassingly in the group stage.
13. Belgium
FIFA ranking: 8
With their golden generation either gone or lingering on (this will surely be 34-year-old Kevin De Bruyne’s last World Cup) Belgium remain a work in progress, nowhere near their FIFA-ranking glory days (you’ll never sing that, etc) but capable of causing damage, even just via the fast-emerging potential world star that is Jeremy Doku.
14. Egypt
FIFA ranking: 34
One of the World Cup’s great enigmas. The seven-time AFCON winners have only ever qualified for the World Cup three times, one of which was 1934, and they have never actually won a match at the finals, going out in the first round in 1990 and 2018. This time, they will hope Mohamed Salah goes into the tournament at full fitness, and with a little more support around him, maybe they can improve on their miserable historical record.
Mohamed Salah was carrying an injury going into the 2022 World Cup (Monirul Bhuiyan/AFP via Getty Images)
15. Senegal
FIFA ranking: 19
Senegal have twice reached the knockout stage (2002 quarter-finalists, last 16 in 2022) and you would expect the same again this time from a team familiar to Premier League viewers (including Sadio Mane, Nicolas Jackson, Iliman Ndiaye, Pape Matar Sarr and Ismaila Sarr). As England will tell you (they were beaten 3-1 at the City Ground in June), Senegal can play. A dark horse?
16. Ecuador
FIFA ranking: 23
Ecuador finished second behind Argentina in qualifying, particularly impressive given they had three points deducted for an administrative gaffe. Don’t expect many thrillers: their qualification was built on a miserly defence, conceding five goals in 18 games while only scoring 14. At a tournament where a good third place in your group should be enough to go through, they should fancy their chances.
17. South Korea
FIFA ranking: 22
If their big-name players turn up, South Korea are Asia’s best bet to go far in the competition, but that’s a huge if. Son Heung-min will be a tournament poster boy and he’ll need Hwang Hee-chan and Lee Kang-in to step up if South Korea are to repeat their heroics from 2002, when they made the most of home advantage to become the first Asian side to reach the semi-finals.
18. Norway
FIFA ranking: 29
Norway’s first World Cup since 1998 will see them be firmly installed as the resident ‘dark horses’ at this edition. They were a juggernaut in qualifying, winning eight from eight and scoring a whopping 37 goals (16 of which came from Erling Haaland), which will at the very least make them a hugely dangerous team to draw in the group stage.
Erling Haaland’s goals secured Norway’s place at a World Cup for the first time in 28 years (Image Photo Agency/Getty Images)
19. Ivory Coast
FIFA ranking: 42
Surprisingly, for the nation that has brought us Didier Drogba and Yaya Toure, the Ivory Coast have never made it out of the group stage at a World Cup. Their prospects of winning the whole thing are slim, but they were unbeaten in qualifying and won AFCON on home soil two years ago.
20. Japan
FIFA ranking: 18
The first team (aside from the hosts) to qualify for the tournament, thanks more to Asia’s scheduling than their own brilliance, they topped their final group emphatically, letting in just three goals over their 10 games. This will be their eighth World Cup in a row, but they have yet to get past the first knockout round: they certainly have the talent to go further this time.
21. Mexico
FIFA ranking: 15
The perennial second-rounders finally broke their curse of losing in the last 16 at seven consecutive World Cups in 2022… by being dumped out of the group stage. To do the same again here on home soil would be a national disaster. Expect the home fans — and 17-year-old wonderkid Gilberto Mora — to lift them to greater heights.
22. Italy
FIFA ranking: 12
The first team on our list who haven’t actually qualified for the tournament yet, but Italy are this high up because of their world ranking and general talent level throughout the squad. This isn’t a vintage Italy side but if they make it through the play-offs — where they face Northern Ireland for the right to play the winner of Wales vs Bosnia and Herzegovina — they should be aiming for a quarter-final spot.
23. Switzerland
FIFA ranking: 17
Their sixth consecutive World Cup appearance. Is there anything to suggest Switzerland can go further than the last 16, the round they’ve got to in four of the past five tournaments? Well, yeah, maybe; they went unbeaten in 2025 (10 games), beating Mexico and the United States along the way.
24. Ghana
FIFA ranking: 72
Any team that contains Mohammed Kudus and Antoine Semenyo should be worth the admission fee alone (although not at FIFA prices, obviously) but Ghana can be inconsistent (they didn’t even qualify for this year’s AFCON). One of several African nations who, with momentum, could go on a bit of a run.
25. United States
FIFA ranking: 14
The co-hosts have been patchy under Mauricio Pochettino: hiring a blue-chip manager to guide them in their home tournament wasn’t going to plan, but results have improved. Steering a team towards a World Cup with limited competitive action is always a tricky task, and their prospects at home are uncertain.
Christian Pulisic will be crucial to the USMNT’s hopes (John Dorton/ISI Photos/USSF/Getty Images)
26. Australia
FIFA ranking: 26
Qualification was slightly hairier than it could have been and they drew too many games, but they did also beat Japan. Under Tony Popovic, they will still think they can surpass their previous best performance of the first knockout round. There’s plenty of excitement about young winger Nestory Irankunda, doing his thing at club level for Watford. The 19-year-old looks like he will be Australia’s key attacking threat next summer.
27. Austria
FIFA ranking: 24
Briefly emerged as an outside bet in Euro 2024 when topping a group containing France and the Netherlands, but then came unstuck against Turkey. Under Ralf ‘Red Bull’ Rangnick, expect vertical dynamism, plus attacking gems Christoph Baumgartner and Marcel Sabitzer. With a bit of luck, they could go far.
28. Algeria
FIFA ranking: 35
Algeria marched through qualifying without ever really being spectacular. Guided from the dugout by former Switzerland coach Vladimir Petkovic, on the pitch, Riyad Mahrez is still their leader, but it probably won’t be long before he passes the baton to 25-year-old Mohamed Amoura or another young forward. You would be surprised if they don’t make it out of their group, but much more than that might be a stretch.
29. Denmark
FIFA ranking: 21
Well, they need to qualify first, which they would have done already had they not fluffed their lines in Scotland last month. North Macedonia (h) and the Czech Republic/Republic of Ireland (a) is their path to North America. If they get there, expect minimum frills and Mikkel Damsgaard to shine.
30. Iran
FIFA ranking: 20
Iran coach Amir Ghalenoei has received criticism for relying on the old guard, with Alireza Jahanbakhsh and Mehdi Taremi still key members. But will their experience actually prove to be an advantage when the tournament comes around? They have qualified for six previous World Cups but never made it out of the group. It will be an uphill task to change that this time.
31. Paraguay
FIFA ranking: 39
It’s been a long time since Paraguay beat Japan to reach the quarter-finals in 2010, where they lost to eventual winners Spain. We haven’t seen them in a World Cup since, but an obdurate defence (they conceded 10 goals in 18 qualifiers, scoring only 14 themselves) suggests they’ll be hard to beat. And boring to watch.
32. Canada
FIFA ranking: 27
There were high hopes for Canada in 2022 but they bombed with three defeats. This time, with home advantage, Jonathan David up front, Alphonso Davies helping pull the strings and manager Jesse Marsch turning them into a more aggressive, direct outfit, Canada should do better.
Alphonso Davies suffered an anterior cruciate ligament injury while on Canada duty in March 2025 (Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
33. Saudi Arabia
FIFA ranking: 60
Saudi Arabia made heavy work of qualifying, with some truly unconvincing performances and results leading to Roberto Mancini’s dismissal in October 2024. In truth, they didn’t improve too much after Herve Renard returned, but as they showed when they beat eventual champions Argentina under the Frenchman in one of the shocks of the 2022 World Cup, they are capable of producing some big results.
34. Turkey
FIFA ranking: 25
Anyone hyping up Turkey’s chances at a major tournament will have their disastrous Euro 2020 campaign in mind, where they were tipped as dark horses but lost all three games. That, along with the fact they still need to get through the play-offs, is why they’re in 34th here, but the individual talent — particularly their young attackers — means they could be much higher. Let’s not call them dark horses again… but they should be fun horses, at least.
35. Poland
FIFA ranking: 31
The focus will be on Messi and Ronaldo, but Poland have their own legendary all-timer who could be appearing at his last World Cup — 37-year-old Robert Lewandowski. First, they have Albania (h) and then either Ukraine or Sweden away to navigate in the play-offs.
36. Panama
FIFA ranking: 30
With traditional CONCACAF powerhouses U.S., Canada and Mexico having no need for qualifying, the path was open for Panama to dominate. Which they did… sort of. They won their group but drew three games, including twice against Suriname, so can they translate that into relative success at the tournament? Maybe, but they will need a kind draw.
37. Wales
FIFA ranking: 32
Wales hope to play in a second successive World Cup, having waited 64 years before qualifying in 2022. The Euro 2016 semi-finalists need to get past Bosnia and Herzegovina (h) and then Italy or Northern Ireland (h). If they get through, they can surprise people.
38. Scotland
FIFA ranking: 36
Their astonishing victory over Denmark to seal their first qualification since 1998 is still so fresh in the memory that it would be easy to think Scotland could win the whole thing. They won’t, but they have as good a chance as any of making it through their group, assuming Scott McTominay and John McGinn take their domestic excellence to the international game.
39. Tunisia
FIFA ranking: 40
Tunisia did not concede a single goal in 10 qualifiers, winning nine of them, but to describe them as having a granite-like back line would need more rigorous testing than it got against Namibia and Liberia. Getting out of the group stage, which they have never done before, from six attempts, would be a huge success.
40. Sweden
FIFA ranking: 43
What to make of Sweden? Aside from Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, this is a fairly average crop of talent, but is it ‘losing all your qualifiers so you have to rely on the Nations League back door to get into the play-offs’ average? Graham Potter has a few months to sort them out so they qualify, and if they manage that, then avoiding embarrassing themselves at the tournament will be the main priority.
41. Republic of Ireland
FIFA ranking: 59
A month ago, you wouldn’t have backed Ireland to score a goal in your back garden. Now, after somehow beating Portugal and Hungary and with the world’s foremost attacker Troy Parrott up front, you’d fancy their chances against 1970s Brazil. The world will hope they get through the play-offs, if only for the party.
42. Qatar
FIFA ranking: 51
Four years ago, they were among the more pathetic hosts in World Cup history, losing their three games by an aggregate score of 7-1. But on either side of that disaster, they won and then retained the Asian Cup, so they’re clearly not complete jokers. Actually having to go through a qualification campaign might stand them in good stead, rather than the succession of soft friendlies four years ago… but they will still be among the favourites for a first-round exit.
43. Czech Republic
FIFA ranking: 44
Having reached only one World Cup since 1990, the Czech Republic may be pessimistic about their play-off prospects against the Republic of Ireland (h) and then probably Denmark (also at home). Patrik Schick remains their most potent attacker but there’s not much else to write home about.
44. South Africa
FIFA ranking: 61
A glance at their qualification record would suggest South Africa only just squeaked through, but they had to overcome a three-point deduction for fielding an ineligible player, so they’re stronger than their record suggests. This is their first World Cup since hosting in 2010, and their prospects might be aided by the fact the core of their team is provided by the dominant club side Mamelodi Sundowns.
45. New Zealand
FIFA ranking: 86
New Zealand are one of the biggest beneficiaries of an expanded World Cup, with Oceania receiving one direct qualification spot for the first time, helping them reach their first finals since 2010. Chris Wood was there in South Africa and he remains their star player and focal point. It might not be pretty, but they can get a result, shown by their 1-1 draw in Norway in October.
46. Jordan
FIFA ranking: 66
Jordan continue to surprise and delight by punching above their weight. After shocking the 2023 Asian Cup by reaching the final when most thought they would struggle to get past the first round, they qualified for the World Cup for the first time, confirming their place with a 3-0 win over Oman in June. Some concern might come from some rough results in post-qualification friendlies, and they will have to get past the “just happy to be there” attitude if they are to make an impact.
47. Bolivia
FIFA ranking: 76
Despite conceding 35 goals (South America’s worst defensive record) and only being the seventh best of 10 CONMEBOL sides, Bolivia could reach only their second World Cup since 1950. They face an intercontinental play-off against Suriname, with Iraq waiting for the winners. If they do make it, keep expectations very low.
48. Slovakia
FIFA ranking: 45
Slovakia have not yet booked their place, and it is touch and go whether they will be there: they will have to get through Kosovo (they probably will), then Turkey (they probably won’t) to make it. Having also faced Germany in the qualifying group, even getting there would be some achievement, and anything beyond that feels optimistic.
49. Bosnia and Herzegovina
FIFA ranking: 71
They were just 13 minutes away from securing qualification when a late Austrian equaliser dropped them into the play-offs. If you like your strikers old and gangly, Edin Dzeko is still going strong(ish) aged 39 with Fiorentina.
50. DR Congo
FIFA ranking: 56
If DR Congo get to the World Cup, you couldn’t say they haven’t earned it. They finished a close second behind Senegal in their group (who they have also been drawn against at the upcoming AFCON), then slugged it out with Nigeria in the African play-offs, winning on penalties… which has earned them a slot in an intercontinental play-off final, against either New Caledonia or Jamaica. They will probably be favourites against either, but all of that is some slog.
51. Ukraine
FIFA ranking: 28
Regulars at the Euros (they have reached the last four tournaments and were quarter-finalists in 2021), Ukraine have not played in a World Cup since the 2006 glory days of Andriy Shevchenko and Serhiy Rebrov. It would mean so much to them to reach another, which would be a huge achievement considering they still can’t play matches at home.
Ukraine have not played matches on home soil since Russia’s invasion in 2022 (Oksana Vasylieva/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
52. Romania
FIFA ranking: 47
It will be quite a surprise if the Romanians are on hand to repeat their 1994 heroics at the last U.S. World Cup, when Gheorghe Hagi and pals took them past Argentina and into the quarter-finals. Their hopes are only still alive thanks to the Nations League loophole, and the odds are that Turkey will dispatch them in the play-offs. Should they make it through, they would need a very friendly draw to make an impact.
53. Jamaica
FIFA ranking: 70
France 1998 remains their only appearance at a World Cup, with the recent draw against Curacao costing them a 2026 spot and Steve McClaren his job. They should beat New Caledonia in their first play-off, but then DR Congo await. They have the players, including Leon Bailey and Demarai Gray, who could cause most teams problems.
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54. Cape Verde
FIFA ranking: 68
The joy at qualifying for their first World Cup hasn’t come close to subsiding, but when it does, perhaps some reality will set in. Few of their players operate at the highest domestic level, and most of their squad will be spread around a collection of the world’s, shall we say, less fashionable leagues. Even being there is an astonishing achievement, so making it out of their group will be a miracle.
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55. Uzbekistan
FIFA ranking: 50
This is a long-overdue World Cup debut for a football-mad nation. Uzbekistan’s success in youth internationals in recent years — including victories over England and Croatia (the latter on penalties) in Under-17 World Cups — hints at an emerging force. Their recently appointed manager, Fabio Cannavaro, certainly knows how to handle a World Cup.
56. Northern Ireland
FIFA ranking: 69
It will be one of the great stories should Michael O’Neill’s side reach the World Cup for the first time since 1986. It always feels like a minor miracle when they beat any opposition, given their squad is often gathered from the English lower leagues. Should they make it past Italy in their away play-off semi-final, then either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina in the final… that would be a major miracle.
57. Albania
FIFA ranking: 63
Sylvinho’s team made many fans at Euro 2024 when they pushed Italy and Spain and drew with Croatia. They face a really tough play-off run against Poland (a) and then Ukraine or Sweden (a). A home draw would have helped.
58. Iraq
FIFA ranking: 58
Iraq’s qualification campaign has been full of drama: they sacked Jesus Casas in March and replaced him with former Australia coach Graham Arnold, who took them close to automatic qualification. They only finished behind Saudi Arabia on goals scored in the final group stage, then beat the United Arab Emirates with a 107th-minute penalty in the Asian play-off, which granted them access to the intercontinental phase. They will play the winner of Bolivia vs Suriname… so if they do make it, they will have been through plenty to get there.
59. North Macedonia
FIFA ranking: 65
Well, if they don’t play Wales, they should be fine. A 7-1 shellacking in November showed up North Macedonia’s limitations and if they somehow get through the play-offs and reach a first World Cup, they’ll be on the ‘you wouldn’t mind drawing them’ list.
60. Curacao
FIFA ranking: 82
Curacao only achieved country status 15 years ago, and became the smallest nation ever to qualify for the World Cup when they beat Jamaica in a winner-takes-all final-day decider. They’re the fourth debutant, after Jordan, Uzbekistan and Cape Verde, and they look the weakest of that quartet. If they even manage to pick up a point at the World Cup, that would be an achievement. If they win a game, or get through their group… well, stranger things have happened, but not many.
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61. Kosovo
FIFA ranking: 80
Played their first friendly after independence in 2010, became a FIFA member in 2016, now a World Cup in 2026? They are tantalisingly close, having impressively edged Slovenia and Sweden to second spot in their qualifying group. They got a decent play-off draw and, for a country of 1.6 million people, it would be some story if they made it.
62. Haiti
FIFA ranking: 84
There will be plenty of beneficiaries from the expanded tournament, but arguably just as fortunate are the CONCACAF nations traditionally shunted out by the three hosts. Haiti, whose only previous appearance was in 1974, were one of those countries, but they performed superbly to finish above recent qualifiers Honduras and Costa Rica. They surely won’t get further than the first round, but even this is an extraordinary achievement.
63. Suriname
FIFA ranking: 123
Suriname usually struggle to reach CONCACAF Gold Cups, let alone World Cups, but edged out Honduras as a second-placed team by virtue of goals scored to reach the intercontinental play-offs. Below Vietnam and Sudan in FIFA’s rankings, they would be one of the tournament’s biggest-ever outsiders and also smallest-ever nations, with a population of only 600,000.
64. New Caledonia
FIFA ranking: 149
The departure of Australia to the Asian confederation and the promotion of Oceania to a full automatic place has meant New Zealand have been more or less guaranteed a spot in recent editions. But the runners-up being permitted entry into the intercontinental play-offs is a new thing, and if New Caledonia qualify, they would be comfortably the lowest-ranked nation to do so — they’re 149th in the world, which would beat Suriname, who are 123rd. Never mind winning a game — scoring a goal would be an achievement… if they make it.
