Every fantasy manager knows that schedule strength can greatly impact fantasy player performance. The more granular one can get in matchups, the better.
My matchup points system uses various fantasy points and allowed metrics as a base. Then, variables such as the likelihood of a team getting into a high-scoring game and pass-blocking/pass-rush strength are added. These combined grades are then placed on a curve and given a 1-100 score, with 1 being the least favorable and 100 being the most favorable.
Keep in mind these grades are all based on fantasy-scoring relevance. For example, as detailed in my soft secondaries and the receivers who’ll benefit most from them in fantasy football article, a defensive back who has a low yards per attempt (YPA) allowed but a low PPR fantasy points per game (FPPG) allowed will be graded as a favorable matchup in this system.
Over the years, I have found that the most valuable part of the weekly schedule strength analysis is on the outer margins, which this article will cover. It will highlight players with a matchup points total of 80 or higher and detail those with a total of 20 or lower.
Now that we’ve covered the basics, let’s move on to the best and worst matchups for Week 15. The list below shows the entire scope of players with favorable and unfavorable matchups. I’ll highlight players from each positional list, beginning with quarterbacks.
Metrics are via TruMedia/PFF, Stathead or NFL Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted. Point references are in PPR unless otherwise noted.
Most favorable Week 15 matchups
Quarterbacks
Jaxson Dart, NYG (vs. WSH)
You may be considering sitting Dart because he posted his lowest score of the season in his last start. Don’t make that error. Washington’s defense has the second-highest YPA allowed on vertical passes since Week 11. Dart is a top-five QB in Week 15.
Baker Mayfield, TB (vs. ATL)
Mayfield’s issue lately has been vertical pass production. He’s 33rd in vertical FPPG since Week 11. That should change against a Falcons defense that is 29th in vertical FPPG allowed since Week 11. Mayfield has mid-tier QB1 potential in this contest.
Running backs
Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary, NYG (vs. WSH)
Tracy and Singletary have each posted double-digit point totals in two of the Giants’ past three games. This matchup could see them both post 10+ points. Washington has allowed 20.8 FPPG on planned rushing plays since Week 11.
Quinshon Judkins, CLE (at CHI)
Judkins has scored a single-digit point total in four of his past eight starts, including a 9.4-point game against Tennessee last week, but Chicago ranks 23rd in planned rush FPPG allowed over the past four weeks. Be sure to start Judkins this week.
Tight ends
Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely, BAL (at CIN)
Cincinnati has shored up some parts of its defense. Tight end coverage isn’t one of them. The Bengals have allowed a league-worst 26.4 FPPG to tight ends since Week 11. Andrews and Likely should both be in most starting lineups this week.
Theo Johnson, NYG (vs. WSH)
Washington’s tight end coverage isn’t as bad as the Bengals’, but it’s not far behind. The Commanders rank 30th in TE FPPG over the past month. Johnson scored 10+ points in four of his past five games. He should make it five out of six in this one.
Kyle Pitts, ATL (at TB)
Pitts has scored 30.2 points over the past two weeks — a scoring trend that should continue against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed an 80% completion rate and 8.3 YPA to tight ends over the past four weeks.
Wide receivers
Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin, TB (vs. ATL)
The Falcons’ aforementioned vertical pass coverage woes should carry over to benefit the Buccaneers’ wide receiving corps. Egbuka could break out of his scoring slump in this matchup, and Godwin could have his third straight game with 10+ points.
Least favorable Week 15 matchups
Quarterback
Dak Prescott, DAL (vs. MIN)
Prescott has been a matchup-proof QB for nearly every game this year. There have been exceptions, such as Week 1 against the Eagles (7.8 points) and Week 8 against Denver (6.6 points). This game has floor potential for Prescott. You shouldn’t automatically bench Dallas’ franchise quarterback, but if you have multiple impact QB options, then consider it.
Running backs
Bam Knight, ARI (at HOU)
Arizona could deploy a platoon or committee approach, making it hard to start Knight in any matchup. Against Houston, which ranks eighth in planned rush FPPG since Week 11, Knight’s a sit in most leagues.
Breece Hall, NYJ (at JAX)
Hall has posted 8.4 or fewer points in two of his past four games. This matchup has that same downside potential. Jacksonville has allowed the lowest planned rush FPPG and the lowest planned rush yards per carry over the past four weeks. Sit Hall if you can.
Tight ends
Jake Ferguson, DAL (vs. MIN)
Ferguson hasn’t been an impact scorer since Week 7. A matchup against a Vikings defense that has allowed only 8.7 FPPG to tight ends over the past month suggests the low-scoring trend will continue. Don’t bench Ferguson outright, given the lack of depth at this position. Do strongly consider alternatives at this position or at flex if Ferguson typically slots there on your squad.
Brenton Strange, JAX (vs. NYJ)
Strange is a TE quandary. He posted 27.8 points in Weeks 12-13 but followed that up with only 5.7 points in Week 14. The Jets’ defense has given up only 9.3 FPPG to tight ends since Week 11. You may want to find another TE option in Week 15.
Juwan Johnson, NO (vs. CAR)
Johnson scored 10+ points in five straight weeks before hitting a slump over the past two games. Carolina has allowed 5.7 YPA to tight ends over the past four weeks, meaning the slump could continue.
Wide receivers
Michael Pittman, IND (at SEA)
Pittman scored 16.9 points last week despite Daniel Jones’ season-ending Achilles injury, but Seattle boasts one of the league’s best defenses. The Seahawks have three superb cornerbacks in Josh Jobe, Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon, and have allowed only 1.1 FPPG on vertical passes the past four weeks. Find a higher percentage play this week.
