Sheinbaum has high approval ratings, but her government’s troubles are starting to take a toll

As 2025 draws to a close, President Claudia Sheinbaum maintains high approval ratings, but is beginning to feel the toll of office. Her approval rating, at 74%, remains very high compared to her predecessors, but it is the lowest level since the start of her administration, according to a survey by Enkoll conducted for EL PAÍS and W Radio.

The survey, conducted between November 28 and December 1, took place during one of the most critical moments of Sheinbaum’s government, following the assassination of Carlos Manzo, mayor of Uruapan; Generation Z demonstrations encouraged by young people and opposition leaders; and protests by transport workers and farmers. After a month of conflicts in which the government lost control of the public agenda, the president’s approval fell four points compared to the September poll.

When asked “Do you approve or disapprove of Claudia Sheinbaum’s performance as mayor?” 74% of respondents said they approve, a drop of nine points from her highest approval rating in May 2025, when it reached 83%. Her disapproval rating of 24% is also the highest since December 2024, when it stood at 21%.

The same trend is reflected in the public’s perception of the situation in Mexico. One year into her six-year term, and following a November filled with challenges that the opposition used to question the government’s efficiency, 62% believe the country’s situation is improving. This is also the lowest level since December 2014, when 71% said the country was improving. Similarly, the 34% who believe the country is “getting worsening” is the highest figure since Enkoll began conducting this survey.

With these figures, Sheinbaum is preparing to lead a rally on Saturday in Mexico City’s Zócalo square, which is expected to draw thousands of supporters of the ruling party Morena, allied organizations, and labor unions. This is the second time in less than a month that the ruling party has called for a mass rally in the country’s main public square. On October 6, the president closed a national tour at the Zócalo to mark her first report and the completion of her first year in office. This time, Sheinbaum has said the event is for “the historic celebration of seven years of transformation.” But it appears to be a response to the opposition march on November 15 and the call for another anti-government demonstration on December 14.

One striking finding of the Enkoll poll is that Sheinbaum’s lowest approval ratings are among 18- to 24-year-olds, with just 61% in favor and 37% opposed. In contrast, 80% of people aged 55 to 64 approve of Sheinbaum, as do 86% of those 65 and older. As with her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the president’s biggest support comes from the beneficiaries of the universal pension for senior citizens.

Survey results, category by category

According to the December survey, Claudia Sheinbaum’s government maintains clear approval in six out of 10 evaluated areas: women’s rights (81% believe the situation is improving, 16% say it is worsening), social support programs (79%-18%), housing (67%-23%), Mexico’s relations with other countries (64%-27%), education (66%-30%), and infrastructure and public works (62%-31%).

In contrast, its main weaknesses are insecurity, drug trafficking, and corruption — areas in which the survey records the worst approval figures since the beginning of her administration, and precisely the issues on which the opposition has attacked Sheinbaum.

The assassination of Carlos Manzo, which fueled calls for greater security and public debate on the issue, may be one of the reasons for the decline in approval of the president and her government. Despite the new security strategy led by Public Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch and monthly figures showing a reduction in high-impact crimes released by the security cabinet, only 41% of respondents believe the country is improving in terms of security, while 57% think it is worsening. For 51% of respondents, the main problem facing the country is insecurity and drug trafficking.

Regarding the assassination of Mayor Carlos Manzo, most respondents (51%) rated the government’s response as poor or very poor, while only 36% considered it good or very good. However, the Michoacán Plan for Peace and Justice — announced by Sheinbaum to address the crisis — was better received: a majority of 52% believe it will be effective, while 42% doubt it will lead to results.

Corruption, another key issue in opposition discourse, is also beginning to take a toll on Sheinbaum. The survey reflects the impact of cases that do not directly involve her, but do involve figures from Morena, such as Senator Adán Augusto López and his alleged links to the criminal group La Barredora; Andrés López Beltrán, Morena’s secretary of organization and López Obrador’s son, and his luxury trip to Japan; Gerardo Fernández Noroña, former Senate president, and his Tepoztlán house; as well as cases inherited from the previous administration, such as the Segalmex scandal (state food agency accused of mismanaged funds and fraudulent contracts). After one year in office, despite the creation of the Ministry of Anti-Corruption and Good Governance, only 38% believe the fight against corruption is improving, while 59% think it is worsening.

Two other areas where the survey shows a decline in public approval are health and the economy, both recording the worst numbers for the government since Sheinbaum took office. Forty-four percent believe health services are getting worse, while 51% think they are improving. This marks a clear drop from January, when 63% believed the situation was improving and only 30% thought it was worsening. The same trend appears in economic management, where 50% believe it is improving and 46% think it is getting worse — the lowest figures since the start of the six-year term.

The Enkoll survey also sheds light on public perception after seven years of governments under the so-called “Fourth Transformation.” Most respondents (63%) believe the country has been better under López Obrador and Sheinbaum than under the National Action Party (PAN) and Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) administrations, while 35% think it has been worse. Regarding personal and family situations, 64% perceive an improvement, while 33% believe things have worsened.

On December 6, it will be seven years since Morena has governed Mexico, first with Andrés Manuel López Obrador and now with Claudia Sheinbaum

Source Enkoll | W Radio EL PAÍS

The president’s positive numbers also benefit Morena, despite scandals involving prominent party leaders and legislators. When asked, “Which party do you identify with most at this moment?” 41% responded Morena, while 27% said they are independent. With more than a year and a half to go before the major 2027 elections, few respondents identified with the opposition parties: PAN 11%, Movimiento Ciudadano (Citizens’ Movement) 7%, and PRI 5%. Morena’s allied parties, despite having greater representation in Congress than the opposition, have even lower levels of support: Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) 3% and Labor Party (PT) 2%.

However, Morena has also lost popularity in recent months. In May, Enkoll surveys recorded that 51% of the population identified with the ruling party (its highest point in the past year), meaning the party has lost nine points in four months. This decline has not been capitalized on by other political forces, which have remained at their year‑long levels. Meanwhile, those identifying as independent rose from 20% in September to 27% in December.

Methodology

General data:

1. 1,201 effective interviews with men and women aged 18 and over, with a valid voter ID card and proof of address.
2. From November 28 to December 1, 2025.
3. Face-to-face interviews in homes, conducted with electronic devices using a data collection instrument (questionnaire) appropriate for the purposes of the study.

SAMPLE SELECTION

The sample is representative of the Mexican Republic. . A probabilistic, multi-stage sampling method was used:

1. Stage I. Electoral sections are selected using probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling of the voter registration list.
2. Stage II. Blocks are selected in each primary unit sampled using probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling of the voter registration list.
3. Stage III. Dwellings are selected in each block using systematic sampling with a random start.

For better population representation, quotas are applied by gender and age range.

ACCURACY AND CONFIDENCE

The results have a margin of error around +/- 2.8% with a 95% confidence level in the main indicators.

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