Rochester city hall Christmas tree installed creatively
City employees lifted a 25-foot Norway spruce into the atrium of City Hall on Nov. 24.
Christmas is nearly upon us and approaching, and much of the country have seen a glimpse (or feet) of snow already this winter season. But what are the chances of having a white Christmas in New York state in 2025?
It’s too early for meteorologists to say with much certainty where there will be enough snow to count as a white Christmas. To qualify, according to the National Weather Service, there must be at least one inch of snow on the ground on Dec. 25.
On Friday, Dec. 5, about 45% of the country was covered by snow, after recent snowstorms in parts of the Midwest, New England and Mid-Atlantic. More rounds of snow and arctic air are expected in the coming days and weeks, according to meteorologists.
Though the available data gives us a good idea of the chances of a white Christmas, NOAA says “the actual conditions in any year may vary widely from these because the weather patterns present will determine the snow on the ground or snowfall on Christmas day.”
Still, historical weather data can give us an idea of the odds throughout the nation – including in New York state.
White Christmas in New York state
With a wide variety of terrain in New York, the probability in securing a white Christmas is also vast. Much of the Adirondacks are typically snow-covered around the holidays, while New York City – although festive – often does not see snow pile up in time for Christmas.
Looking at the NOAA map – which is based on U.S. climate normals – the Adirondacks appear to have between a 90% and 100% chance of a white Christmas while Long Island has less than a 10% chance.
Last year, however, New York City had its first white Christmas in 15 years with an inch of snow on the ground in Central Park.
The Weather Service also recorded a snow depth of 4 inches at the Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport on the 2024 holiday. It’s only the second time in six years that Rochester tallied enough snow depth to qualify, and the greatest amount since 6 inches covered the ground in 2017.
According to the Weather Service, Binghamton has a 67% chance of recording an inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, based on Weather Service climate records. Historically, there’s a 63% chance for Syracuse, a 58% chance for Buffalo, 56% chance for Rochester and a 46% chance for Elmira, according to the Weather Service.
States with the best and worst chances of a white Christmas
In any given year, your best bet for a white Christmas is in Minnesota, Maine, upstate New York, Idaho or some of the snowiest mountain ranges in the country, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which produced a map of the probabilities for a white Christmas based on climate data from 1991 to 2020.
The least likely spots for a snowy Christmas scene? The West Coast, Deep South and Gulf Coast, according to the NOAA data.
Map shows the historical chances of a white Christmas
Includes reporting by USA Today network
