The 2025 FCS playoffs continue with the second round. The Top 8 seeds are coming off byes and now join the fun in the chase for a national championship.
After a 6-2 mark last week, let’s predict some more scores.
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Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 129-46
2024 Record: 126-40
FCS Playoffs Second-Round Predictions
Second-Round TV Schedule
#12 Villanova at #5 Lehigh Prediction
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Villanova
Lehigh
Future Patriot League mates, as Villanova joins the league next season.
Villanova is coming off a statement 52-7 first-round win over Harvard, rushing for 319 yards and 6.6 yards per carry. The Wildcats are 10-2 and are riding a nine-game winning streak.
It’ll be strength on strength as they run up against a 12-0 Lehigh team that owns the No. 1 FCS rushing defense (73.7 yards per game).
Nova has shown off its running back depth behind a veteran offensive line, being without David Avit since early November. Avit is a top-tier FCS back. Ja’briel Mace has stepped up with 688 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground. Isaiah Ragland adds 653 yards and two scores. The Wildcats still possess a nice offensive balance. Nicholls transfer Pat McQuaide has thrown for 2,536 yards, 22 touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Along with its No. 1 FCS rushing defense, Lehigh has the No. 2 FCS scoring defense, allowing 13.9 points per game. The Mountain Hawks allow 207.9 passing YPG, which ranks No. 50. Brycen Edwards leads the unit with 83 tackles, plus nine TFLs. Tyler Ochojski has 12 TFLs and 10 sacks, and Matt Spatny adds 12.5 TFLs with eight sacks.
Lehigh’s offense is led by the running back duo of Luke Yoder (1,329 yards, 15 TDs) and Jaden Green (811 yards, 8 TDs), although Green got dinged up in Week 13. Hayden Johnson has elevated his play as a passer, throwing for 2,349 yards, 18 TDs, and six interceptions this season. Johnson and Green are just sophomores, while Yoder is a junior. On the outside, Geoffrey Jamiel has gone over the 1,000-yard receiving mark.
Villanova’s defense, led by veteran LB Shane Hartzell (81 tackles, 14 TFLs), is good against the run (129.3 YPG) but more gettable through the air (204.8 YPG).
While both teams want to run the ball, which passing attack gets going will be the difference. I trust Johnson and his playmaker receivers a bit more.
Prediction: Lehigh 27-20
RELATED: FCS National Championship Odds
#11 South Dakota at #6 Mercer Prediction
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South Dakota
Mercer
When asked what other conferences need to do to catch the MVFC and Big Sky, the answer is usually winning tough non-conference games and then setting yourself up to host those teams in the playoffs instead of being sent there.
The SoCon champ now has a chance to do something with this opportunity of hosting South Dakota, who finished No. 2 in the MVFC at 6-2 in league play and 9-4 overall. The Coyotes have won four straight, including beating three consecutive ranked opponents to end the regular season – No. 8 UND, No. 8 SDSU, and No. 21 SIU. They defeated Drake 38-17 in the first round.
Mercer is also on a heater.
Since an embarrassing 15-10 home loss to non-scholarship Presbyterian, Mercer made a QB switch to true freshman Braden Atkinson and then beat nine straight FCS opponents. Atkinson has passed for 3,448 yards, 34 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, winning the Jerry Rice Award. The 3,448 passing yards ranked No. 2 in the FCS regular season, and he is currently PFF’s No. 3 graded FCS QB. Atkinson spreads the wealth. Adjatay Dabbs, Brayden Smith, and Adonis McDaniel are all over 600 receiving yards. CJ Miller adds 852 rushing yards and 14 scores.
USD doesn’t wow in any defensive category, allowing 26.4 PPG, 152.9 rushing YPG, and 201.9 passing YPG. But how does Mercer’s offense stack up against a more physical outfit than what it is used to seeing?
The more intriguing matchup may be on the other side of the ball.
The Yotes want to run the ball to set up the pass. L.J. Phillips Jr. has been elite this season, stepping into a more featured role after the injury to All-American Charles Pierre Jr. Phillips has rushed for 1,688 yards and 16 scores. USD will go up against a strong Mercer run defense. The Bears allow just 92.2 rushing YPG, ranking No. 4 in the FCS. LB Drew Clare has 80 tackles and 11.5 TFLs, while DE Andrew Zock is one of the very best defensive players in the FCS with 20 TFLs, 11.5 sacks, and 22 QB hurries.
Mercer isn’t great at defending the pass, allowing 243.7 passing YPG. This may be an Aidan Bouman game. The senior has been dialed in down the stretch, playing like a guy knowing his college career is winding down. He returned to USD this season for these games. After a rough start, Bouman and the passing game have found their rhythm. He has thrown for 2,404 yards, 22 TDs, and six interceptions. Larenzo Fenner has emerged as a terrific target, hauling in 883 receiving yards (22.6 yards per catch) and 14 scores.
While Mercer’s secondary is gettable, the question is how the USD pass protection holds up. Mercer has 42 team sacks, averaging 3.82 per game to lead the subdivision. Zock is a menace off the edge. USD is No. 19 in sacks allowed per game at 1.31. However, its PFF pass-blocking grade ranks No. 125 in the FCS. Bouman can move around some, but he isn’t the most mobile.
On paper, the matchup favors Mercer — Its offense can find success while its defense can stop the run and then get after Bouman. But something tells me that Bouman isn’t ready to be done just yet. Couple that with what looks to be a rainy day, which could favor USD if it comes down to which rushing attack can establish itself better, and I’ll take the Yotes getting it done on the road.
Prediction: South Dakota 35-31
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Illinois State at #1 North Dakota State Prediction
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Illinois St
North Dakota St
A regular-season rematch here. NDSU won 33-16 at Illinois State in early October, leading 18-16 entering the fourth quarter before pulling away.
NDSU begins its push for another national title after enjoying a bye week. The Bison are heavy, heavy favorites to win it all again. ISU, meanwhile, is coming off a 21-3 win at Southeastern Louisiana in a game where it slowly pulled away.
These two programs know each other well, so it’ll be interesting to see the game plans early on, and then how each team adjusts. ISU has a nice RB duo of Victor Dawson (811 yards) and Wenkers Wright (591 yards). But the Redbirds found some success against NDSU earlier this year in spreading the defense out with the pass game. Tommy Rittenhouse (2,491 yards, 29 TDs, 5 INT) is a good QB, and Daniel Sobkowicz (775 yards, 11 TDs) is a tough matchup for any defense.
The Bison own the No. 1 FCS scoring defense, though, allowing 11.7 points per game. It’s hard to find a weakness to exploit in this unit.
A Cole Payton-led offense has been humming for most of this season. He has thrown for 2,618 yards, 15 TDs, and four interceptions, plus 791 yards and 13 scores on the ground. Bryce Lance (1,001 yards, 7 TDs) went off in last year’s playoff run. Expect that connection to continue against an ISU defense that allows 243.9 passing yards per game.
NDSU has had some slower starts in early-round games. And the Fargodome doesn’t pack the same punch as it once did, struggling to sell out until the semifinals. Illinois State won’t be intimidated or wide-eyed here. But pound-for-pound, the Redbirds don’t have the dudes to keep up with NDSU. This feels like a slow-burn type of game where NDSU grinds down the opposition for a three-score win.
Prediction: NDSU 35-14
North Dakota at #4 Tarleton State Prediction
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North Dakota
Tarleton St
A really intriguing matchup here. How does UND stack up against Tarleton’s speed? How does Tarleton stack up in the trenches against UND?
The Texans found out what it takes on the line of scrimmage in the playoffs last year at South Dakota. They gave USD a heckuva game for three quarters, but the Coyotes eventually wore them down in the trenches. Tarleton addressed that this offseason. But is it enough against a good UND offensive line and a top-tier defensive line?
UND went to No. 13 seed Tennessee Tech last week and won 31-6. It was a defensive slugfest, with UND leading 10-6 entering the fourth. But the Fighting Hawks’ defense kept overwhelming TN Tech’s offensive line, forcing four fumbles on QB Kekoa Visperas. And eventually the dam broke for TN Tech’s defense as UND scored three rushing touchdowns in the fourth to pull away.
Tarleton runs the slow-mesh/slow-RPO concept on offense. If the d-line can’t generate pressure, it puts the back seven in conflict. The Texans are well-balanced with a good run-blocking offensive line (PFF’s No. 9-ranked in the FCS), have a strong stable of running backs, a veteran quarterback, and explosive weapons on the outside. Victor Gabalis has thrown for 2,395 yards, 25 TDs, and four interceptions. Peyton Kramer (837 yards), Cody Jackson (755 yards), and Trevon West (693 yards) are his go-to targets. In the backfield, standout freshman Tre Page III (team-high 839 rushing yards) is out with a season-ending injury. But Tylan Hines, the projected starter this season who got hurt in Week 0, returned and has rushed for 80 yards and 215 yards in his two games back.
What totally disrupts the flow of Tarleton’s offense is a d-line that can collapse the pocket in a hurry. UND has that capability rushing four. Lance Rucker is a problem with 14 TFLs and 10.5 sacks. Kaden Vig has also had a strong season with six TFLs and 5.5 sacks.
Tarleton owns PFF’s No. 22 pass-blocking grade in the FCS. If it can hold up, Tarleton has an advantage against a thin UND cornerback room battling through injuries. The best defense against a good passing attack, though, is a good pass-rush.
On the other side, the two big questions are: Will UND QB Jerry Kaminski play after suffering a concussion last week? And can Tarleton stop the run?
Kaminski had a fabulous first half to this season in his starting debut. He has thrown for 2,458 yards, 26 TDs, and 10 interceptions. But in the last six games, he has an 8:9 TD:INT ratio. That doesn’t bode well against a Tarleton squad that is +29 in the turnover margin. The next best in the FCS is +16. Kasyus Kurns has picked off five passes, and the Texans have 21 as a team, which is also No. 1 in the subdivision. If Kaminski can’t go, last year’s starter, Simon Romfo, will step in. In 2024, Romfo threw for 2,051 yards, 18 TDs, and eight interceptions.
Regardless of who’s at quarterback, UND will try to establish the run. It owns PFF’s No. 4 run-blocking grade while averaging 199.4 rushing YPG. Sawyer Seidl is explosive, tallying 879 yards and 11 TDs on the ground. Gaven Ziebarth is the brusier, returning from injury last week and rushing for 66 yards on 11 carries.
Tarleton has a talented front seven. Brandon Tolvert, Angelo Anderson, and Josh Griffis are especially good players on the d-line. But offenses have found success running the ball at times, breaking loose for big gains. Austin Peay ran for 262 yards in the regular-season finale, with 194 of that coming from QB Chris Parson. Abilene Christian ran for 233 yards in Tarleton’s only loss of the season.
If Kaminski doesn’t play, Tarleton can zero in on the run even more. Kaminski’s status is unknown as of this writing.
Tarleton has at least looked better built to make a decent playoff run. It is balanced on offense and has good depth on defense. We won’t know for sure until we see how this matchup unfolds, and that’s what makes the playoffs exciting. Home-field advantage, a more explosive offense, and UND QB uncertainty have me leaning toward a close Tarleton State win.
Prediction: Tarleton State 31-27
#10 Abilene Christian at #7 SFA Prediction
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Abilene Christian
Stephen F. Austin
A regular-season rematch here. Abilene Christian hosted SFA and won 28-20 in early September. SFA jumped out to a 14-0 early lead before ACU scored 28 straight.
That was part of SFA’s 0-2 start, but the Lumberjacks have rattled off 10 straight since.
ACU is coming off an impressive 38-20 first-round win vs. Lamar in a game the Wildcats led 24-0. For comparison’s sake, SFA beat Lamar 26-15 in mid-November.
Some may think this will be a high-scoring game. However, both defenses are strong. SFA owns the No. 3 FCS scoring defense (15.3 PPG), No. 2 rushing defense (77.5 YPG), and the No. 14 passing defense (175.8 YPG). Jaydon Southard has racked up 110 tackles and 10.5 TFLs. ACU allows 119.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks No. 17 in the FCS. Rashon Myles Jr. and Will Shaffer both have over 100 tackles. The Wildcats can be attacked through the air, though, allowing 238.9 passing yards per game.
ACU’s Stone Earle has thrown for 3,079 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He’s also dangerous with his legs, rushing for 361 yards and 11 TDs. SFA’s Sam Vidlak has thrown for 2,090 yards, 18 TDs, and six interceptions. Javon Gipson (950 yards, 6 TDs for ACU) and SFA’s Kylon Harris (800 yards, 9 TDs) are great threats on the outside. SFA may have a slight edge on the ground behind Jerrell Wimbley’s 888 rushing yards and seven scores.
ACU meets the moment in big games. But SFA’s defense is legit. Coupled with a slightly more balanced offense and the home crowd, I’ll go with the Lumberjacks.
Prediction: SFA 28-21
#14 South Dakota State at #3 Montana Prediction
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South Dakota St
Montana
One of the tougher early-round games to predict in recent memory.
Is SDSU that good after blowing out New Hampshire 41-3 last week while enjoying the return of QB Chase Mason, who looked even better than he did before his injury? Or are we overreacting to a performance against an overmatched UNH team that didn’t show much interest in fighting back in the snow and cold after falling behind early?
Is there really a chance that Montana could exit the playoffs this early? After starting 11-0, looking like a national title contender, and losing a 50/50 game against a Montana State team that is up there as the most complete in the FCS?
Not only is Mason back, but SDSU standouts Chase Van Tol (LB) and Sam Hagen (RT) are back on the depth chart after not being listed for the last few weeks due to injury. Van Tol is the Chase Mason of SDSU’s defense. And Hagen is an NFL talent. Whether they play or not is TBD, but they are trending in that direction. All the mojo and momentum are on SDSU’s side after its season looked to be circling the drain until a Week 13 comeback win at UND. But again, is last week’s performance enough to erase the bad ball SDSU was playing down the stretch of the regular season?
Is allowing too many explosive plays no longer an issue? Montana is as explosive as it gets with QB Keali’i Ah Yat, RB Eli Gillman, WR/AP Michael Wortham, and WR Brooks Davis.
SDSU’s offensive line has gotten a much better push in the run game lately after shuffling some guys around. But is the o-line allowing too much penetration, an issue for much of this season, going to show itself again vs. a pressure-heavy Montana team? If the Grizzlies generate some negative-yardage plays to put SDSU in obvious passing situations, how well can Mason escape pressure when a Montana linebacker is coming off the edge or is quickly in his face on a double-A-gap blitz? Mason didn’t have to move around much last week, so it was hard to tell if he was still somewhat limited with his foot injury, which took several weeks to heal enough for him to play.
SDSU looked really good last week. I’m not sure we know just how good they are, though. Maybe the Jackrabbits are indeed back. Maybe UNH shouldn’t have been in the playoffs. We’ll find out soon.
The Jacks do look to have an edge in the trenches. Montana’s run defense couldn’t get off the field late in the Montana State game. Meanwhile, SDSU’s physical RB Julius Loughridge has looked much better in recent weeks.
Keep an eye on the weather. With rain and snow possible in Missoula, does that tip the scales in SDSU’s favor in this coin-flip matchup? Montana wants to get their guys in space. If the weather forces the teams to play this game in a phone booth, can Montana win that style of ball?
Staying ahead of the chains and getting touchdowns, not field goals, in the red zone are huge keys for SDSU. Winning 1-on-1s in the open field offensively and holding up against the run for all four quarters are crucial keys for Montana.
I have flip-flopped here plenty this week. My gut tells me SDSU’s rollercoaster season isn’t ready to be done yet. But my head tells me Montana is still a Top 2 threat to reach Nashville on this side of the bracket. It’s hard to see the Griz losing two straight at home.
Prediction: Montana 35-31
Yale at #2 Montana State Prediction
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Yale
Montana St
“How cool would it be to see the Ivy League champ go to one of the Dakotas or Montana teams for a game?”
What was once wishful thinking has turned into reality.
Yale’s epic comeback win at Youngstown State was quite the debut for the Ivy League in the FCS playoffs. It at least helped get people’s minds off of Harvard’s woeful performance at Villanova.
The Bulldogs may run into a buzzsaw Saturday, though, getting a glimpse of what it takes to compete at a top-tier FCS level.
MSU will need to contain the fantastic Josh Pitsenberger, who has rushed for 1,447 yards and 18 touchdowns. The Bobcats look up to the task, allowing 116.4 rushing yards per game, ranking No. 15 in the FCS. They have a stout d-line, led by Kenneth Eiden IV and Paul Brott. Cole Taylor has enjoyed a breakout season at linebacker. And safety Caden Dowler has been excellent as the Big Sky’s Defensive Player of the Year.
Offensively, the Cats have been rolling. Stanford transfer Justin Lamson has made this the most balanced MSU offense in quite some time, throwing for 2,345 yards, 20 TDs, and two interceptions. Teams can no longer sell out to stop the run, which is still a good rushing attack led by Julius Davis and Adam Jones, who have combined for over 1,500 yards on the ground.
MSU will key on LB Inumidun Ayo-Durojaiye (104 tackles). And Abu Kamara is one of the best overall defensive players in the FCS, tallying 70 tackles, two interceptions, and 11 pass breakups from his safety position.
MSU wins comfortably here.
Prediction: Montana State 38-17
#9 Rhode Island at #8 UC Davis Prediction
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Rhode Island
UC Davis
ESPN2 will broadcast this late-night game. It kicks off at 7 p.m. local time, 9 p.m. CT, and 10 p.m. for the Rhody body clocks.
It could turn into an entertaining one.
Devin Farrell has been excellent this year, ranking No. 2 in FCS passing yards with 3,452 while tossing 22 touchdowns to eight interceptions. Marquis Buchanan is one of the more talented receivers in the FCS, tallying 73 catches for 1,224 yards and six TDs. Greg Gaines III adds 935 receiving yards. It’s not just all passing for Rhody to do damage, though. Antwain Littleton Jr. has rushed for 1,125 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Rhody could find some success on a UC Davis defense that has lost several players to season-ending injuries. The Aggies are allowing 29.5 points per game, 181.7 rushing YPG, and 232.9 passing yards per game. Nothing to fear really, although the Rams have to contain Jacob Psyk on the d-line. He has been a disruptor with 15 TFLs, nine sacks, five QB hurries, and three forced fumbles.
UC Davis is also a highly entertaining offense. Caden Pinnick has had a dazzling freshman season, throwing for 2,527 yards and 24 touchdowns. He’s had some young mistakes, though, throwing eight interceptions, most of them in a three-week stretch. A.J. Pena looks to make his presence felt and get after Pinnick. Pena has registered 67 tackles, 19 TFLs, 10 sacks, and 11 QB hurries this season. Rhody allows just 19.2 points per game, ranking No. 17 in the FCS.
Rhody looks like the more complete team on paper. But the Rams also haven’t been tested a whole lot this season. Their best win is over New Hampshire, who just got blown out in the first round. UC Davis played at Montana State (a 38-17 loss), while also playing three teams who were in the playoff hunt (Southern Utah, Northern Arizona, and Sac State), going 3-0 in those games.
I expect this to be a close contest. It’s a key game for Rhody and the CAA, which is looking to get some respect from the playoff committee. There could be some late-game heroics here. If Pinnick takes care of the ball, Davis gets the win.
Prediction: UC Davis 35-31
