As weather presenters everywhere brace themselves for the inevitable festive forecast onslaught, have you ever wondered where our obsession with a white Christmas comes from, what it actually means, and – most importantly – whether we might actually get one this year?
What is the definition of a white Christmas, and how often do we get them in the UK?
The Met Office defines a White Christmas as a single snowflake falling in the UK in the 24 hours of Christmas Day, as observed by either an official Met Office observer or an automated weather station.
Interestingly, even if we had lying snow on the ground on Christmas Day, but no snow falling, this would not officially be counted as a white Christmas.
So by that broad definition, we get a white Christmas fairly often — roughly every two to three years but in terms of actual lying snow on the ground as we would imagine it on a Christmas card or in a film, is much more uncommon, only about once every six to ten years, and usually only in parts of Scotland or northern England where it tends to be colder.
Snow settles on Christmas trees being grown in Aberdeenshire, Scotland. Credit: PA
When will we know the Christmas forecast this year?
Unsurprisingly, the two most important factors for snow are temperature and moisture. A cold airmass, northerly winds bringing in Arctic air and a frontal system bringing in moisture would be a good recipe for snow.
Accurate and reliable detailed forecasts only tend to look around five days in advance, so the earliest available detail for Christmas Day will be available from the Met Office from around December 19.
Longer-range forecasts are available but tend to focus more on general trends of weather rather than day-to-day detail, as so much can change with the timings of weather systems and wind strength and direction.
Here is the latest long-range forecast for the Christmas period from the Met Office:
Wednesday December 17 – Wednesday December 31This period is likely to be changeable, with further spells of rain or showers and some strong winds at times, especially in the west. Hill snow is also a possibility, mainly in the north.
However, there is a greater chance of spells of high pressure during this period, bringing more in the way of dry weather compared to the unsettled patterns we are likely to see through the first couple of weeks of December. This will increase the chances of overnight fog and frost.
Overall, near or slightly above average temperatures are most likely, though some colder spells are also possible, especially should any prolonged settled spells develop.
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Where did our love of a white Christmas come from?
It’s easy to date when this seasonal obsession started: 1843 and the publication of Charles Dickens’ “A Christmas Carol.”
Dickens himself grew up during what we now refer to as “The Little Ice Age” – several hundred years where the climate was cooler overall, with some notable spells of exceptionally cold weather.
This period was the result of a number of natural factors occurring simultaneously: reduced solar activity (essentially, the earth was receiving less heat from the sun), increased volcanic activity (additional particles in the atmosphere reflecting the heat of the sun, leading again to less heat reaching the earth), and changes in ocean circulation and sea ice expansion.
Even when snow does settle on Christmas Day, it is typically only seen in Scotland and Northern parts of the country. Credit: PA
Dickens will have grown up seeing frequent heavy snow and temperatures cold enough to freeze the Thames, sometimes solidly enough for winter festivals to be held on the frozen waters! This was normal life for him, and so unsurprisingly, these lived experiences worked their way into the pages of his stories.
It was in this year too that the first Christmas cards were sent, and, thanks to the huge popularity of A Christmas Carol, it was only a few years later that mass-produced Christmas cards began to depict the snow-covered villages, horse-drawn sleighs and carol singers in the snow.
What impact did Hollywood have on the connection between snow and Christmas?
A huge one! In 1942, nearly 100 years after Charles Dickens published A Christmas Carol, Bing Crosby’s song White Christmas was released and became the best-selling single of all time, shifting 50 million copies worldwide, which forever inextricably linked the season with the snow.
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Although the song was originally from Holiday Inn, the final icing on the (Christmas) cake came in the form of Bing’s 1954 musical film White Christmas – the romantic story of how a lack of snow nearly ruined a ski lodge business which is, of course, saved when two suitably handsome entertainers team up with a sister act to perform a Christmas show.
On Christmas Eve, during the show’s finale, snow finally begins to fall, saving the lodge and delivering the film’s emotional climax as everyone sings White Christmas.
The film became one of the most-watched films ever made and continues to air every holiday season over 70 years later!
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