We have a Thursday Night Football game tonight that is essentially acting as a playoff game itself. The Cowboys are 6-5-1 and (2.0) Games out of the Playoffs. The Lions are 7-5 and (1.5) Games out of the Playoffs. Whichever team loses will have a
Best MVP/Captain Picks
In a game of high-scoring projections, we must chase: Touchdowns and Bonuses.
Javonte Williams is -135 to score a touchdown. He does have a tougher matchup versus the 2nd rated Lions Run Stop, so the 100+ Yard bonus may be in doubt. Nonetheless, Williams may well score and easily exceed 1.0x.
Gibbs has tremendous upside in this game. There is a world where has 100+ Rushing, and Receiving Yards. That is quite unlikely, but I would not hate a bet where he has 100+ Yards in one of those two facets of the game. Gibbs may well touch the ball well over 50% of Lions offensive snaps.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) unlikely to play Thursday https://t.co/71TF2IpTVV via @ArmchairNate #OnePride
— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) December 3, 2025
Montgomery will also have a higher workload with St. Brown due to be out, per FantasyPros. We project to see >50 Rushing Yards and >40 Receiving Yards. Montgomery will have a 40% chance to score a Touchdown.
The Lions are 31st verus Wide Receiver, and that was exposed by the Packers in Week 13. The Cowboys are the far-best Wide Receiving duo in football, so Lamb and Pickens have tremendous upside of >30% chances to score a touchdown with great 100+ Yard upside.
The Cowboys are 32nd versus Wide Receivers. I would be a bit concerned that they double-team Jameson Williams as the Lions lack much else among their Receivers. That being said, Williams may well have a >40% Target Share, which goes a very long way.
Best MVP/Captain Picks
- Jahmyr Gibbs $19,500
- CeeDee Lamb $17,700
- George Pickens $15,900
- Jameson Williams $14,700
- Javonte Williams $13,800
- David Montgomery $11,700
Quarterback: Dak Prescott vs Jared Goff
Prescott has been among the best Quarterbacks in the NFL this season, at least in the pure passing element. He is #1 in QBR (75.3). The Cowboys pass the ball at an above-average rate of (59.5%). In this game, we project that there will be no shortage of pass attempts as the Lions are favored (-3). Little case is made against using Prescott.
Goff has struggled of late, but not quite as much in DFS. Goff has no less than (255) Yards since Week 8. He has met at least 1.2x of tonight’s salary in each of those games.
The Lions will be without Amon-Ra St. Brown, which will very much hurt their passing offense. Expect Goff to drop down often to Gibbs and Montgomery on top of working Jameson Williams in dynamic fashion. Goff has risk, but can be used. He will be cheaper than Prescott.
Dak Prescott ($12,200) is a must-use Quarterback, although Jared Goff ($11,200) is also worth a shot if able to be afforded.
Best Running Back Picks
Javonte Williams owns this Cowboys backfield, despite some moderate work from Malik Davis. Williams should have about 2/3rds of snaps/yards in this backfield that averages (121.8) Yards per Game. If the Cowboys get up, which is not projected, but quite likely, Williams could very well exceed the 100+ Yard bonus. He is the 2nd likeliest Touchdown Scorer in this game (-135).
We must, however, note that the Lions are 2nd versus Running Backs and 4th in Rushing Yards Allowed. Williams still has very high upside given his role in this offense, but the metrics make it that much more difficult.
Davis is now working to about 20% of work in this Cowboys backfield. He is averaging over (7) Yards per Attempt, but that is bound to normalize itself down.
Jahmyr Gibbs is going to be very heavily used in this game as we expect St. Brown is be out on top of Kalif Raymond and Brock Wright. He will have his normal 60%+ of Rushing Yards and tonight, Gibbs can have over 25% of Team Receiving Yards.
There’s no slowing down Jahmyr Gibbs 😤 #TNFonPrime pic.twitter.com/sHJQoNwEQh
— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) December 4, 2025
The Cowboys are 20th in Rushing Yards Allowed and 19th versus Running Backs. Gibbs could easily hit the 100+ Yard bonus and is very likely to score (-260).
David Montgomery is getting a tad bit more work of recent. He will have 30-40% of Team Rushes which can easily net 50+ Yards in this game. Montgomery will also work further into this thin pass-catching depth chart tonight, which may double his usual output.
Best Running Back Picks
- Jahmyr Gibbs $13,000
- Javonte Williams $9,200
- David Montgomery $7,800
Best Wide Receiver Picks
The Lions have shown a clear weakness is their coverage. They are the 31st ranked unit versus Wide Receivers, allowing (1.6) Touchdowns per Game with (154.8) Yards per Game. This bodes very well for both Lamb and Pickens. They both see around 30% of Team Targets/Receiving Yards and >20% of Red Zone Targets.
The Lions will likely be fielding Williams as their WR1 tonight. He will step into a massive workload that can very well go over a 40% Target Share. The Cowboys, for that matter, are the worst NFL team versus Wide Receivers. He has among the highest yardage projections of any NFL Wide Receiver in Week 14.
Lions WR Isaac TeSlaa’s 0.65 yards per route run ranks 129th out of 141 WRs this season (Min. 10 targets).
If Amon-Ra St. Brown is out, the rookie must step up and become a far more reliable target for Jared Goff tonight.
— Al Karsten (@FootballGuy_Al) December 4, 2025
TeSlaa is likely the WR2 tonight, but we still may not trust his volume a ton. TeSlaa could have a 25% Target Share or a 5% Target Share. He is the 5th Pass-Catcher on this team that is stepping into a very new role. The good news is that they love TeSlaa in the Red Zone with (6) Targets on the year. His upside may outweigh the risk.
Best Wide Receiver Picks
- CeeDee Lamb $11,800
- George Pickens $10,600
- Jameson William $9,800
- Isaac TeSlaa $5,600
Best Tight End Picks
Ferguson, as always, will have a high Target Share. This Cowboys offense runs exclusively through Lamb, Pickens, and Ferguson. He has only 15% of Team Receiving Yards, but a 24% Red Zone Target Share. The Lions are a moderately rated 12th versus the Tight End. Ferguson may be more Touchdown reliant given the much higher advantage that the Cowboys have with their Receivers.
The Lions are an extremely volatile Tight End group tonight. Brock Wright is out and so it goes to Ross Dwelley and Anthony Firkser. Dwelley snapped well ahead of Firkser 75%-to-24% in Week 13, but that can quickly change. Both players may have closer to a 5% Target Share and will would be ill-advised to use either of them.
Jake Ferguson ($8,400) is the only worthwhile Tight End to use, but even then, I would fade him.
Defense/Special Teams
This game has an over/under of (54.5). We should not bet against either of these offenses.
Kicker: Brandon Aubrey vs Jake Bates
This game has high scoring upside, which will favor kickers. Aubrey is 91.7% accurate with (2.0) Attempts per Game. He has a high chance of elapsing (3) Attempts tonight.
Bates is only 80% accurate on the year, being 16-for-20. He is also fielding less than (2) Attempts per Game. When we compound this with some Lions team injuries, it suggests risk worth fading.
Brandon Aubrey ($7,000) is a great start.
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