Michigan State prediction vs Duke: The pick for blockbuster at Breslin

Top facts about MSU head basketball coach Tom Izzo
Discover key facts about Tom Izzo, the legendary head basketball coach at Michigan State University, his contributions, achievements, and impact on the sport.
EAST LANSING — It was a week filled with major news for Tom Izzo and Michigan State.
The firing and hiring of football coaches. The announcement of a major fundraising campaign and a massive donation. A hockey game with rival Michigan. As well as a successful Big Ten basketball opener for Izzo’s Spartans in blowout fashion over a ranked Iowa team.
Time to exhale? No. That’s not Izzo’s way.
In seemingly fitting fashion, No. 8 MSU will take it one step further with a marquee matchup against No. 4 Duke on Saturday, Dec. 6. Tipoff at Breslin Center between the unbeaten Spartans and Blue Devils, both 9-0 overall, is at noon (Fox).
MSU is 0-2 all time at Breslin against Duke, with double-digit losses in 2003 and 2019.
“Let’s face it, we haven’t beaten Duke in our arena. We understand that,” Izzo said. “The problem is with these games, you make everything the game of the year. It’s an important game for us, it’s an important game for the program, and it’s an important game for the players. I’m just happy we’re in the position to do this.”
Here is a look at Saturday’s latest showdown for the Spartans.
Schedule success
Izzo gave credit to his scheduling Svengali Kevin Pauga for building a schedule with intentionality to sandwich big matchups with games for growth.
That started during the exhibition season, with MSU beating a tough Bowling Green team at home before going and getting blitzed by No. 5 Connecticut in a game that didn’t count – other than the experience.
Since, the Spartans have been a different bunch and continued, step-by-step to build to the crescendo against Duke. That included topping No. 2 Arkansas at home in the second game of the season, knocking off No. 18 Kentucky in the Champions Classic and battling and beating No. 17 North Carolina in the Fort Myers Tip-Off before throttling No. 25 Iowa in Tuesday’s Big Ten opener, 71-52.
“Our goal is to win the Big Ten back-to-back,” said sophomore point guard Jeremy Fears Jr., who leads the nation at 9.4 assists per game to go with his 12.3 points. “So in order to do that, you learn early with the challenges and the early big Top 25 games with some of the SEC and ACC opponents we have played, and even some [nonconference games]. … It just tests you and sees how disciplined you are and how focused you are.”
Now comes the biggest challenge yet in Duke.
“It’s tough but it’s not as tough, because we’ve been through it before,” said senior Carson Cooper, who averages 9.6 points and 5.9 rebounds. “We understand there hasn’t been an undefeated year in 50-some years. But we need to approach every game like we are gonna have an undefeated year. The guys, it’s good for them to kind of go through the wars and go through the ups and downs and go through the positives and negatives. And to go through big preps like this.”
Ward ready
Freshman Cam Ward sat out the Iowa game with a wrist injury he suffered against UNC. Izzo expects the 6-foot-9 forward to be ready to face the Blue Devils after consulting with Ward and his family about sitting out against the Hawkeyes.
“It was tough. In my mind, I could have gone,” Ward said after practice Thursday. “But just for the precaution of having a big game on Saturday, the focus of me going into it, it was just talking to my family and stuff. Iz wanted to prioritize my health and my well-being, which I really appreciate him for.”
Through his first eight games, Ward is averaging nine points and 5.1 rebounds in 16.4 minutes off the bench.
The Blue Devils, under coach Jon Scheyer, are led by freshman phenom Cameron Boozer. The 6-9, 250-pound forward – and son of former Duke (and NBA) star Carlos Boozer – is averaging 23.6 points and 9.3 rebounds while shooting 56.2% early in his college career, and he’s a dynamic playmaker who has also posted 3.7 assists,1.7 steals and a block in his first nine collegiate games.
“He’s physical, and he is a guy – he does a lot well,” said Ward, who played against Boozer in the high school AAU circuit. “He doesn’t really beat himself. If you beat them, you’re gonna beat them. They’re not gonna make a lot of mistakes. He’s a great player, he was highly sought after for a reason with his production and what he does. The goal is to take all that away.”
Isaiah Evans, a 6-6 shooting guard, averages 12.6 points a game and has hit 32% of his 3-point attempts. Fellow sophomore Patrick Ngongba II, a 6-11 center, also scores 12.6 points with 6.3 rebounds and 14 blocked shots.
Nine Blue Devils average at least 13 minutes and at least five points a game. Duke owns the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (59.6 points) while ranking No. 2 in field goal percentage defense (34.4%).
MSU is 4-15 all-time against Duke and Izzo is 3-14 against the Blue Devils, who have won the two most recent meetings after the Spartans took two of three from 2019-20.
Chris Solari’s prediction
In a classic matchup between two bluebloods, the Spartans’ ability to elevate each other – and the Izzone’s ability to provide a homecourt advantage the Blue Devils rarely experience outside their own Cameron Indoor Stadium – will have Fears and Co. playing at a high level against a strong offensive opponent. But the difference in this will be MSU’s defenders, as they pester Boozer enough to escape with a thrilling win in the final minute when Fears controls the tempo and late situations. The pick: MSU 67, Duke 65.
Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.
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